Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?

[MelroseHawkins]

I'm sorry too.

 

[GoHawks12345]

On a lighter topic..

Can we talk about how TK suggested our local law enforcement who are attempting to enforce stay-at-home orders are Nazi's?

 

[Northside Hawk]

I mean, isn't this just math?

The virus got from Wuhan, through a lock down, to NY, CA, IL, FL, etc. You don't think this is going to get everywhere?

What percentage of the population would need to be exposed before we achieve herd immunization? 60% at least from what I understand. That would be more than 1 or 2 million at a less than 1% mortality rate.

The reason the UK changed course it because it was so clear their health care system would be overwhelmed with that approach. And when preventable deaths aren't prevented, the rate goes a lot higher than 1%.

So otherwise we are on a lock down/self isolation policy for the next 12-18 months. And Trump is thinking of telling people to end it come Easter.

You go right on ahead and self isolate for 12-18 months, ruin your summer, miss weddings, grad parties, holiday gatherings and the whole works. Medical experts, not politicians but medical experts, are saying we should control this in the next eight weeks if we continue to do what we are doing. And that doesn't take into account the possible effects of warmer weather.

The numbers are going to go up for a bit longer. Give it seven to ten days and the numbers will mean more. Thats not me or Trump talking, that's medical exprts.

 

[GoHawks12345]

You go right on ahead and self isolate for 12-18 months, ruin your summer, miss weddings, grad parties, holiday gatherings and the whole works. Medical experts, not politicians but medical experts, are saying we should control this in the next eight weeks if we continue to do what we are doing. And that doesn't take into account the possible effects of warmer weather.

The numbers are going to go up for a bit longer. Give it seven to ten days and the numbers will mean more. Thats not me or Trump talking, that's medical exprts.

Dude, if you want the virus just go get the virus.

Otherwise, it's not going anywhere until there is a vaccine or herd immunization. And neither of those things are happening in the next 8 weeks.

 

[Northside Hawk]

I

Small world, went to school with this fellow’s younger brother. The family lived on Ruch St very close to St Columbkils. He was about 72 I’m figuring.

A South Sider.

There was a time, a couple generations before I came along, where if you were Irish living on the heavily German north side of Dubuque hell would come to breakfast.

Fortunately I was an exception. But I was around when St Mary's catered to German Catholics in Dubuque and st Patrick's cater to Irish, and the churches were three blocks from each other.

Growing up Irish in Dubuque north of 17th Street? You were playing with fire back in the day.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Dude, if you want the virus just go get the virus.

Otherwise, it's not going anywhere until there is a vaccine or herd immunization. And neither of those things are happening in the next 8 weeks.

Whatever. Then Three medical experts that I heard today have no idea what their talking about.

You can't isolate for a year and you know it. Take you babble elsewhere.

 

[GoHawks12345]

Whatever. Then Three medical experts that I heard today have no idea what their talking about.

You can't isolate for a year and you know it. Take you babble elsewhere.

I don't really know how people will behave. How they will react when they start seeing people they know pass away.

Or if they feel they are financially getting crushed and they just need to take risks.

I just don't want people take those risks because someone told them non of this was a big deal. Or that it's safe now, or in 8 weeks, when it isn't.

 

[PCHawk]

It sounds like the plan is to go extreme to get the spread under control. Once it's under control, we do just enough to to keep it under control. That means it will still spread around, just not fast enough to overwhelm the system. If it starts to spread too fast again, stiffen the rules again to regain control. That's how we live until there is a vaccine. If people want to isolate for a year, they can. High risk probably should.

 

[PCHawk]

Whatever. Then Three medical experts that I heard today have no idea what their talking about.

You can't isolate for a year and you know it. Take you babble elsewhere.

Did the 3 experts say in 8 weeks we will be free to do whatever we want? I hope so. I'm just not sure that was the message.

 

[GoHawks12345]

It sounds like the plan is to go extreme to get the spread under control. Once it's under control, we do just enough to to keep it under control. That means it will still spread around, just not fast enough to overwhelm the system. If it starts to spread too fast again, stiffen the rules again to regain control. That's how we live until there is a vaccine. If people want to isolate for a year, they can. High risk probably should.

That largely is the plan. Although the 2nd wave isn't really a matter of "if". The models that don't have 2nd waves are those where in the first wave, everyone gets it.

It's hard to speculate beyond there.

But reasonable to assume that even in a relaxed version of social isolation policy, the economy will still be f'ed.

 

[ModebaSan]

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

I'm not one of them. My ability to provide for my family is greatly impacted by how severe this ends up being. If that drug starts being used soon and keeps people from dying, then I'll technically be wrong. But I wont go into the poor house and have to beg for food so my little kids can eat. I choose being wrong.

So do you not see the numbers on how quickly this is escalating? Or do you think it just magically stops once it gets really big?

I see the numbers. I believe New York is an anomaly IMO. 60% of the US cases are isolated to that region. NY, NY, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. They are on top of each other and people For most part live on top of each other. Look at the State of Washington. They have tested 32,000 people and have 2,400 cases. I trust that the things being put in place will stem the tide of this very soon. Will it end it all probably not but it’s going to help alot, but it’s not going to eliminate it until we have a Vaccine but it will lower the total deaths.

Plus will also soon be testing people to see who has already had it. I truly believe that number will be huge. People who didn’t even know they had it or thought just had the flu. I’m trying to stay optimistic!!

 

[PCHawk]

That largely is the plan. Although the 2nd wave isn't really a matter of "if". The models that don't have 2nd waves are those where in the first wave, everyone gets it.

It's hard to speculate beyond there.

But reasonable to assume that even in a relaxed version of social isolation policy, the economy will still be f'ed.

The longer we push off the 2nd wave, the better we will be prepared for it. If the 2nd wave is 3 months away, we would theoretically use that time to raise the health care line.

 

[PCHawk]

I see the numbers. I believe New York is an anomaly IMO. 60% of the US cases are isolated to that region. NY, NY, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. They are on top of each other and people For most part live on top of each other. Look at the State of Washington. They have tested 32,000 people and have 2,400 cases. I trust that the things being put in place will stem the tide of this very soon. Will it end it all probably not but it’s going to help alot, but it’s not going to eliminate it until we have a Vaccine but it will lower the total deaths.

But think of all the people who fly into New York compared to Washington. Washington could very well only had 1-5 people come into the state with it, then it grows from there. There is a high probability that way more people came into New York with it. Which means they are weeks ahead of Washington. You're right tho that it will always be worse there because of how crowded it is. You're also right that the things that are being put into place are going to help stem the tide. But the thing is, those things being put into place to stem the tide are things you're upset about, calling them over reactions.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

The longer we push off the 2nd wave, the better we will be prepared for it. If the 2nd wave is 3 months away, we would theoretically use that time to raise the health care line.[/QUOT


i think for people like us that live in the midwest that will be much easier to accomplish than say a NY or LA

 

[PCHawk]

Minnessota shut down. Made me wonder why we are waiting. A friend brought up a good possibility. They need as many people sick as possible without overloading the system, to push this thing through as fast as possible. Shutting down too early makes the first wave too small. We might need three waves of we do that,. Which would be worse on the economy.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

But think of all the people who fly into New York compared to Washington. Washington could very well only had 1-5 people come into the state with it, then it grows from there. There is a high probability that way more people came into New York with it. Which means they are weeks ahead of Washington. You're right tho that it will always be worse there because of how crowded it is. You're also right that the things that are being put into place are going to help stem the tide. But the thing is, those things being put into place to stem the tide are things you're upset about, calling them over reactions.

I’m not upset at all about the things that have been put in place. I’m lucky enough to be with a mfg that is deemed essential. I’m in Minnesota and think we doing the right things and have Shelter in place order starting 3/27 to 4/10.

 

[GoHawks12345]

The longer we push off the 2nd wave, the better we will be prepared for it. If the 2nd wave is 3 months away, we would theoretically use that time to raise the health care line.

The 2nd wave is predicted for Oct/Nov I think. I don't know what they base that off. I'm sure they will have a better prediction after the outcome of phase 1.

But I assume social fatigue for self isolation is a big component.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Minnessota shut down. Made me wonder why we are waiting. A friend brought up a good possibility. They need as many people sick as possible without overloading the system, to push this thing through as fast as possible. Shutting down too early makes the first wave too small. We might need three waves of we do that,. Which would be worse on the economy.

State of Minnesota has s total 235 open ICU beds available 17 I think right now have covid19 patients and that could be wrong but i know out of 282 cases 26 are hospitalized and 122 no longer need to be quarantined. MN has tested a total of 6365 people to date.

 

[tksirius]

On a lighter topic..

Can we talk about how TK suggested our local law enforcement who are attempting to enforce stay-at-home orders are Nazi's?

I never said your local law enforcement was attempting that. I have no idea which trailer park you live in.