Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?

[Northside Hawk]

That's probably exactly when I started saying it. Two weeks later it's a lot worse. Pretty much the exact line I figured it would be on. Now I predict in two more weeks it will be 5000 deaths per day. Then it will stay that high for at least a couple more weeks before it slowly declines. Hopefully anyways. That part isn't obvious yet because we haven't watched other countries go through that part yet. Other than China, who is full of shit. And you say Illinois is doing good? They have 200 deaths and 25% of them came today. In a few weeks they will be having 250 deaths per day.

I said the Illinois counties close to Iowa are doing good.

Counties in the Chicago metro area? Not so we'll.

Illinois biggest issue is that Fred Flintstone look alike governor of theirs. He looks like the type of guy that every City in this country has on their local cable teleprogramming commission board.

 

[PCHawk]

Obviously, there will be a period when deaths stay the same even as cases fall, or keep rising after cases flatten out

It's the same lag principle that causes the warmest time of the day to usually be late afternoon, even though the sun is most intense between 11 and 2. Or that late July/early August is usually the warmest time of the year, six weeks after days have gotten shorter.

There will be some lag involved. The Mississippi River will still remain high long after the snow that caused it to rise has long since melted. All due to lag.

So do you not think we are going to be seeing 5000 deaths a day soon or do you think those numbers are no big deal? I think you understand that the social distancing is helping the numbers. So if they are 5000 per day in 2 weeks, what would they be without social distancing? No one knows obviously. But we gotta assume they would be considerably higher.

 

[PCHawk]

I said the Illinois counties close to Iowa are doing good.

Counties in the Chicago metro area? Not so we'll.

Illinois biggest issue is that Fred Flintstone look alike governor of theirs. He looks like the type of guy that every City in this country has on their local cable teleprogramming commission board.

What did the governor do to make more people die?

 

[Northside Hawk]

So do you not think we are going to be seeing 5000 deaths a day soon or do you think those numbers are no big deal? I think you understand that the social distancing is helping the numbers. So if they are 5000 per day in 2 weeks, what would they be without social distancing? No one knows obviously. But we gotta assume they would be considerably higher.

Oh we could see it.

But it would take days of it to get to the 50,000 deaths I predicted about ten days ago, and months of it to get to the one million deaths others are predicting.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The problem is that you can have the virus and Pass it to others even though you have tested negative.

That is not what asymptomatic means though. That is what I am pointing out.

What you are describing is a false negative test result. Now you open another can of worms because we do not have a report or know what the false neg rate is.

Asymptomatic is having the disease and describing the time (incubation period) the Pt initially contracted the virus to when they start to show symptoms. This is important to know to help understand the spread and how contagious it is. Obviously people are roaming around with the virus for a couple weeks without knowing they have it. Most likely they would test positive.

We are pretty much understanding the same thing. I think you are confused that you think a Pt is asymptomatic if their test comes back neg (even though they are really positive). That is not quite what they mean when they describe a positive carrier as being asymptomatic. Again, you are describing a false negative test finding.

 

[Northside Hawk]

What did the governor do to make more people die?

He is trying to "rally the troops" with his daily rah-rah speeches and pump sunshine up their hind quarters.

If this backfires on him, look out. Chicago doesn't mess around. Anyone remember the 1968 democratic convention?

 

[PCHawk]

Oh we could see it.

But it would take weeks of it to get to the 50,000 deaths I predicted about ten days ago, and months of it to get to the one million deaths others are predicting.

Italy's biggest day is just under 1000 and they have something like 14,000 deaths. They are barely over their peak. If our trajectory stays identical to theirs (which it's been this whole time) we will have have 5 times more deaths when we reach our peak. That's 70,000 deaths. Double that for the way back down and its 140,000. I think that is bare minimum deaths. My fear is we will hit that number months before they get a vaccine so the numbers will slowly count up from there until everyone is vaccinated.

 

[PCHawk]

He is trying to "rally the troops" with his daily rah-rah speeches and pump sunshine up their hind quarters.

If this backfires on him, look out. Chicago doesn't mess around. Anyone remember the 1968 democratic convention?

How does rallying troops cause more deaths?

 

[tksirius]

 

[tksirius]

 

[Northside Hawk]

How does rallying troops cause more deaths?

Keep a city like Chicago penned up for six weeks as spring fever approaches and you will find out.

He has coined a new slogan as he treats his states citizens like caged animals: ALL IN ILLINOIS!

Does this mean T-shirts and hats and beer coozies are being printed as we speak?

 

[AIRHAWK]

We may reach 1 million cases. But we won't come close to 1 million deaths.

These are the same dinglesnorts who have said for forty years that global warming will make sea levels rise, that humans can affect climate change.

They haven't and we can't. We're not that powerful.

These are same milletoasts who tried unsuccessfully to impeach Trump, and now are willing to ride the economy into the gutter to get him to resign. Raise your hand if you think things would be back to normal in ten days if Trump resigned tonight.

No one reports how many negative tests are confirmed daily.

No one reports how many people have recovered from the virus.

No one reports how Trump ordered all incoming flights from China to cease, while Nancy Pelosi encouraged California resident to soak up Chinese New year parades/celebrations.

Remember how Trump was accused of xenophobia? Now he's accused of slow reaction.

Don Henley was right. The evening news is loving this shit and they are pouring gas on the fear fire. They report the deaths, "another positive case reported today" , but say nothing about the number of negative cases. They find a clip of an ambulance and tag it to this virus as if they are picking up sick patients off street corners. Pretty soon Gov. Cuomo will report a shortage of ambulances and we dont have enough stretchers. Gimme gimme gimme. I am not poo pooing this thing but I also think the hysteria is a bit much. The truth is somewhere in the middle. The worst part is this reaction is ruining peoples lives much more than virus ever will. These clips of nurses singing Amazing Grace as if the end is near is more hype. STAY HOME!!! HIDE UNDER YOUR BED! Sheep do exactly what the talking heads tell them to do.

 

[HawkU]

From an editorial by Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D. in the New England Journal of Medicine:

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

Full editorial here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?articleTools=true

Maybe the title of their editorial should be - We Were Wrong and This Is Our Confession

 

[revkev73]

Virus was manufactured in a Chinese military lab not far from the animal market.

We can't protest, because we shipped 95% of our medicine production to China.

 

[#1DieHardHawk]

I think the US is ranked in the thirties for healthcare outcomes of only the top 50 industrialized countries. Not good. Lots of people die of staph infections in hospitals in this country. Dont go get cut unless you absolutely have to.

The U.S. healthcare system is far from perfect but statistical analyses that control for comorbities have shown that we have world-leading healthcare for numerous conditions. Comparing national healthcare systems without controlling for comorbid factors is a false equivalency.

For example, Michael Moore loves to tout the Cuban and Canadian healthcare systems, but does anybody with a logical mind think that their results would be the same if every Cuban or Canadian looked like Michael Moore?

The U.S. has literally double the rate of obesity compared to the average of a cohort of well-developed industrialized nations, and also leads the same group with the highest rates of Type 2 Diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

Where the U.S. falters in a big way is in preventative healthcare. Countries with nationalized healthcare systems for decades have experienced significant financial pressure to focus on prevention, and, inherently, have the ability to leverage prevention with the populace.

Paradoxically, it could be argued that the private system within the U.S. faces financial pressure to reduce prevention to maintain profits (not to imply that I necessarily share that view, but it is a narrative that conspiracy theorists love to promote).

 

[#1DieHardHawk]

From an editorial by Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D. in the New England Journal of Medicine:

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

Full editorial here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMe2002387?articleTools=true

Maybe the title of their editorial should be - We Were Wrong and This Is Our Confession

Virus was manufactured in a Chinese military lab not far from the animal market.

We can't protest, because we shipped 95% of our medicine production to China.

They've already ruled out that the virus was "manufactured" by looking at the sequencing. There is no evidence for splicing of genetic material, which is what is found in modified viruses. That said, it is quite possible that China was attempting to isolate known highly contagious viruses for germ warfare purposes, and that this particular virus got away from them. It's a theory that has legs and is gaining ground.

It is quite possible that when it's all said and done, that the mortality rate from COVID will be similar to H1N1, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the danger also is equivalent. It's becoming apparent that COVID is much more contagious than the flu.Combined with the longer latency period, the result is a much higher number of fatalities worldwide when an outbreak occurs. In other words, the mortality rate may be similar, but the number of deaths may be much higher.

 

[uihawk82]

I comprehend compounding interest perfectly.

I used that exact term earlier in this thread when I said the numbers would still go up for at least a week even after social distance was (reasonably) followed.

I also pointed out a on actuarial equation on factoral numbers. 7 factoral (7x6x5 and on down to 1) is 5,040. 10 is not much bigger than 7, but 10 factoral is 3,628,800, a staggering difference.

That is an indication on how seven people could potentially spread this vs how ten people potentially could.

I still think claims of potentially a million deaths in this country are grossly exaggerated, unless the peak shifts to June or July, and nothing has indicated that it will.

I dont think I said you couldnt or didnt understand compounding interest.

Looking that todays global covid numbers it appears the death rate is about 5%. But I would say since testing is so woeful in the US, UK and other areas that the total number of cases is much more which would drastically decrease the death rate. China may have many more infected without hardly any more deaths to also skew the death rate higher.

So I am hopeful the death rate is much lower and with smaller peaks in cases the death rate and total numbers in the US is much smaller than predicted.

But if everyone kept mingling in the US it would be easy to see 60 million citizens, which is only one in 5.5 people, getting the virus and therefore at even a 1% death rate that would be 600,000 people which would be a national disaster. This is why the experts are trying to shut this down by stay in place etc so that there is healthcare for those who need it.

Those reports from Italy of people finding people dead at home are really bad and show they were swamped caring for so many sick.

 

[uihawk82]

Science’s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center.

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has given a boost to an unsettling idea: that the novel coronavirus can spread through the air—not just through the large droplets emitted in a cough or sneeze. Though current studies aren’t conclusive, “the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing,” Harvey Fineberg, who heads a standing committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, wrote in a 1 April letter to Kelvin Droegemeier, head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Thus far, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other health agencies have insisted the primary route of transmission for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is through the larger respiratory droplets, up to 1 millimeter across, that people expel when they cough and sneeze. Gravity grounds these droplets within 1 or 2 meters, although they deposit the virus on surfaces, from which people can pick it up and infect themselves by touching their mouth, nose, or eyes. But if the coronavirus can be suspended in the ultrafine mist that we produce when we exhale, protection becomes more difficult, strengthening the argument that all people should wear masks in public to reduce unwitting transmission of the virus from asymptomatic carriers.

If covid virus could exist outside of very small droplets basically by itself floating and suspended in the air for long periods of time we would be totally screwed at the mercy of widespread airborne disease.

 

[HawkU]

Virus was manufactured in a Chinese military lab not far from the animal market.

We can't protest, because we shipped 95% of our medicine production to China.

Since you didn't read the editorial this is not what it's about.

 

[tksirius]

https://nationalfile.com/president-...fauci-has-a-100-million-conflict-of-interest/