Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?

[Northside Hawk]

Giving examples of exponential growth went over some people's heads. I totally get that. I will try to do better.

But it wasn't political. That's where you need to do better.

Im pretty good at admitting when I'm wrong (which so far I'm not in this case) or when I overplayed my hand.

I can ease up on the throttle a bit. But I will defend my opinions.

 

[PCHawk]

Hey Northside, it seems like you are arguing that the cautions we are taking are helping a lot, and we shouldn't be taking cautions because the numbers are low, both at the same time. Am I wrong on that?

 

[uihawk82]

At the start of March, we had 65 active cases in the US.
By the end of March, we had 177,000.
A 2700 fold increase.


We are starting the month of April with 5102 deaths...
By the end of April... You think 1,000,000 is unreasonable?
A 2700 fold increase would be 13.8 million.

I used stats from here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It is amazing how the numbers increase even with just a doubling every 4 days. I guess some people cannot comprehend just like they cannot comprehend compounding interest.

 

[Northside Hawk]

A negative test result doesn't mean that person is never going to get it. The only thing it shows is not a lot of the population has it yet. Which we should all already know considering there was 1 case of it a short couple months ago. And if you want to talk about recovered cases, that's not going to put this in a good light. You have confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases. Look at the number of recovered vs number of deaths and it's a horrible percentage. Add in the 80% of people who probably never got tested because they never showed symptoms and it's still a pretty ugly number.

Well over a quarter million confirmed cases (275,586)

Well under 10,000 deaths (7,087, many of which had pre existing health hazards)

Mortality rate. 2.6%, many of them already high risk

 

[uihawk82]

There is no evidence that UV rays kill this virus.

I think I was the first on these threads to repeat a statement by Dr. Joseph Fair, virologist and epidemiologist, who has worked in Africa fighting Ebola. He said it is the increased UV radiation from the Sun in summer time that inactivates viruses and this should be very easy to prove in the laboratory. This guy is an expert.

But I will research this now that you said there is no evidence.

 

[Northside Hawk]

It is amazing how the numbers increase even with just a doubling every 4 days. I guess some people cannot comprehend just like they cannot comprehend compounding interest.

I comprehend compounding interest perfectly.

I used that exact term earlier in this thread when I said the numbers would still go up for at least a week even after social distance was (reasonably) followed.

I also pointed out a on actuarial equation on factoral numbers. 7 factoral (7x6x5 and on down to 1) is 5,040. 10 is not much bigger than 7, but 10 factoral is 3,628,800, a staggering difference.

That is an indication on how seven people could potentially spread this vs how ten people potentially could.

I still think claims of potentially a million deaths in this country are grossly exaggerated, unless the peak shifts to June or July, and nothing has indicated that it will.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Hey Northside, it seems like you are arguing that the cautions we are taking are helping a lot, and we shouldn't be taking cautions because the numbers are low, both at the same time. Am I wrong on that?

You keep saying just wait a week. Wait two weeks.

You've been saying it since mid March. Am I wrong on that?

I think Iowa is doing a hell of a job. And counties in Wisconsin and Illinois bordering Iowa are also doing well.

 

[uihawk82]

There is no evidence that UV rays kill this virus.

From a webmd article:

"As the researchers explained, broad-spectrum UVC light kills viruses and bacteria, and it is currently used to decontaminate surgical equipment. But this type of light can cause skin cancer and cataracts, so it's not used in public spaces."

From an NIH research study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/

"UV radiation from the sun is the primary germicide in the environment. The goal of this study was to estimate inactivation of viruses by solar exposure.

Included in Table Table66 are estimated times for virus inactivation by midday solar exposure for each location and date. We selected the most UV-sensitive (Filoviridae) among the families of viruses of potential interest in biodefense (Table (Table4).4). The estimates of midday virus inactivation in Table Table66 range from 20 min to well over 1 hour for 1-log inactivation (10% survival). This indicates that some viruses could be inactivated by solar radiation rather quickly, while other, less-UV-sensitive virus types could persist for a long time."

So UV radiation does kill or inactivate viruses. But that is usually in the air and on surfaces. The problem with covid is it is in our bodies and spread by exhaling coughing or sneezing on people very near us or people touching droplets or the virus and then picking their noses, etc.

 

[thedukeofearl]

Yea, take this for what it's worth. I don't know the guy and never met this guy before. It was just casual conversation while I was checking out at a gas station. Was checking out and this guy was explaining how his mother is a nurse back in New Jersey and said how she told him "It's really bad out here and you have no idea what's coming". She said there is just nothing they can do and people his age (he must have been in his 30's) were coming into the hospitals and dying.

Now, we've heard that those at risk of dying are the elderly and/or those with some chronic health conditions. I don't know if all is true and we are being told the truth with the % stated in the media with a low % of healthy people, or if this guy was exaggerating. Again, I don't know him from a hill of beans but seemed like a decent guy.

So, are we being told the truth or are they suppressing the numbers to prevent panic and chaos?

Not easy to say. We probably aren't getting the full truth because the virus spreads so silently and quickly. Also since it is asymptomatic people who have the virus can test clean and still infect others with it.

Asymptomatic: Without symptoms. For example, an asymptomatic infection is an infection with no symptoms.

That is the scary/worst aspect of it.

 

[thedukeofearl]

I was talking about normal breathing which is the 6 foot safe distance. You are correct that coughing and sneezing can expel these droplets 5 to 200 times farther but 30 feet is a good assumption from NIH articles I read.

Plus if you are out on a windy day the wind will carry the droplets farther as gravity takes them to the ground. The few times I have talked to people outside during this pandemic I have tried to have all the people with me line up on a parallel line with the wind.

Without wind the droplets accelerate and fall to the ground just like any projectile shot out horizontally. The NIH site had a Wells chart to show this fall to the ground based on droplet size which is affected by air resistance.

Science’s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center.

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has given a boost to an unsettling idea: that the novel coronavirus can spread through the air—not just through the large droplets emitted in a cough or sneeze. Though current studies aren’t conclusive, “the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing,” Harvey Fineberg, who heads a standing committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, wrote in a 1 April letter to Kelvin Droegemeier, head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Thus far, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other health agencies have insisted the primary route of transmission for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is through the larger respiratory droplets, up to 1 millimeter across, that people expel when they cough and sneeze. Gravity grounds these droplets within 1 or 2 meters, although they deposit the virus on surfaces, from which people can pick it up and infect themselves by touching their mouth, nose, or eyes. But if the coronavirus can be suspended in the ultrafine mist that we produce when we exhale, protection becomes more difficult, strengthening the argument that all people should wear masks in public to reduce unwitting transmission of the virus from asymptomatic carriers.

 

[tksirius]

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Not easy to say. We probably aren't getting the full truth because the virus spreads so silently and quickly. Also since it is asymptomatic people who have the virus can test clean and still infect others with it.

Asymptomatic: Without symptoms. For example, an asymptomatic infection is an infection with no symptoms.

That is the scary/worst aspect of it.

One should still test positive though. This is during the incubation period when the individual is a host but not showing symptoms at that time. That DOES NOT mean that they would test neg because they are asymptomatic.

Asymptomatic means they have a disease but are not exhibiting symptoms. Asymptomatic people typically don't get tested, unless you are of fame and have been around someone who was proven to have it.

They are asymptomatic during the long incubation period is what this is meaning, which with COVID can be up to 14 days. The incubation period for typical influenza-A or B is usually 3 days, sometimes up to 5.

 

[CP87]

Well over a quarter million confirmed cases (275,586)

Well under 10,000 deaths (7,087, many of which had pre existing health hazards)

Mortality rate. 2.6%, many of them already high risk

The deaths lag the new cases by about a week to a week and a half.

A week to a week and a half ago, the US was getting between 11,000 - 19,000 new cases per day, and over the last four days, the deaths have been 900 - 1,300.

Our last 2 days there have been around 30,000 new cases per day. In a week or so, there will be 3,000 deaths per day. That would be the case even if there were 0 new cases added in the interim between now and then. Of course, new cases are still higher every day than they were the day before.

 

[PCHawk]

Well over a quarter million confirmed cases (275,586)

Well under 10,000 deaths (7,087, many of which had pre existing health hazards)

Mortality rate. 2.6%, many of them already high risk

Yes the mortality rate is only kinda shitty. Coupled with the contagion rate it's really shitty.

 

[thedukeofearl]

One should still test positive though. This is during the incubation period when the individual is a host but not showing symptoms at that time. That DOES NOT mean that they would test neg because they are asymptomatic.

Asymptomatic means they have a disease but are not exhibiting symptoms. Asymptomatic people typically don't get tested, unless you are of fame and have been around someone who was proven to have it.

They are asymptomatic during the long incubation period is what this is meaning, which with COVID can be up to 14 days. The incubation period for typical influenza-A or B is usually 3 days, sometimes up to 5.

The problem is that you can have the virus and Pass it to others whether or not you have tested, and even though you may have tested negative if you can actually find a testing site. Without widespread testing we are without data and the opportunity to slow the spread of Covid-19.

 

[PCHawk]

You keep saying just wait a week. Wait two weeks.

You've been saying it since mid March. Am I wrong on that?

I think Iowa is doing a hell of a job. And counties in Wisconsin and Illinois bordering Iowa are also doing well.

That's probably exactly when I started saying it. Two weeks later it's a lot worse. Pretty much the exact line I figured it would be on. Now I predict in two more weeks it will be 5000 deaths per day. Then it will stay that high for at least a couple more weeks before it slowly declines. Hopefully anyways. That part isn't obvious yet because we haven't watched other countries go through that part yet. Other than China, who is full of shit. And you say Illinois is doing good? They have 200 deaths and 25% of them came today. In a few weeks they will be having 250 deaths per day.

 

[thedukeofearl]

you are now official

John Carpenter's The Thing takes place there, but they filmed the movie in upper Canada. The sun's reflection off the snow onto Carpenters face while filming gave him skin cancer. By the way, if you have never seen The Thing, it's awesome! Rent It!!

John Carpenter's The Thing is a great one. They have it on Starz and you can get Starz for 7 days free on Amazon Prime or get it for $5 a month for 3 months. Watch it foe a month and cancel.

You can also get HBO for free right now, I believe for April

https://www.hbo.com/hbo-news/watch-hbo-free-no-subscription

 

[Northside Hawk]

The deaths lag the new cases by about a week to a week and a half.

A week to a week and a half ago, the US was getting between 11,000 - 19,000 new cases per day, and over the last four days, the deaths have been 900 - 1,300.

Our last 2 days there have been around 30,000 new cases per day. In a week or so, there will be 3,000 deaths per day. That would be the case even if there were 0 new cases added in the interim between now and then. Of course, new cases are still higher every day than they were the day before.

Obviously, there will be a period when deaths stay the same even as cases fall, or keep rising after cases flatten out

It's the same lag principle that causes the warmest time of the day to usually be late afternoon, even though the sun is most intense between 11 and 2. Or that late July/early August is usually the warmest time of the year, six weeks after days have gotten shorter.

There will be some lag involved. The Mississippi River will still remain high long after the snow that caused it to rise has long since melted. All due to lag.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

From a webmd article:

"As the researchers explained, broad-spectrum UVC light kills viruses and bacteria, and it is currently used to decontaminate surgical equipment. But this type of light can cause skin cancer and cataracts, so it's not used in public spaces."

From an NIH research study https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/

"UV radiation from the sun is the primary germicide in the environment. The goal of this study was to estimate inactivation of viruses by solar exposure.

Included in Table Table66 are estimated times for virus inactivation by midday solar exposure for each location and date. We selected the most UV-sensitive (Filoviridae) among the families of viruses of potential interest in biodefense (Table (Table4).4). The estimates of midday virus inactivation in Table Table66 range from 20 min to well over 1 hour for 1-log inactivation (10% survival). This indicates that some viruses could be inactivated by solar radiation rather quickly, while other, less-UV-sensitive virus types could persist for a long time."

So UV radiation does kill or inactivate viruses. But that is usually in the air and on surfaces. The problem with covid is it is in our bodies and spread by exhaling coughing or sneezing on people very near us or people touching droplets or the virus and then picking their noses, etc.

During one of the pandemics or plagues, they wheeled the Pt's in their hospital beds outside to be in the sun for the day. This is why these viruses typically kill off early summer and are not around much in the summer. That coupled with people spreading out more by being outside more. The UV rays killing the viruses on the surfaces outside helps stop the transmission.

 

[PCHawk]

So they aren't testing every single person who comes in deathly ill yet? Not sure if I believe that or not.