Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?

Are you personally worried about catching the Coronavirus?

  • Yes

    Votes: 41 41.0%

  • No

    Votes: 59 59.0%
  • Total voters
    100
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Northside Hawk said:
Illinois Governor Pritzker in HIS briefing just said 210 Illinois citizens have lost their lives to this.

Thats a months worth of murders in Chicago, Rockford, Peoria and East Saint Louis. But criminals still run free and get every chance to rehab themselves.
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It's not how many have already lost their lives. Its about how many are going to. It's like what I posted earlier about if NASA said an asteroid was going to destroy the planet in 2 weeks. It wouldn't make much sense to not care because it's killed zero people so far. When the amount of deaths are doubling every few days, 210 today is a pretty small part of the equation.
 
PCHawk said:
It's not how many have already lost their lives. Its about how many are going to.
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Other people have expressed difficulty discussing exponential growth with friends/family.

How 100,000 lives lost very quickly turns into 1,000,000.

I think most of these projections that say 100-200k lives lost are assuming we are doing a better job than we are at social isolation.

I think we are headed towards a million lives lost by the end of the month.
 
GoHawks12345 said:
Other people have expressed difficulty discussing exponential growth with friends/family.

How 100,000 lives lost very quickly turns into 1,000,000.

I think most of these projections that say 100-200k lives lost are assuming we are doing a better job than we are at social isolation.

I think we are headed towards a million lives lost by the end of the month.
Click to expand...

At the start of March, we had 65 active cases in the US.
By the end of March, we had 177,000.
A 2700 fold increase.


We are starting the month of April with 5102 deaths...
By the end of April... You think 1,000,000 is unreasonable?
A 2700 fold increase would be 13.8 million.

I used stats from here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 
GoHawks12345 said:
Other people have expressed difficulty discussing exponential growth with friends/family.

How 100,000 lives lost very quickly turns into 1,000,000.

I think most of these projections that say 100-200k lives lost are assuming we are doing a better job than we are at social isolation.

I think we are headed towards a million lives lost by the end of the month.
Click to expand...

Italy's deaths per day, translated to the US and our higher population, is around 5000 per day. I'm hoping we don't end up worse than that. 5000 per day for 30 days is only 150,000. I would guess we don't go much higher than that by the end of April.
 
alternative-coronavirus-masks-max-siedentopf_dezeen_2364_col_10-852x1132.jpg
 
GoHawks12345 said:
At the start of March, we had 65 active cases in the US.
By the end of March, we had 177,000.
A 2700 fold increase.


We are starting the month of April with 5102 deaths...
By the end of April... You think 1,000,000 is unreasonable?
A 2700 fold increase would be 13.8 million.

I used stats from here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Click to expand...

Guess we'll have a Gajillion by the end of the year at that rate and logic.
 
PCHawk said:
Italy's deaths per day, translated to the US and our higher population, is around 5000 per day. I'm hoping we don't end up worse than that. 5000 per day for 30 days is only 150,000. I would guess we don't go much higher than that by the end of April.
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Yes, eventually the exponential growth stopped in Italy. Both in new cases and in new deaths.

Fair to assume the same could/should happen here. Even though it's hard to know what factors exactly are responsible.
 
EstronHawkKing said:
Every time Gov Reynolds uses the word "metrics" take a drink, you'll be stone cold drunk by the end of her press conferences.
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......and what does that have to do with her nice little bod !?

Funny you mention. I could hear my wife commenting in the other room watching it about her keep saying the same thing over and over. Must have been that.
 
GoHawks12345 said:
Yes, eventually the exponential growth stopped in Italy. Both in new cases and in new deaths.

Fair to assume the same could/should happen here. Even though it's hard to know what factors exactly are responsible.
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Exponential growth has to stop at some point. I don't see our deaths per capita per day going much higher than Italy's at worst. I think worst case scenario is 6 or 7 thousand per day at peak.
 
tksirius said:
I'm really surprised the planet hasn't exploded yet. Not from the virus but from Mr. 12345's math skills.
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I dont have my calculator so I'll have to trust you on thos one. Was his math on exponential growth wrong? Remember he didn't predict 13 million deaths so we aren't talking about predictions. We are talking about the math on exponential growth. Was it wrong?
 
PCHawk said:
Exponential growth has to stop at some point. I don't see our deaths per capita per day going much higher than Italy's at worst. I think worst case scenario is 6 or 7 thousand per day at peak.
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Yes, I was looking purely at just the math of exponential growth.

I'm actually surprised and somewhat relieved it does expect to level off on it's own. I guess you can list a number of factors that could just naturally cause that to happen.
 
PCHawk said:
I dont have my calculator so I'll have to trust you on thos one. Was his math on exponential growth wrong? Remember he didn't predict 13 million deaths so we aren't talking about predictions. We are talking about the math on exponential growth. Was it wrong?
Click to expand...

I think TK has eaten a lot of crow the last few weeks.

He just wanted to tell me I was wrong about something.

I don't read anymore into it than that.
 
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