Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?

[MelroseHawkins]

Question from a die hard Hawk who resides in Wisconsin. Why in the billy hell has Iowa’s governor not declared stay at home measures? I think only one of only 11 states? I think all of them are Republican. Not political, just factual information. If I am wrong, let me know and I will apologize.

It'll happen today. I think she's getting pretty pressured.

 

[Northside Hawk]

One area I ve heard nurses talk about from New York is PTSD in care providers due to what they are experiencing. Not just watch people die but how the die and being overwhelmed by the numbers. Some people who could survive but not cared for or getting a respirator too late. PTSD has a huge economic toll as well.

Anyone who has heart or respitory problems, or suffers from a mental illness, or is susceptible to PTSD, or has vehicles repossessed or property foreclosed, is potentially vulnerable to the side effects of this without even catching the virus.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I live in Minnesota. Our Governor called a "shelter in place" order about a week ago. Plenty of people are still out and about...on the roads, in the parks, etc. The photo below is from one of the more popular lakes in the city of Minneapolis and it was taken yesterday. So much for social distancing.

Minnesota has gone democrat in every Presidential election since the 70s and has had 2 Republican Governors since 1980. Those are facts too. It's not as politically "clear" as you might think.

If they live like that, there is a good chance 4 people in that picture are hosting the virus right now asymptomatic. The average COVID-19 Pt passes the virus on to an average of 2.5 individuals. iucking Fidiots!!

 

[PCHawk]

That is pretty much impossible to determine, but you could be right.

Iowa normally experiences about 500-600 deaths from flu/pneumonia per year among about 30,000 total deaths (around 7,000 from heart disease, 6,000 from cancer, and 2,000 from lower-respiratory disease annually, for comparison).

If we assume the models are reasonably accurate (big assumption), that flu/pneumonia death toll will likely climb to 2,000 for 2020. Many of those that die will be in the heart disease/cancer/lower respiratory morbidity groups (top 3 killers). That represents an increase in deaths of about 5% increase in annual deaths, with most of those coming from demographics with fairly short lifespans ahead of them. I believe all of those projections are with counter-measures in place.

What would it look like without counter-measures? Could it get as bad as Italy? Some are projecting that rural areas could be hit hardest due to their lack of resources. Could Iowa experience a jump in deaths more like 5,000-10,000?

What are the costs of the counter-measures? Economic for sure, and we know income is tied to life-expectancy:
View attachment 6575

But what will be the LONG-TERM economic impact of this thing? It will kick us in the nuts right now, but how many people will be in a lower income bracket because of this in 5 years? Will it increase income inequality? Those are tough to project.

What about the immediate effects? How many people will be less-active and eat-worse over the next year? How many people will suffer an increase in mental health issues do directly to the counter-measures? How does that compare to people who would see an increase in mental health issues WITHOUT the countermeasures if the situation locally got much, much worse? How many people will suffer health issues directly related to immediate reduced income?

What happens to traffic deaths over the next year (traffic deaths generally kill about 300-400 per year)? Do they go way down with less travel?

Do the forced counter-measures lead people/organizations to find new and better ways to conduct business? Does this increase productivity/profitability in 10 years? Do advances in telemedicine have a far-reaching impact and save millions globally over the next decade?

Are we even looking at the right numbers? Instead of focusing on life-expectancy and annual income, should we be looking at metrics associated with happiness and life-satisfaction? How are those things impacted by the counter-measures? How would they be impacted by a doomsday scenario without countermeasures?

There is just no way to predict any of that, so you deal with the most pressing issue, which is the global pandemic at hand.

When this started, I was only concerned with the economic side of it. I hadn't thought about what would happen to the economy if we did nothing and let the virus spread naturally. It's tough to say where it would end up, but it's safe to say that it would definitely have a negative impact. It's entirely possible it would end up even worse. The fear associated with the increased deaths could easily push us into an even worse economy. When all is said and done, it will probably come back really strong tho. There are going to be a lot of people out there collecting estates from the elderly that died. When most people collect big sums of money, they spend it.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I dunno, maybe because she has some level of sanity in this whole thing. And trusts her state's residents to exhibit common sense.

Remember when trust used to mean something? Iowa has 12 counties with double digit confirmed cases.

Illinois has 17.

Wisconsin has 22.

Schools, bars, restaurants, and most non essential businesses are closed in Iowa. What is she supposed to do, order people to live like animals?

Pritzker is headed for trouble the first stretch of three seventy degree days in a row. You think people are going to stay inside? Hell no.

We have a total of three confirmed cases in our (southwestern Wisconsin) county and yet our schools are likely to be banged for the year, and some posters are already questioning next year. Who knows when the economy will bounce back, or how much taxes will go up.

Bottom line. Order people not to do something and many will do the opposite out of spite. Let's see the media bubs post a curve for THAT.

You are right, this is all coming down to behavior of people. She could call it that but it doesn't really change for my family and many like it who have been doing it. I mean we've been told to distance socialize anyway so it's like we've been doing it. People should have been doing it anyway to that level. Again, it comes down the the behavior.

I suspect when she does call it, most likely today, you will still see the same selfish individuals like in the pic of Minneapolis above. Those are the people where it doesn't matter. They are going to do what they want anyway.

They need to close certain parks like in the pic above. One city had the city maintenance guys take every basketball hoop down (parks and public schools) because people were congregating and playing close contact b-ball games.

There are just selfish fucking people out there who think it's "all about me".

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I'm self employed and I'm guessing I'll make 10% of my normal income over the next 2-3 months if I'm lucky.

What general area of business? If you would rather not state, that is fine. Good luck to you! Can you file for assistance of some kind from the state?

 

[uihawk82]

I live in Minnesota. Our Governor called a "shelter in place" order about a week ago. Plenty of people are still out and about...on the roads, in the parks, etc. The photo below is from one of the more popular lakes in the city of Minneapolis and it was taken yesterday. So much for social distancing.

Minnesota has gone democrat in every Presidential election since the 70s and has had 2 Republican Governors since 1980. Those are facts too. It's not as politically "clear" as you might think.

If you are living with someone for a long enough time to contract the infection either way then you can go for a walk by each other. But you just have to stay 6 feet away as you pass strangers to not breathe in any of the very small droplets that all of us expel when we breathe out. It looks like a lot of people in that picture are spread out and some are on the grass rather than the path. If those two ladies in the foreground do not live together well then they are taking a risk as they seem to be just a few feet away from each other. What looks like a man and woman in the foreground may live together.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

The charts that you seem to hold so dear to your heart say that this will peak in Iowa in the next two to four weeks. Iowa has yet to see a triple digit day, or anything near it. To get to 100,000 cases Iowa would have to AVERAGE 1,000 cases for next ONE HUNDRED DAYS. Or if it follows the normal curve that you keep pointing out and the medical experts that you so believe in are correct, it would have to spike up to 3-5,000 cases a day within the next week-and remain there for the rest of the month.

I listen to the governor's briefings every day. 80-90% of daily tests are coming back negative. THOSE numbers may hit 100,000 when this is all said and done. Positive cases? Almost impossible with our trajectory and projected peak.

No, once the train gets rolling it goes up exponentially. It took us quite a bit of time to get over 100 cases then over 200. I told my wife and others when we were hitting the 200 mark that once we hit that, we are going to increase a lot and in no time we'd be over 400. We are now going to go over 700 after today.

The train is rolling and has left the station and now coming thru at full speed the next couple weeks.

I saw a projection of 100,000 - 150,000 deaths in the US when this is all said and done. I couldn't fathom it when I saw that this pas week as it is hard to imagine, but, once the train is going thru, numbers go up rapidly.

I hope we don't hit 100,000 cases in Iowa. We have 3 mil people in Iowa, correct? Anybody know the average % of population getting hit with this thing? 100,000 would only be 3-3.5% of the population, correct?

 

[PCHawk]

Bill Gates wants a hard lockdown of this country.

For ten weeks.

No trucks, planes, trains or automobiles. Nothing moves.

Off course he showed no shame in stealing a competitor's ideas and becoming a multi-billionaire, so it's not a leap of faith to suggest he would have other inane ideas.

If we did a lockdown that hard, it would only need to be 4 weeks.

 

[PCHawk]

Anyone who has heart or respitory problems, or suffers from a mental illness, or is susceptible to PTSD, or has vehicles repossessed or property foreclosed, is potentially vulnerable to the side effects of this without even catching the virus.

I heard they were going to make it so you don't get in trouble for not making payments on things like houses and vehicles. Have they not done that?

 

[PCHawk]

What general area of business? If you would rather not state, that is fine. Good luck to you! Can you file for assistance of some kind from the state?

Carpet installation. I'll probably be looking into all that really soon. I don't feel good about it, but if everyone else is doing it, it would be dumb not to.

 

[PCHawk]

If you are living with someone for a long enough time to contract the infection either way then you can go for a walk by each other. But you just have to stay 6 feet away as you pass strangers to not breathe in any of the very small droplets that all of us expel when we breathe out. It looks like a lot of people in that picture are spread out and some are on the grass rather than the path. If those two ladies in the foreground do not live together well then they are taking a risk as they seem to be just a few feet away from each other. What looks like a man and woman in the foreground may live together.

I'm pretty sure someone could cough into the air on a walk path and someone else could walk by minutes later and get it. Is that correct?

 

[MelroseHawkins]

Carpet installation. I'll probably be looking into all that really soon. I don't feel good about it, but if everyone else is doing it, it would be dumb not to.

Don't be too proud man. I'm sure you've paid your share into the state over the years. It's more important for this economy to keep the small private businesses going by helping.

Hopefully, we will get thru this and people with these stimulus checks will be like "Hun, I know what we can do with this extra $$, get new damn carpet!".

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I'm pretty sure someone could cough into the air on a walk path and someone else could walk by minutes later and get it. Is that correct?

I kind of chuckled earlier this week when we had 50-60 mph wind gusts. Told my wife the virus lived in the air for 3.5hrs and now we have 50-60 mph wind gusts, NICE!!

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I heard they were going to make it so you don't get in trouble for not making payments on things like houses and vehicles. Have they not done that?

Trump did state that they are not to foreclose on people going thru this. He met some bankers of the largest lending corps. But, whose to say the timeline for this or if they wouldn't do it down the line, I guess. Some people are going to takes months if not years to crawl out of this.

 

[uihawk82]

Question from a die hard Hawk who resides in Wisconsin. Why in the billy hell has Iowa’s governor not declared stay at home measures? I think only one of only 11 states? I think all of them are Republican. Not political, just factual information. If I am wrong, let me know and I will apologize.

I live in Des MOines, IA Polk County and with non essential businesses etc shut down there is not a lot of people out. Some, some are still out walking and exercising but I havent heard of big crowds. Johnson County IA with Iowa City and the Univ of Iowa had an early spike from some vacationers returning from a cruise or vacation in Eqypt as they were already traveling when this hit. Those people have been isolated and I think that county is doing pretty well. Polk County has been rising slowing with cases. Western Iowa is very rural and not very populated. Linn County has a lot of residents and I think some large spread in a care center was mentioned for their bigger numbers.

I have been to a couple of big box stores to get stuff for projects at home and they are pretty empty.

I dont see a lot of contact of people going on except at essential places like grocery stores and pharmacies yet it is not huge crowds. And people who live together could go take a walk together but just not make a crowd.

I think the Gov could start a stay at home except for a few situations as a few people living together could go for a walk together.

 

[CP87]

When this started, I was only concerned with the economic side of it. I hadn't thought about what would happen to the economy if we did nothing and let the virus spread naturally. It's tough to say where it would end up, but it's safe to say that it would definitely have a negative impact. It's entirely possible it would end up even worse. The fear associated with the increased deaths could easily push us into an even worse economy. When all is said and done, it will probably come back really strong tho. There are going to be a lot of people out there collecting estates from the elderly that died. When most people collect big sums of money, they spend it.

 

[uihawk82]

My wife is furloughed right now. How's that for a reaction.

Does Wisconsin have a total stay at home order except for essential jobs and essential grocery and pharmacy and doctor visits?

 

[uihawk82]

I'm pretty sure someone could cough into the air on a walk path and someone else could walk by minutes later and get it. Is that correct?

I was talking about normal breathing which is the 6 foot safe distance. You are correct that coughing and sneezing can expel these droplets 5 to 200 times farther but 30 feet is a good assumption from NIH articles I read.

Plus if you are out on a windy day the wind will carry the droplets farther as gravity takes them to the ground. The few times I have talked to people outside during this pandemic I have tried to have all the people with me line up on a parallel line with the wind.

Without wind the droplets accelerate and fall to the ground just like any projectile shot out horizontally. The NIH site had a Wells chart to show this fall to the ground based on droplet size which is affected by air resistance.

 

[RobHowe]

My wife and I got out on 3 or 4 mile walks pretty much every day. It really helps us physically and mentally.

There are quite a few others out doing the same. We all make sure to spread out when passing each other, usually walking into the grass on each side of the sidewalk.

My wife found out yesterday that she was having her pay cut 20 percent at least through July. Others at her job were furloughed, so we lucked out. And we kept all of our health insurance.