EstronHawkKing
Well-Known Member
Looks like KCRG-TV in Cedar Rapids has dropped their sports casts. Really dumb move on their part, there may not be sporting events, but there is plenty of sports news to report on so far.
Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?
- Thread starter EstronHawkKing
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Ever or in the next month or two? Can you explain your thought process on how it is spreading really fast right now but will suddenly stop? If you set the over under at total iowa confirmed cases before this is all done at 100,000 I would bet a lot on the over.
I'm self employed and I'm guessing I'll make 10% of my normal income over the next 2-3 months if I'm lucky.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
The charts that you seem to hold so dear to your heart say that this will peak in Iowa in the next two to four weeks. Iowa has yet to see a triple digit day, or anything near it. To get to 100,000 cases Iowa would have to AVERAGE 1,000 cases for next ONE HUNDRED DAYS. Or if it follows the normal curve that you keep pointing out and the medical experts that you so believe in are correct, it would have to spike up to 3-5,000 cases a day within the next week-and remain there for the rest of the month.
I listen to the governor's briefings every day. 80-90% of daily tests are coming back negative. THOSE numbers may hit 100,000 when this is all said and done. Positive cases? Almost impossible with our trajectory and projected peak.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
There are lots of places that could use temporary help the next 2-3 months.
Good luck with your business when this is all over and I mean that sincerely. People like yourself are going to have your work cut out for you.
But how fast are positive cases going to double? I'm not sure the answer to that in Iowa. Also once it peaks, how long will it stay at that peak and how slowly will it drop to zero from that peak? This virus isn't going to go away until there is a vaccine. I see why you're pissed tho. If you think there will be 5000 cases and there's a 1% death rate, you think Iowa is shitting down over 50 deaths for the entire life of the virus. That would be insane.
Thanks man. I'll be alright because I'm a subcontractor and the economy will eventually come back enough where people will start buying again.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
I think it would be closer to 100, or 150 deaths, at 5,000 cases. 2-3 percent.
I also think we will be using one of these antibiotics soon, even if it's not a vaccine, to slow and eliminate SOME of the spread.
Iowa's cases have been consistently increasing 10-15% per day for the last two weeks. It cases did get to 5,000 (and we're three weeks from that at our current growth rate) and rates continued at 10-15% that's 500-750 cases a day. At 10,000 that's 1,000-1,500 cases a day. By that time we will be into May and past the projected peak.
Many more will lose their life from the side effects of this whole thing.
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I'm not saying we will hit 100,000 by the time it peaks. I'm saying total before a vaccine. They will also increase testing more and more. If only 20% of people who have it get sick enough to go in and get tested, and 600 people have positive tests, that means 3000 people actually have it. If you don't have symptoms for a week, that means that those 3000 people had it a week ago and the 600 from that have finally gotten sick enough to get tested. If 3000 people really had it a week ago and each person gives it to 2.5 people like they say, that means 10,000 people or so might already have it in the state. The worst part about this is how long it takes to contract it and end up with symptoms. Whatever the numbers are saying today is actually where we were a week ago. Add 2.5 to that number and that's where we are today. Obviously rough numbers, but that's the math that makes sense to me and all those charts that I love are backing up that math.
After typing this I realize that you need to replace the 600 number with however many people were tested positive over just this last week. I'm not sure what that number is but obviously it's under 600. I do know that the total deaths today was over 1000 in the US and total over the whole thing is about 6000. Pretty sure there were around 1000 deaths yesterday too. That means that 1/3 of our total deaths have come in the last 2 days. By the time we hit the top of the curve, the country will be having over 4000 deaths per day.
At least one model has Iowa peaking with # of daily new cases in about a month, currently projecting total cases of about 60,000 at that time (note: this is ESTIMATED cases, which is a different number, and always larger than, CONFIRMED cases).
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...-19-cases-deaths-iowa-covonavirus/5094043002/
The model predicts around 1,300 total deaths by Aug 4. I believe the model is accounting for current social distancing measures and closures, not positive on that.
I think we all have a tendency to see what is going on elsewhere, to compare that with what is currently going on here, and to somehow think that our situation is different. I think that definitely happened in the country as a whole about 2 months ago. China is getting decimated by this virus? Yeah, but nothing is happening here, so clearly we are different and will be okay. Fastforward 2 months, and we now have 3x the number of cases of China and almost double the deaths. People are reasonably skeptical about numbers out of China, but beyond that USA has 25% of the cases worldwide.
We look at Italy's healthcare system being overrun a month ago. We see that NOT happening here at that time. We assume we will be fine. Now the country has experienced around 1,000 deaths per day for three straight days, mostly from New York, and their peak is expected to be 2 weeks off:
https://www.modernhealthcare.com/pr...eyve-never-faced-medical-emergency-this-scale
We are currently looking at Iowa, comparing it to New York, and thinking we are different because it is not happening here. We certainly have some advantages with a more spread out populace, and being a "flyover" state with much less seeding than other locales. But I think it is pretty obvious from wherever this virus has gone that it is just a matter of time. Unless you can rigorously test nearly everyone, and track the infected and their contacts, there is not much hope in containing it. The places that aren't getting creamed right now aren't special, they are just earlier in the time-line of progression (OR they are kicking ass with testing/tracking).
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That is pretty much impossible to determine, but you could be right.
Iowa normally experiences about 500-600 deaths from flu/pneumonia per year among about 30,000 total deaths (around 7,000 from heart disease, 6,000 from cancer, and 2,000 from lower-respiratory disease annually, for comparison).
If we assume the models are reasonably accurate (big assumption), that flu/pneumonia death toll will likely climb to 2,000 for 2020. Many of those that die will be in the heart disease/cancer/lower respiratory morbidity groups (top 3 killers). That represents an increase in deaths of about 5% increase in annual deaths, with most of those coming from demographics with fairly short lifespans ahead of them. I believe all of those projections are with counter-measures in place.
What would it look like without counter-measures? Could it get as bad as Italy? Some are projecting that rural areas could be hit hardest due to their lack of resources. Could Iowa experience a jump in deaths more like 5,000-10,000?
What are the costs of the counter-measures? Economic for sure, and we know income is tied to life-expectancy:
But what will be the LONG-TERM economic impact of this thing? It will kick us in the nuts right now, but how many people will be in a lower income bracket because of this in 5 years? Will it increase income inequality? Those are tough to project.
What about the immediate effects? How many people will be less-active and eat-worse over the next year? How many people will suffer an increase in mental health issues do directly to the counter-measures? How does that compare to people who would see an increase in mental health issues WITHOUT the countermeasures if the situation locally got much, much worse? How many people will suffer health issues directly related to immediate reduced income?
What happens to traffic deaths over the next year (traffic deaths generally kill about 300-400 per year)? Do they go way down with less travel?
Do the forced counter-measures lead people/organizations to find new and better ways to conduct business? Does this increase productivity/profitability in 10 years? Do advances in telemedicine have a far-reaching impact and save millions globally over the next decade?
Are we even looking at the right numbers? Instead of focusing on life-expectancy and annual income, should we be looking at metrics associated with happiness and life-satisfaction? How are those things impacted by the counter-measures? How would they be impacted by a doomsday scenario without countermeasures?
There is just no way to predict any of that, so you deal with the most pressing issue, which is the global pandemic at hand.
GoHawks12345
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HawkGold
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One area I ve heard nurses talk about from New York is PTSD in care providers due to what they are experiencing. Not just watch people die but how the die and being overwhelmed by the numbers. Some people who could survive but not cared for or getting a respirator too late. PTSD has a huge economic toll as well.
GoHawks12345
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MelroseHawkins
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Yes, that and the ATM pads at stores. Look how many people touch those things after using their hands to cover their mouths when coughing or something. One can hardly even use gloves to do the transaction with them. I've been putting everything on me credit card just to avoid having to push more buttons like when putting my ATM code in.
Luckily, at least this day in age we can often times use a public restroom without touching anything but our Johnson!!
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Yea, take this for what it's worth. I don't know the guy and never met this guy before. It was just casual conversation while I was checking out at a gas station. Was checking out and this guy was explaining how his mother is a nurse back in New Jersey and said how she told him "It's really bad out here and you have no idea what's coming". She said there is just nothing they can do and people his age (he must have been in his 30's) were coming into the hospitals and dying.
Now, we've heard that those at risk of dying are the elderly and/or those with some chronic health conditions. I don't know if all is true and we are being told the truth with the % stated in the media with a low % of healthy people, or if this guy was exaggerating. Again, I don't know him from a hill of beans but seemed like a decent guy.
So, are we being told the truth or are they suppressing the numbers to prevent panic and chaos?
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Man, it's like you had a pit bull on a chain walking it.
Check out Bill Burr's set on why one needs to get a pit bull!
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
Bill Gates wants a hard lockdown of this country.
For ten weeks.
No trucks, planes, trains or automobiles. Nothing moves.
Off course he showed no shame in stealing a competitor's ideas and becoming a multi-billionaire, so it's not a leap of faith to suggest he would have other inane ideas.
For ten weeks.
No trucks, planes, trains or automobiles. Nothing moves.
Off course he showed no shame in stealing a competitor's ideas and becoming a multi-billionaire, so it's not a leap of faith to suggest he would have other inane ideas.
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