The Season Died at the Palestra

[PCHawk]

The team without CJ against Penn State looked like a boarderline top 25 team just 3 days earlier. The injuries have killed us this year, but with Garza and Wieskamp, they are still capable of looking good on a lot of nights. If we have another stretch where we have two road games in three days, count the second one as a loss again.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I think this is an over reaction and I witnessed that shit show in person, but it’s hard to say this is a good team with out 3 starters out for the season. That’s gonna make 99.9% of every team in the country pretty bad. I didn’t think I’d make an injury excuse for Fran, but after seeing how dominant they were earlier in the season, I think I’m there

It’s not any one single thing but the culmination of that game effectively ended the season for the hawks in my eyes. I don’t blame Fran either it just sucks that injury happened. But we effectively blew that game which would have been a huge road win, and bought us a potential stinker loss like Nebraska. As PC and others have said that hit gym and tough game with the travel probably led to that Nebraska showing at least in part. So two massive losses that should have been wins.

Add to that CJ Fredrick in a walking boot likely out extended time. Iowa staring down the gun barrel of a 3-7 start in conference play and the beginning of this schedule was actually the more manageable part of it. By the time we get CJ back it’s too little to late.

Effectively in my eyes the season died at the Palestra.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I can't blame Fran. I just can't. I want to but I can't. He didn't break Jordan's hip, cap Nunge in the knee, stomp on CJ's foot or cause Patrick's health issues. He also didn't miss 29 three pointers... all that while taking a look at the bench that's no longer there. He literally had no answers to last nights poor shooting because there are no answers left. Guys playing extended minutes that are suppose to be role and glue guys. It's hard for me to blame Fran... and also, there's plenty of evidence this was a pretty good team before the injuries.

I wanna see what they can piece together here. Rarely do things go to script. Right now, things look terrible. They did early in the year but that wasn't the case. I am not ready to bury the team yet...even tho I may have already been there earlier in the season. I always count road games as an L. I just do. That's how I've done it since I was kid. If you get a W on the road, bonus, but I don't expect them. I also expect them to hold serve at home. With the injuries that seems like a long shot this year.

It’s not about blaming Fran for me, it’s the sadness in the fact that this season, which had some promise, is slipping away and to me likely done. Can’t control injuries but it hurts just the same.

I don’t blame Fran for anything coaching wise last night, we just couldn’t make shots. I would say going forward with CJF out Evelyn needs to start and Kriener should come off the bench. It’s a change he needs to make but probably won’t. That doesn’t mean Evelyn is better than Kriener actually the opposite. You can’t have Pemsl and Evelyn coming off the bench and throwing up goose eggs effectively getting nothing off your bench. Plus this team had a bunch more success playing small with Connor at the 4.

 

[InGoodCo]

It’s not any one single thing but the culmination of that game effectively ended the season for the hawks in my eyes. I don’t blame Fran either it just sucks that injury happened. But we effectively blew that game which would have been a huge road win, and bought us a potential stinker loss like Nebraska. As PC and others have said that hit gym and tough game with the travel probably led to that Nebraska showing at least in part. So two massive losses that should have been wins.

Add to that CJ Fredrick in a walking boot likely out extended time. Iowa scaring down the gun barrel of a 3-7 start in conference play and the beginning of this schedule was actually the more manageable part of it. By the time we get CJ back it’s too little to late.

Effectively in my eyes the season died at the Palestra.

I get that - but who's to say that they go thru a spell here with out CJ and they lose like 5 or 6 straight and then go on a run when he gets back? It's possible. If he's out for the year, I would wholeheartedly agree with your over all take, but still, I doubt you see this team shot THAT poorly from 3 again this year. They hit some of those last night and we're not having this discussion. But they didn't and we are. I just don't think we can write them off that quickly but I think the ceiling has always been lowered since Jordan shut it down.

 

[ibahawkeye]

Not mental, just physical. Team is just different going from having 3-4 shooters to having 1/2.

I'm not upset at this point as the team has outplayed my expectations by far and I'm in a much more positive place than prior to the season. When the pieces are there we are fine and I'm hopeful that if we can get everybody back plus the return of JBo and hopefully the Perkins kid can add additional depth to the guard position.

 

[BGOLD]

With CJ we win the game last night, and there's a good chance we beat PSU as well and are on the cusp of being in the Top 20. In most years I would say this isn't a tournament team, but college basketball is down this year. I'm holding off on the panic button for now.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I get that - but who's to say that they go thru a spell here with out CJ and they lose like 5 or 6 straight and then go on a run when he gets back? It's possible. If he's out for the year, I would wholeheartedly agree with your over all take, but still, I doubt you see this team shot THAT poorly from 3 again this year. They hit some of those last night and we're not having this discussion. But they didn't and we are. I just don't think we can write them off that quickly but I think the ceiling has always been lowered since Jordan shut it down.

We were also playing the worst team in the conference last night. Any other team besides NW and that thing would have been an absolute beatdown.

I’ve pointed this out a couple times now. Look at the back half of Iowa’s schedule. Even with a healthy CJF that was looking like at very best a 6-4 stretch. 6-4 when you are 3-7 or 2-8 ain't going to cut it and 6-4 is pushing it, realistically I would have thought probably 4-6 in that stretch with a healthy CJ.

The other thing is the blood is in the water now, with a poor record teams are going to be coming in expecting and believing they will win against Iowa. Not dissimilar to that 4 win season, that team wasn’t THAT bad I don’t think.

 

[InGoodCo]

We were also playing the worst team in the conference last night. Any other team besides NW and that thing would have been an absolute beatdown.

I’ve pointed this out a couple times now. Look at the back half of Iowa’s schedule. Even with a healthy CJF that was looking like at very best a 6-4 stretch. 6-4 when you are 3-7 or 2-8 ain't going to cut it and 6-4 is pushing it, realistically I would have thought probably 4-6 in that stretch with a healthy CJ.

The other thing is the blood is in the water now, with a poor record teams are going to be coming in expecting and believing they will win against Iowa. Not dissimilar to that 4 win season, that team wasn’t THAT bad I don’t think.

I agree with you, but penciling W/L's based on what things look like right now isn't being very honest IMO - unless you had them at 10-3 at the start of the year vs the schedule they played.

 

[#1DieHardHawk]

Completely reliant on outside shooting? We have one of the best scoring centers in the nation.

I was referring to situations where a team double and triple-teams Luka, forcing us to hit from the outside, as we saw last night.

 

[sioux34]

I agree with much of what you say, but if either Wieskamp or Garza go anywhere it’s a huge mistake.

No matter what kind of season Garza could have next year, there will not be as much hype around him as there is this year. If he wants to get paid to play, the smart play would be to go after this year. I would love for him to stay, and I really dont see him getting much play in the NBA, but I dont see him coming back.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I agree with you, but penciling W/L's based on what things look like right now isn't being very honest IMO - unless you had them at 10-3 at the start of the year vs the schedule they played.

Couple things. I agree predicting W/L can be tough and I usually try to stay away from it. Predicting early season records is much tougher because we know less about teams. We also had Bohannon for most of those games.

I was of the belief that we were still going to have a battle to get to the dance without Bohannon. Without CJF for potentially an extended period, and throwing in these last two massive losses, I think it’s pretty much over.

 

[InGoodCo]

If you went and penciled your W/L for the first 13 games - you would have had them probably a game or 2 over .500 or if you were really pessimistic, you might have had them with a losing record.... and that was with a fully healthy squad in mind likely. Or at the very least, with out Jordan. It didn't go anything like that. So, that's why I caution doing the same for the next 14. Too many variables.

 

[NikeHawk21]

If you went and penciled your W/L for the first 13 games - you would have had them probably a game or 2 over .500 or if you were really pessimistic, you might have had them with a losing record.... and that was with a fully healthy squad in mind likely. Or at the very least, with out Jordan. It didn't go anything like that. So, that's why I caution doing the same for the next 14. Too many variables.

But would you also agree that we know a lot more about college basketball teams at this point than we did at the beginning of the year? Would you also agree that we now have a better understanding of say what an Evelyn brings? We have a better understanding of what Pemsl is post injury? We have a better understanding of what Toussaint brings and what his limitations are?

Everyone knows that preseason predictions and rankings are a crapshoot in college bball. But 15 games into the season I think the picture gets a little clearer.

 

[InGoodCo]

But would you also agree that we know a lot more about college basketball teams at this point than we did at the beginning of the year? Would you also agree that we now have a better understanding of say what an Evelyn brings? We have a better understanding of what Pemsl is post injury? We have a better understanding of what Toussaint brings and what his limitations are?

Everyone knows that preseason predictions and rankings are a crapshoot in college bball. But 15 games into the season I think the picture gets a little clearer.

I do agree with that... but I don't what other teams are going to get more injured or start playing poorly in the 2nd half of the season either. I think we can both agree that if the team we rolled out last night is what we're rolling out for a good portion of the remainder of the season, it isn't going to be good enough to win 20 games.

 

[Stanzi]

Having Till, Pemsl and Evelyn on the floor at the same time should never happen. I know the bench is short but just use your timeouts and the official timeouts to your advantage to give guys breathers. You're basically playing 2 on 5 on offense with those 3 in at the same time.

 

[NikeHawk21]

Bad shooting nights are going to happen. I can live with that.

But, there is no excuse for the utterly terrible on-ball defense this team plays, and has played during Fran's entire tenure. None.

Nebraska realized that they could score at will by letting the shot clock wind down, then penetrating with ease (drawing the interior defender) and dishing it off for an easy layup or wide open three. Even without penetration, Iowa's perimeter players are constantly on their heels making the shooters completely comfortable lining up the shot.

Our only player that has any lateral quickness at all is Toussaint, but he's prone to head fakes and crossovers, essentially negating whatever athletic ability he has.

This team had exceeded my expectations, but at the end of the day, is quite possibly is the least athletic team in the B1G. If the outside shot is not falling to balance out that lack of athleticism, this team won't have an answer.

I wanted to discuss this one and I don’t think you’re wrong. Lost in the horrible shooting night was a bunch of defensive miscues.

I think a big part of it has to do with Kriener and Pemsl eating up big minutes at the 4. They just really aren’t suited to defend that spot in the zone and most teams are playing smaller quicker players at the 4. You saw Kriener fall asleep and get burned for an easy layup in a big moment. I also think Garza needs to stop switching on ball screens where he ends up getting matched with a PG, which leads to a basket almost every time.

Especially now with the depleted roster if this team wants to win they are going to have to tighten up the defense a bunch, and I’m not sure they can do it if we continue to play our big and slow guys this much. I still think Till is probably a better option than Pemsl. We survived some of the poor defense with elite offense early in the year, but we can’t do that anymore.

 

[PCHawk]

I was referring to situations where a team double and triple-teams Luka, forcing us to hit from the outside, as we saw last night.

Gotcha. But none the less, we had a lot of points in the paint last night.

 

[PCHawk]

It’s not any one single thing but the culmination of that game effectively ended the season for the hawks in my eyes. I don’t blame Fran either it just sucks that injury happened. But we effectively blew that game which would have been a huge road win, and bought us a potential stinker loss like Nebraska. As PC and others have said that hit gym and tough game with the travel probably led to that Nebraska showing at least in part. So two massive losses that should have been wins.

Add to that CJ Fredrick in a walking boot likely out extended time. Iowa staring down the gun barrel of a 3-7 start in conference play and the beginning of this schedule was actually the more manageable part of it. By the time we get CJ back it’s too little to late.

Effectively in my eyes the season died at the Palestra.

I wouldn't say we blew the Penn State game. It came down to a 50/50 game on the road, with a really short bench, in a really hot gym. It wasn't like the games in the Gesell years where we did whatever it took to lose a close game.

 

[PCHawk]

It's not even so much the production we are losing from the guys who are out as much as what we lose having to play the guys that should be on the end of the bench. Pemsl just makes me so mad. The other guys just aren't very good so they try to provide decent minutes without hurting the team. But Pemsl comes in and tries to be a point forward and make miracle passes every time he touches the ball. He absolutely kills us by trying to play outside his talent level.

 

[InGoodCo]

I'll be honest, all though I did notice Kriener was noticeably gassed, there were so many stoppages in play last night - either TV timeouts or what not, I get why coaches don't feel the need to use TO's like crazy. It seemed like we were breaking constantly and from Iowa's standpoint, they could never get in a flow.