Obviously, good teams lose. At the end of the day, it's about odds and probability.
Teams with a good mix of athleticism and skill level will always have better odds of winning, assuming equal coaching. If you assemble a roster that is almost completely reliant upon outside shooting and is almost devoid of twitchy athletes, and is never drilled on good defensive fundamentals, you're never going to win consistently.
Also, to add, having balanced rosters helps immensely.....not an over abundance of combo tweeners guard/small forwards and 4s that are playing the 5 spot, and not having a stud point guard ever. Guys consistently playing out of position. Not all of these traits necessarily apply to this current squad (for example Garza is holding his own at the 5 spot), but this team also does not have a strong bench whatsoever.
Garza's play, this team having heart, having some shooters when they are hitting, and, when healthy, has helped this team to over exceed expectations. But, it is possible we are starting to see things go back to the mean.
Again, I think Fran, coaching wise, throws a lot of schemes out there, but does not teach it very well (outside of inbounds plays).
All adds up to having a program that is more exciting than Lick, fairly more professional than Alford, but results that are a little better than Alford. You can find 50 other coaches that could do the same thing. Fran's best year was an average for Mr. Davis. And, Fran has never been to the Sweet 16 ever. Not at Iowa or anywhere else.
Hope for the best, but expect the collapse. That is what history has shown us here.
I do think Iowa can make NCAA tourney next year, if they keep all of these pieces together, if they can get JBo fully healthy, and they can stay healthy. I would guess another 2nd round exit, but that is a long way off yet.