The Middle Finger To That Wacky Coronavirus COVID-19 Game Thread

I played enough flippy cup and beer pong in college in some very unsanitary conditions that I feel confident in my body's ability to say F you to coronavirus.
 
tksirius said:
They've tested around 140,000 people. South Korea has a population of 51,270,000. Unless you think the percentage of those infected is somehow significantly lower in population not tested, the infected number is around 2.5 million to 3 million. If you figure 70 deaths into that, that's probably somewhere between 1 in 35,000 to 1 in 43,000. Previous reports put their death toll at 35; that's what I was using. The point is that as the number of people tested rises, the more will be positive and the more the mortality rate drops. That's why you can't take the numbers you hear from WHO at face value. The same goes with the seasonal flu. The amount of people infected is always much higher than they could possibly know. Most people don't get tested or even go to the doctor.
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You're wrong, TK. You're reasoning as though the 140,00 is a random sample drawn from all across the country. It is not. Infection testing always prioritizes populations more likely to be infected first and then begins to expand outward to groups increasingly less likely to be infected. It is not random. You've committed the most common fallacy in statistics.
 
VAHawkFan said:
You're wrong, TK. You're reasoning as though the 140,00 is a random sample drawn from all across the country. It is not. Infection testing always prioritizes populations more likely to be infected first and then begins to expand outward to groups increasingly less likely to be infected. It is not random. You've committed the most common fallacy in statistics.
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A very large portion won't show any symptoms. Plus, some symptoms will be very mild. These people are not being tested. Nice try with your gotcha moment, though. ;)
 
tksirius said:
A very large portion won't show any symptoms. Plus, some symptoms will be very mild. These people are not being tested. Nice try with your gotcha moment, though. ;)
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Not a gotcha. Basic math.

You're supporting your arguments with unsupported assumptions and vague wording:
1) "A very large portion" is vague and unspecific. Where in your numbers did you factor in "a very large portion"? You tried to pass off some pretty specific numbers. I'm not sure what 70 divided by "a very large portion" actually is.

2) These people are not being tested. What are you basing that on? The detailed study you've done of South Korea's mitigation plan? Or is that just what YOU THINK the situation is?

And why don't we talk about the fact that you focus solely on South Korea and never once mention Italy? You wouldn't be cherry picking would you?
 
CP87 said:
You really should stop making posts suggesting that this is much ado about nothing. You just put the numbers out there: the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 100x higher than H1N1. Evidence suggests it will spread similarly, so it is likely that it will match the 60 million with H1N1 over the next 12 months, but kill 10-100x more people (if we just treat it like the regular flu).
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I just did one of those things where where I typed up a long message and ended up deleting it. I will say this, hopefully at this point nobody is believing anything he says about this because he clearly is trying to spin the data (and obviously the lack of) to fit his narrative.
 
Ree4 said:
I just did one of those things where where I typed up a long message and ended up deleting it. I will say this, hopefully at this point nobody is believing anything he says about this because he clearly is trying to spin the data (and obviously the lack of) to fit his narrative.
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He's claiming that it's 100 times more deadly than H1N1, which is simply untrue. So, who the F is spinning the data? This is laughable.
 
ssckelley said:
I just did this and my home town grocery store had both the aloe gel and the 70% Isopropyl alcohol. If you find the 16 oz bottles of alcohol just mix the whole thing with a cup of aloe vera gel, then you can use the empty bottle to put most of it in. Get some lemon juice or an essential oil for fragrance if you want. I put some lemon juice in mine.

Screw those hoarders!!!
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Well went to CVS yesterday afternoon prior to coming home and the shelf was completely empty of both alcohol and hydrogen peroxide. Sign read we are temporarily out of stock and not sure when will be getting in. Going to try other places tonight.

Did you omit the hydrogen peroxide, then?
 
I wonder what would happen if you gave an individual a controlled illness like a mild form of the flu right before the peak of the virus went through the area. The immune system would build up antibodies to fight the controlled illness given to the individual. I wonder if doing that could stave off the Covid-19 or help to decrease the severity of it.


Also, people wear masks or masks are recommended. Why don't they recommend people wear gloves
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when in public? I have a light pair of inexpensive Hardy mechanical gloves from Harbor Freight that I wear just to get into my office on campus. From my driveway, all I have to do is touch one door and an elevator button then I'm in my office and have my personal office door to open.

I'm on campus in Johnson County and work downtown, right at ground zero. This is an area with a lot of travelers or international students.
 
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MelroseHawkins said:
Well went to CVS yesterday afternoon prior to coming home and the shelf was completely empty of both alcohol and hydrogen peroxide. Sign read we are temporarily out of stock and not sure when will be getting in. Going to try other places tonight.

Did you omit the hydrogen peroxide, then?
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Grain alcohol works
 
MelroseHawkins said:
Well went to CVS yesterday afternoon prior to coming home and the shelf was completely empty of both alcohol and hydrogen peroxide. Sign read we are temporarily out of stock and not sure when will be getting in. Going to try other places tonight.

Did you omit the hydrogen peroxide, then?
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Yes, none of the online recipes I read included peroxide. It's the alcohol that kills the germs on your hand, you need the aloe gell to make it easier on your skin.

I was able to pick up 91% Isopropyl alcohol at a Dollar General and they had plenty more on the shelf.
 
MelroseHawkins said:
Funny they just recently legalized pot and sports gambling to help to try to keep the ship afloat with two additional tax revenue streams. Not sports betting is going to come to a halt until this is over.
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I don't know I can see pot sales continue to increase as a result of life without sports. People need a hobby.
 
Germany has 12 deaths from over 4,800 confirmed cases. They seem to be handling this pretty well.
 
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CP87 said:
Germany has 12 deaths from over 4,800 confirmed cases. This seem to be handling this pretty well.
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I'm not sure what your post means. It seems like you are insinuating that Germany is better at keeping deathly ill people alive but I know that's obviously not the case. What are you saying they are handling well? My guess is they are just testing more people who aren't deathly ill.
 
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