The Middle Finger To That Wacky Coronavirus COVID-19 Game Thread

CP87 said:
You really should stop making posts suggesting that this is much ado about nothing. You just put the numbers out there: the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 100x higher than H1N1. Evidence suggests it will spread similarly, so it is likely that it will match the 60 million with H1N1 over the next 12 months, but kill 10-100x more people (if we just treat it like the regular flu).
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If the "experts" are correct that over 500k people have it in the U.S., the mortality rate is around 1 in 13,000. If 60 million get it, that would be roughly 4,600 that might die. That's significantly less than H1N1.

Take a look at South Korea. Over 4% of them have it, and about 40 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 1 in 60+ thousand.

Please stop feeding into the hysteria.
 
EstronHawkKing said:
JOHNSTON, Iowa (KWWL) - Governor Reynolds says there are now 18 COVID-19 cases in eastern Iowa.

In a press conference Gov. Reynolds stated the Iowa Department of Public Health has identified an 18th Iowan with COVID-19. The patient is aged 61 to 80, and is a resident of Dallas County.

Gov. Reynolds disclosed the patient received the virus through community spread, the first of its kind. Gov. Reynolds also stated there's no reason to shut down all schools in the state of Iowa, but will be taken by a case by case basis.

17 of the 18 current cases are travel related. Governor Reynolds said in a press conference on Friday, fifteen of the cases are linked to Iowans through a cruise in Egypt.

Johnson County has 14 of the individuals, while another linked to the Egyptian cruise lives in Carroll County.

Also, a Pottawattamie County resident tested positive for COVID-19.
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I guarantee you there are a hell of a lot more than 18 infected.
 
tksirius said:
If the "experts" are correct that over 500k people have it in the U.S., the mortality rate is around 1 in 13,000. If 60 million get it, that would be roughly 4,600 that might die. That's significantly less than H1N1.

Take a look at South Korea. Over 4% of them have it, and about 40 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 1 in 60+ thousand.

Please stop feeding into the hysteria.
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Why don't you just SHUT UP for once!!
 
CP87 said:
You really should stop making posts suggesting that this is much ado about nothing. You just put the numbers out there: the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 100x higher than H1N1. Evidence suggests it will spread similarly, so it is likely that it will match the 60 million with H1N1 over the next 12 months, but kill 10-100x more people (if we just treat it like the regular flu).
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Tksirius has acted like a horses ass over the past few days, this virus has only been around 3 -4 months from what we have been told, and he acts like it's the common cold. No matter what, people are dying from it and he tries to brush it off like it's no big deal. I've never had issues with this guy, but have really lost respect for him and his posts on this topic.
 
EstronHawkKing said:
Tksirius has acted like a horses ass over the past few days, this virus has only been around 3 -4 months from what we have been told, and he acts like it's the common cold. No matter what, people are dying from it and he tries to brush it off like it's no big deal. I've never had issues with this guy, but have really lost respect for him and his posts on this topic.
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I've been a horse's ass because I've taken an objective approach supplying data that contradicts what you choose to believe. Have a nice night, buddy.
 
CP87 said:
You really should stop making posts suggesting that this is much ado about nothing. You just put the numbers out there: the mortality rate for COVID-19 is 100x higher than H1N1. Evidence suggests it will spread similarly, so it is likely that it will match the 60 million with H1N1 over the next 12 months, but kill 10-100x more people (if we just treat it like the regular flu).
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COVID-19 is kinda a weird combination where most people have really mild symptoms and some people die. I virus like that is hard to get anywhere close to an actual mortality rate. H1N1 was way more brutal as far as how bad it sucked for everyone who got it. That probably means almost everyone who got it got diagnosed with it. Whereas with COVID-19, most people will never know they had it and will never be factored into the numbers. If there was somehow a way to know the exact mortality rate of both, I would bet almost everything I have the H1N1 was higher.
 
tksirius said:
If the "experts" are correct that over 500k people have it in the U.S., the mortality rate is around 1 in 13,000. If 60 million get it, that would be roughly 4,600 that might die. That's significantly less than H1N1.

Take a look at South Korea. Over 4% of them have it, and about 40 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 1 in 60+ thousand.

Please stop feeding into the hysteria.
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Listen, I am not saying that you are definitely wrong. I am just saying there is a lot of uncertainty, and it seems like the prudent approach is one of caution. And I agree with posts made by you and others that the protective measures come with their own costs, and it is really difficult to predict at what point the costs are not worth the benefits. But basic things like canceling big events (sports/entertainment sector is a pretty small part of our overall economy), moving schools to distance learning, and asking people to spend a bit more time with their family and a little less time co-mingling are steps with minimal cost that could make a huge difference.

I hope you are right and this is much ado about nothing. I am just troubled by your certainty that this is the case. The piece below deals a bit with the idea of probability, uncertainty, and events like pandemics:

 
tksirius said:
If the "experts" are correct that over 500k people have it in the U.S., the mortality rate is around 1 in 13,000. If 60 million get it, that would be roughly 4,600 that might die. That's significantly less than H1N1.

Take a look at South Korea. Over 4% of them have it, and about 40 deaths. That's a mortality rate of 1 in 60+ thousand.

Please stop feeding into the hysteria.
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I am not sure where you are getting your data on South Korea. Accoding to the most recent WHO situation report, just over 8,000 confirmed cases, with over 70 deaths (mortality rate just below 1%).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_2

And I know mortality rates are hard to pin down, but S. Korea has had some of the most extensive testing (they have tested over 250,000), so this is probably one of the best numbers we have. Even if we assume they are overestimating by an order of magnitude (putting actual mortality at about 1 in 1,000), that still makes COVID-19 an order of magnitude more deadly than standard Flu or H1N1.

We don't agree on everything, but you are one of the best contributors on this site, from a content and humor standpoint. I think you are missing the mark on this one.

Take care, and Go Hawks.
 
CP87 said:
I am not sure where you are getting your data on South Korea. Accoding to the most recent WHO situation report, just over 8,000 confirmed cases, with over 70 deaths (mortality rate just below 1%).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_2

And I know mortality rates are hard to pin down, but S. Korea has had some of the most extensive testing (they have tested over 250,000), so this is probably one of the best numbers we have. Even if we assume they are overestimating by an order of magnitude (putting actual mortality at about 1 in 1,000), that still makes COVID-19 an order of magnitude more deadly than standard Flu or H1N1.

We don't agree on everything, but you are one of the best contributors on this site, from a content and humor standpoint. I think you are missing the mark on this one.

Take care, and Go Hawks.
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They've tested around 140,000 people. South Korea has a population of 51,270,000. Unless you think the percentage of those infected is somehow significantly lower in population not tested, the infected number is around 2.5 million to 3 million. If you figure 70 deaths into that, that's probably somewhere between 1 in 35,000 to 1 in 43,000. Previous reports put their death toll at 35; that's what I was using. The point is that as the number of people tested rises, the more will be positive and the more the mortality rate drops. That's why you can't take the numbers you hear from WHO at face value. The same goes with the seasonal flu. The amount of people infected is always much higher than they could possibly know. Most people don't get tested or even go to the doctor.
 
tksirius said:
They've tested around 140,000 people. South Korea has a population of 51,270,000. Unless you think the percentage of those infected is somehow significantly lower in population not tested, the infected number is around 2.5 million to 3 million. If you figure 70 deaths into that, that's probably somewhere between 1 in 35,000 to 1 in 43,000. Previous reports put their death toll at 35; that's what I was using. The point is that as the number of people tested rises, the more will be positive and the more the mortality rate drops. That's why you can't take the numbers you hear from WHO at face value. The same goes with the seasonal flu. The amount of people infected is always much higher than they could possibly know. Most people don't get tested or even go to the doctor.
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I get what you are saying and while I agree that we shouldn't be panicking over this I'm glad people are using more caution and taking extra measures to avoid the spread of this virus. I see no harm in that and I think the lessons learned from South Korea and Italy are helping us in the US avoid spreading this. While there is a low death rate with this virus I've also read that the side affects can be nasty for the survivors so I'd like to avoid getting it if at all possible.
 
ssckelley said:
I get what you are saying and while I agree that we shouldn't be panicking over this I'm glad people are using more caution and taking extra measures to avoid the spread of this virus. I see no harm in that and I think the lessons learned from South Korea and Italy are helping us in the US avoid spreading this. While there is a low death rate with this virus I've also read that the side affects can be nasty for the survivors so I'd like to avoid getting it if at all possible.
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The truth is that 80% or more of those infected will experience very mild symptoms or none at all. I know the media is focusing on the worst cases to scare everyone, but it's important to keep it in perspective. I do agree that it's good more people are actually taking precautions such as washing their fucking hands lol. New concept for some people. The problem I have is that people are still going to congregate, especially at the grocery stores. One of the gyms I go to is still packed all the time. Restaurants here in Denver are as busy as ever (maybe because all the toilet paper cooks have bought all the food)... I really don't see the majority of people practicing social distancing.

If they go forward with a domestic travel ban on airplanes, we're gonna be the ones bailing out the airlines.
 
I’ve had my fill of the ridiculousness. Deleted twitter from my phone, cancelled YouTube TV, and going to avoid the internet altogether except for email and banking which I can’t.

I actually think it’ll be a nice vaca for a few weeks or months until this garbage is done (which it will be). If the national guard starts rolling down my street with M4’s maybe I’ll check into things.

See you filthy animals when sports resume, whenever that might be.

And don’t worry your little hearts, @ModebaSan , @HuckFinn , and @WindsorHawk . I’ll definitely be back.
 
Fryowa said:
I’ve had my fill of the ridiculousness. Deleted twitter from my phone, cancelled YouTube TV, and going to avoid the internet altogether except for email and banking which I can’t.

I actually think it’ll be a nice vaca for a few weeks or months until this garbage is done (which it will be). If the national guard starts rolling down my street with M4’s maybe I’ll check into things.

See you filthy animals when sports resume, whenever that might be.

And don’t worry your little hearts, @ModebaSan , @HuckFinn , and @WindsorHawk . I’ll definitely be back.
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You'll be back as a Coronoa Zombie




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tksirius said:
They've tested around 140,000 people. South Korea has a population of 51,270,000. Unless you think the percentage of those infected is somehow significantly lower in population not tested, the infected number is around 2.5 million to 3 million. If you figure 70 deaths into that, that's probably somewhere between 1 in 35,000 to 1 in 43,000. Previous reports put their death toll at 35; that's what I was using. The point is that as the number of people tested rises, the more will be positive and the more the mortality rate drops. That's why you can't take the numbers you hear from WHO at face value. The same goes with the seasonal flu. The amount of people infected is always much higher than they could possibly know. Most people don't get tested or even go to the doctor.
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One thing your numbers don't consider is the people who already have it but haven't died yet. That will bring up mortality rate a small amount more. To me, your math is way more accurate tho. I just think most illnesses that have a high death are the kind that knock you on your ass and put you in the hospital at a WAY higher rate than this one does. Either people are undervaluing that or I'm overvaluing it.
 
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