Except for buying the too early dip on cruise lines, I got back in at the right time and am up massive....subject to just as random downturns.
Glad to hear you did so well. What most people do is just ride out the storm. I did the same thing you did and I got out when the Dow was still around 27,000. The big mistake I made was making some minor changes when it got down to around 19,000. Then when got down to 18,000 I decided it was time to go back in and move my stocks from guaranteed government securities (no risk but very little return rate) back into the Dow, but I then found out that I am only allowed to move stocks twice a month and I had already exceeded that. So I watched the DOW climb that whole month up over 23,000 points and I couldn’t get back in until the first of the next month. Ouch, that mistake cost me over $100,000 in profit to my 401k.
I understand why people try to ride it out and just leave things alone because it’s really tricky to guess where the bottom is. It could have stopped at 27,000 and never gone down to 18,000. If it had done that then you suffer a loss why your sitting out and watching it go back up.
The first time I did this was back around the housing crisis. I watch the markets constantly and do a lot of reading and talk to a few people in the know. Back then the Dow was around 23,000 and I transferred everything to government securities. Then the DOW crashed down to 6500 I jumped back in at 7000 and rode it all the way back, tripling my 401k amount.
A guy at work who like most people are clueless about the economy and the markets saw what I was doing when the housing crisis was upon us. He only had five years until he retired. I told him to take everything out of the market and put it into government government securities. “Are you sure?” I said does the sun come up in the morning I responded. To this day he still thinks I am a genius. Imagine tripling you 401k just before you retire.
Yes there is a risk but if you get it right the rewards are tremendous. It works that way in sports sometimes too. You can play offense in a conservative way and get your 7.5 wins every season and lose out to the cheeseheads year after year after year. Or you can say f*ck it and gamble on offense. Even if you lose one or two more games a year it will be fun for the fans to watch you try crazy schemes like the wild cat.
A coach who has tenure should be last one to be conservative since he has nothing to lose. Now Brian is a different story. It’s going to come down to whether he is going to be a “ride it out” type of person or a “take chances” type of person. Yes you can get splattered on the highway sometimes if things go wrong in the stock market, but the rewards can be awesome if it goes right. I’d rather see Iowa coaches play all out with a wide open offense even if it means a four win season here and there.
Of courses it’s easy for me to say that when my a$$ isn’t on the line. I am just saying if it was me I would take the risk. So you end up getting fired after three seasons and have to walk away with only ten million dollars. That would be terrible wouldn’t it??? Kirk smiles at the sixty-million he has gotten playing it conservative on offense but half of that he should given to his last two defensive coordinators. Props to the Parkers on earth and in heaven!!!
As the song indicates I wonder if they really don’t have beer in heaven?