BigD
Well-Known Member
Totally agree on the bounce back if and when a vaccine is developed. The cash will be flowing. I also anticipate the DOW to climb to over 35,000 points.
Social Issue/Political Discussion Relating to Iowa Football
- Thread starter RobHowe
- Start date
Totally agree on the bounce back if and when a vaccine is developed. The cash will be flowing. I also anticipate the DOW to climb to over 35,000 points.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Yes they can be. Sometimes annoying. Sometimes useful.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Except for buying the too early dip on cruise lines, I got back in at the right time and am up massive....subject to just as random downturns.
Fryowa
Administrator
You should have never been out.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
It will be interesting for sure. The closest thing to cost and debt was ww2. There was a huge rebound followed by short but very severe downturns.
Like in 09 there has been and will be significant transfer of financial wealth, hitting the bottom really hard. The nation has never monetized debt so much as this one. One of two things to that could happen.....massive inflation similar to 1980 or worse or deflation. The only direction for interest rates to go is downward That is fueling stocks.
You are leaving out the Long Depression. Also to Ag Depressions that lasted 30 years and 16 years respectfully, not counting the Long Depression.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
My mutual funds I never changed. My stock I did and hit it. More luck than anything.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Not sure what you are talking about w Rob. I'm pretty much with him except on keeping KF.
He used to smack me about Rhabdo and the Doyle Award. It was abuse of power then and so many just wanted to believe it was toughness making the weak Supermen.
I wasn't wrong. About you, you didn't want to address my actual position.
Fryowa
Administrator
Relative to other times, those were slow burns. This thing was almost literally overnight from all systems go in the US to the lowest point our society has been in in several generations. And when it bounces it's going to be in a hurry. I'm not dumb enough to think there's going to be no COVID overnight, and there will be lingering economic and sociological costs that persist for a really long time, but when a vaccine is approved the economic and societal wheels are gonna turn quickly. The vaccines are being produced and stored even before approval (as we type), and they'll be distributed by the most fierce organization that's existed on the planet, the US military. Love it or hate it, there's no denying that it gets shit done double time if it wants to. You want an entire country brought violently to it's knees? It can do that in 2-3 hours from a carrier thousands of miles off your shore. You want 300 million syringes brought to every city in America as fast as humanly possible? We have that ability and we'll do it. There's an ironic dichotomy there and I have no doubt that even with all the garbage going on now we will get this right when the time comes.
Could there be bumps on the vaccine road that might slow things down? Sure. But this isn't going to be what brings us to our knees. Just the fact that there's an eventual end game will rouse people, whether it's 6 months from now or a year. I know everybody thinks I'm negative about everything but I'm not. Literally every US citizen has been in a shit mood for 4 months now, and we're at the tipping point of how much we can take, regardless of one's position on race relations or COVID. I can't think of a more stressful time with so much being dropped in humans' laps at once. When this thing cracks--and it will--there's going to be positivity that will rival the negativity we see now. Write it down. You've admitted it yourself, my batting average is over .500.
We are going to be ok.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
That's what I thought. I left mine, took about $97,000 initial loss in my retirement but it gained about 2/3rd back already. Stock market is surprisingly doing relatively well thru this so far.
Your assessment on a v shaped recovery is assuming people have money to burn. I am not sure they do. Another assumption you are making is that the government wants a v shaped recovery and there are lots of reasons and words written and spoken about why they don't and are instead perusing a u shaped recovery. In a u shaped recovery, like Gold said, it's more volatile.
Fryowa
Administrator
Ahhh. More economic commentary from a guy who tells people he can beat any sportsbook on the planet with his "system," but doesn't because...well, I don't know why...
You were also the guy who said he couldn't afford to replace his broken down appliances in his house, and that you paid a bill twice by accident which put you into a financial crisis. What do you have up your sleeve for reasons why we should believe your really bad Alan Greenspan impression?
Fryowa
Administrator
The NASDAQ is setting records almost daily right now.
Eat shit.
I'm not very worried about my retirement. I think we are down 4% is all. We were down a whole bunch more than that before I made some changes.
One thing you are right about is it will climb again, which wow that's an impressive prediction. I've been playing the market for over 25 years and have never heard such an insight.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
My Hawkeye gear value is taking a beating.
Some guy keeps writing about cracks in the accountability foundation.
Maybe the Fed will pump some liquidity into the stockholders. I think they need a new CEO and CFO. The VP in charge of moving the markers in sales growth will likely take the fall. The risk manager defending against risk will likely be unscathed.
Fry thinks it will be. V recovery w the Hawks winning the west.
Forever 4th and goal sees a swoosh recovery with 7-5.
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Yes very good and thought out as people who do not live together just cant be enclosed in close quarters and breathing on each other and in that captive air.
I am mainly golfing by myself but when I have golfed with others most courses have been renting more riding carts so that players can ride solo sometimes at a few bucks more.
If sports teams have the money for quick diagnostic testing at a very frequent rate they could use buses.
Rutgers and Univ of Iowa have both developed snort and spit diagnostic tests that do not require a swab of the sinuses and or throat. These tests I do not think have a same day turn around though.
But there are quick result tests that you could give just prior to putting a team on a bus. the problem is the fairly high rate of false negatives because swabbing does not always gather virus that is in the person.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
When I saw the name CNBC I didnt even open your sub blog
I'm going to guess it has something to do with long term potential damage of Covid-19. Yes that is a legit concern. But we may not know one way or the other for decades. Jumping to conclusions based on small sample sizes is like freaking out when four of five athlete's test positive in a minute sample size, wide open to randomness.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
I'm about fifteen years away from reasonable retirement age and my wife and I just recently had our annual meeting with our financial person. He told (begged) us to go as agressive as we felt was comfortable. I as well see the DOW skyrocketing when we get past this dreck.
D
DDThompson
Guest
Anyone know if Wadley is on a milk carton or is he twitter boxing?