Milestone

[racerhawk]

A very objective post. I appreciate that. I am sincerely asking this so I can better understand what is going on. Can you explain my post above your post? Maybe I am not reading or grasping something correctly.

How do those numbers work, especially how do the deaths double after over half the population gets vaccinated? One would think the numbers would be astronomical the year when nobody was vaccinated. I sincerely and honestly invite your thoughts or input on this since you have first hand experience.

There's no conspiracy here. If half the population is unvaccinated, that's a shit ton of people who are at risk for death. When spikes occur, those people get sick and die. 50% of the population doesn't confer herd immunity. We'll likely not achieve that as we were late on the draw, and the thing also mutates pretty quickly. So, now it's kinda like the influenza virus. Based on new variants, scientists basically do a "best guess" with quadravalent influenza vaccines. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes it's not as great in terms of efficacy.

I didn't mean to necessarily link our posts. I sometimes reply to a post and include it. Sorry about that.

 

[Glass1/2fullguy]

I won't argue with anyone on this topic Getting vaccinated protects others as well as yourself. It's the correct thing to do. Full stop.

Isn’t it said that disinformation is the new domestic terrorist threat? Your opinion is exactly what it is but spreading disinformation will get you canceled.

 

[racerhawk]

Isn’t it said that disinformation is the new domestic terrorist threat? Your opinion is exactly what it is but spreading disinformation will get you canceled.

What kind of gibberish is this?

I'll be done now (and is why I don't argue with random folks on the internet these days about covid, public health, etc). You're wrong, but you're entitled to your opinion.

I guess I could ignore my colleagues in epidemiology and listen to randos on the internet. Convince me.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

There's no conspiracy here. If half the population is unvaccinated, that's a shit ton of people who are at risk for death. When spikes occur, those people get sick and die. 50% of the population doesn't confer herd immunity. We'll likely not achieve that as we were late on the draw, and the thing also mutates pretty quickly. So, now it's kinda like the influenza virus. Based on new variants, scientists basically do a "best guess" with quadravalent influenza vaccines. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes it's not as great in terms of efficacy.

I didn't mean to necessarily link our posts. I sometimes reply to a post and include it. Sorry about that.

But what I am having a hard time understanding or grasping is that in the infancy, nobody was vaccinated. It was reported that those who were vaccinated may still get it, and that proved to be correct, but the symptoms and hospitalizations were less. So, if more people were vaccinated (even at 50%), then why would there be more deaths reported during the years the vaccinations were distributed. Just seems backwards to me. Also, by what I reviewed around 80-98% of the population got at least the first two doses, which breaks down more specifically by age group.

The only thing I can think of is people had a false sense of security and started opening up and going places after getting the vaccination, and still transferring the virus, relatively symptom free. We have loosened up since the spring of 2020 and people haven't been as diligent with masks and precautions. We got lax and at the same time restrictions were being lifted last fall and year.

 

[Glass1/2fullguy]

But what I am having a hard time understanding or grasping is that in the infancy, nobody was vaccinated. It was reported that those who were vaccinated may still get it, and that proved to be correct, but the symptoms and hospitalizations were less. So, if more people were vaccinated (even at 50%), then why would there be more deaths reported during the years the vaccinations were distributed. Just seems backwards to me. Also, by what I reviewed around 80-98% of the population got at least the first two doses, which breaks down more specifically by age group.

The only thing I can think of is people had a false sense of security and started opening up and going places after getting the vaccination, and still transferring the virus, relatively symptom free. We have loosened up since the spring of 2020 and people haven't been as diligent with masks and precautions. We got lax and at the same time restrictions were being lifted last fall and year.

But according to racerhawk this is not possible. Otherwise his rhetoric on "protecting others" no longer has merit.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

But according to racerhawk this is not possible. Otherwise his rhetoric on "protecting others" no longer has merit.

Yea, it just doesn't make sense and the data does not support that transmission was ever less, because of vaccinations. Interestingly, there is debate that the vaccinations actually contributed to the virus transmitting more readily from those vaccinated as there was a false sense of security.

 

[racerhawk]

But what I am having a hard time understanding or grasping is that in the infancy, nobody was vaccinated. It was reported that those who were vaccinated may still get it, and that proved to be correct, but the symptoms and hospitalizations were less. So, if more people were vaccinated (even at 50%), then why would there be more deaths reported during the years the vaccinations were distributed. Just seems backwards to me. Also, by what I reviewed around 80-98% of the population got at least the first two doses, which breaks down more specifically by age group.

The only thing I can think of is people had a false sense of security and started opening up and going places after getting the vaccination, and still transferring the virus, relatively symptom free. We have loosened up since the spring of 2020 and people haven't been as diligent with masks and precautions. We got lax and at the same time restrictions were being lifted last fall and year.

I think that's basically right. More people are vaccinated (far fewer than what would matter for total viral load in a population), but yes, that did protect a larger percentage of people from death (but not necessarily from getting the disease).

Vaccines help people to stay alive. We did see lots of vaccinated people get Covid in the Omicron surge, and some had some pretty bad symptoms. We did see a drop off in deaths, though. Most all of the deaths now are amongst the unvaccinated. Generally speaking, unvaccinated and older adults with medical comorbidities die. Kinda multifactorial. So, if there's a big viral reservoir in the population, and only 50% are vaccinated, there's a lot of viral load in the population, and unvaccinated people are the ones that are unfortunately dying. The deaths have dropped a LOT, even if the total number of cases haven't during surges like Omicron.

The unpredictability of mutations and spikes is the wild card in all of this. I'll include a chart from Covid Act Now that shows deaths through different surges. So, our vaccination status matters...unfortunately the virus also seems to do interesting things over time as well.

Personally, I would say get vaccinated, and we learn to live with the virus as we move from pandemic to a virus that is endemic (like influenza). Maybe hot spots wear masks indoors during spikes, but overall, I think, our society should roll on and stay open. Probably should've been that way for a while.

What a lot of people don't realize is that even a moderate spike in ICU hospitalizations can be very troubling for a hospital. Some hospitals are nearly 100% full all of the time, regardless of Covid patients. A big spike causes delays and problems for all patients.

I've been showing up to work in person for the entire pandemic. I fill out a symptom tracker every day, I wear a mask while in the hospital, and I've been healthy to date. I'm around a lot of people. I don't like wearing a mask indoors but if it protects my colleagues and patients, I'm gonna do that. It's not just about me as an individual. It's about community.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

What kind of gibberish is this?

I'll be done now (and is why I don't argue with random folks on the internet these days about covid, public health, etc). You're wrong, but you're entitled to your opinion.

I guess I could ignore my colleagues in epidemiology and listen to randos on the internet. Convince me.

Exactly my department at a university. I am not an epidemiologist but have been in that department for 29.5 years now. My interest is specific to another disease.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

I think that's basically right. More people are vaccinated (far fewer than what would matter for total viral load in a population), but yes, that did protect a larger percentage of people from death (but not necessarily from getting the disease).

Vaccines help people to stay alive. We did see lots of vaccinated people get Covid in the Omicron surge, and some had some pretty bad symptoms. We did see a drop off in deaths, though. Most all of the deaths now are amongst the unvaccinated. Generally speaking, unvaccinated and older adults with medical comorbidities die. Kinda multifactorial. So, if there's a big viral reservoir in the population, and only 50% are vaccinated, there's a lot of viral load in the population, and unvaccinated people are the ones that are unfortunately dying. The deaths have dropped a LOT, even if the total number of cases haven't during surges like Omicron.

The unpredictability of mutations and spikes is the wild card in all of this. I'll include a chart from Covid Act Now that shows deaths through different surges. So, our vaccination status matters...unfortunately the virus also seems to do interesting things over time as well.

Personally, I would say get vaccinated, and we learn to live with the virus as we move from pandemic to a virus that is endemic (like influenza). Maybe hot spots wear masks indoors during spikes, but overall, I think, our society should roll on and stay open. Probably should've been that way for a while.

What a lot of people don't realize is that even a moderate spike in ICU hospitalizations can be very troubling for a hospital. Some hospitals are nearly 100% full all of the time, regardless of Covid patients. A big spike causes delays and problems for all patients.

I've been showing up to work in person for the entire pandemic. I fill out a symptom tracker every day, I wear a mask while in the hospital, and I've been healthy to date. I'm around a lot of people. I don't like wearing a mask indoors but if it protects my colleagues and patients, I'm gonna do that. It's not just about me as an individual. It's about community.

View attachment 9011

Again, your thoughts are very much appreciated. Does provide some explanation.

 

[thedukeofearl]

Now: MonkeyPox

 

[racerhawk]

But according to racerhawk this is not possible. Otherwise his rhetoric on "protecting others" no longer has merit.

If you don't get the disease, you can't spread it. There are two ways to protect others...(vaccination does decrease your chance of contracting COVID, and wearing a well fitting N95 or KN95 mask is VERY effective in preventing transmission to others). Both methods protect others, for different reasons.

​

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What do we know about covid vaccines and preventing transmission?

Vaccines that work against SARS-CoV-2 have helped change the course of the pandemic by reducing illness and hospital admissions. But Chris Stokel-Walker asks what we know about their impact on preventing transmission. The range of vaccines developed in record time by pharmaceutical companies...

www.bmj.com

How could vaccines help reduce transmission?​

Vaccines aren’t preventing onward transmission by reducing the viral load—or amount of SARS-CoV-2—in your body. “Most studies show if you got an infection after vaccination, compared with someone who got an infection without a vaccine, you were pretty much shedding roughly the same amount of virus,” says Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia. One study,5 sponsored by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), found “no difference in infectious virus titer between groups” who had been vaccinated and had not.

Instead, it’s the principle that the UKHSA identified above: if you don’t get infected in the first place thanks to a vaccine, you can’t spread it. Once you’re infected, you still can—although what we know about the window when you’re most likely to transmit the virus to others has improved.

 

[racerhawk]

Again, your thoughts are very much appreciated. Does provide some explanation.

Thank you! I actually enjoy discussing issues (even politics) but oftentimes people can't respectfully disagree about stuff anymore (it seems) without resorting to ad hominem personal attacks. I am not an epidemiologist, and I'm also still learning about all of this. I appreciate the thoughts.

I also know that I'm wrong about a LOT of things (politics, sports, even health care stuff). We're all just a bunch of hawk fans trying to figure out our insane world.

 

[racerhawk]

Now: MonkeyPox

What a time to be alive.

 

[racerhawk]

Exactly my department at a university. I am not an epidemiologist but have been in that department for 29.5 years now. My interest is specific to another disease.

Interesting. What is the other disease, if you can say?

 

[racerhawk]

Yea, it just doesn't make sense and the data does not support that transmission was ever less, because of vaccinations. Interestingly, there is debate that the vaccinations actually contributed to the virus transmitting more readily from those vaccinated as there was a false sense of security.

It could be that we have a false sense of security.

 

[HawkGold]

I won't argue with anyone on this topic Getting vaccinated protects others as well as yourself. It's the correct thing to do. Full stop.

Not really interested in debating either. My wife works in the medical industry. Full stop is there isn't much risk beyond normal for most. What needs to be factored is:

J and J is pretty much off the market. Why?

Is the death rate for at risk people greater than the death rate per VAERS statistics?

Do you for fact know what the long term studies will show on mRNA vaxes?

Fact is neither you NOR I know these answers. I CAN tell you we have corruption in the US including the medical industry. I can tell you a healthy person under 65 of proper weight and health has VERY LITTLE risk and the risk from the vaxes may rival the benefits.

We need to clear up several societal problems
1. Corruption which will build trust
2. Our unhealthy lifestyles which on this pandemic is at the core of the issue.

I would never ask anyone to take on equal or greater risk from a vax especially when MOST of the persons succumbing have made their OWN life choices and a societal cost to all of us in the form of insurance/medical costs and so forth. That includes deaths and harm created by economic losses.

I had Delta in February. I got it from assisting a fully vaccinated person who caught it from fully vaccinated health care workers. The choice to help was mine. I felt pretty bad for 3 days and slept another 2. During the 3 days I went on a major hike in an isolated area as I couldn't stand the back pain from sitting/lying down.

I have watched these companies that also do Ag Chemicals for decades. I can tell you that emergency labels are a complete joke. We also did not know the environmental impacts on gmo crops. We got rid of moths, bees, and monarchs at the same time and were told there would be no monarch or bee impact.

Cry me a river when in 10 years we have a complete study of the impact of the vaccines. I'm not sacrificing my health needlessly for your medical CEO or the head of Pfizer without more information.

If you are in the medical field, why aren't they talking about the 2ndary properties of natural immunity in addition to the spike protein?

Spend time trying to address the poverty issues confronting minority populations on the matter.

Full Stop. Lose weight, don't smoke, lose weight. Lose weight, lose weight.

then we can discuss.

 

[HuckFinn]

I'll start by being transparent. I work in health care and currently am employed by one of the top health systems in the US. I listen to daily safety and epidemiology updates on a system wide call five days a week... now going on for a couple of years. So, I hear a lot of leading edge info and current trends.

I have ZERO interest in debating with people based upon their opinions about what is effective and not effective in terms of covid. It is true that medical comorbidities (such as obesity) increase risk for mortality with covid.

Having said that, VACCINES are VERY effective in limiting death. People are still dying in our ICUs, but almost all of them are unvaccinated. Just being factual here.

I do agree that covid, and our responses, have had tremendous effects on the mental well being of our entire population, and it will be affecting us for years to come.

The problem with our discourse on this issue is that (like many issues in politics), we've lost the ability to take perspective, and hold two items in our head that may be different... and both may be true.

For instance, Covid has been terrible and killed a million people. That's not normal, and it's not expected. It has been devastating for communities, families, and health care workers. Imagine being an ICU nurse and having to put 4 patients in body bags on your shift, without allowing families in to say goodbye. These things happened. Also, families are now rageful to healthcare workers because they have apparently been watching TV and don't trust us. It's shameful.

On the other side, covid has been terrible for mental health and addiction. Some years ago, we lost around 40,000 Americans per year due to drug addiction/overdoses (most opiates). We are now over 100K dead per year. A huge increase. It's terrible. Also, our psych units are always full and suicide rates are up. It's really terrible.

I have a suggestion: listen to academics and public health experts (and not Facebook University or Faux News). Also, allow mental space for several things to be true at one time (Covid IS terrible, is still going to kill people, and yet the effects of shutdowns have been debilitating as well). They are both true.

In short, have some compassion, get vaccinated, and listen to the experts.

Thank you.

 

[racerhawk]

Not really interested in debating either. My wife works in the medical industry. Full stop is there isn't much risk beyond normal for most. What needs to be factored is:

J and J is pretty much off the market. Why?

Is the death rate for at risk people greater than the death rate per VAERS statistics?

Do you for fact know what the long term studies will show on mRNA vaxes?

Fact is neither you NOR I know these answers. I CAN tell you we have corruption in the US including the medical industry. I can tell you a healthy person under 65 of proper weight and health has VERY LITTLE risk and the risk from the vaxes may rival the benefits.

We need to clear up several societal problems
1. Corruption which will build trust
2. Our unhealthy lifestyles which on this pandemic is at the core of the issue.

I would never ask anyone to take on equal or greater risk from a vax especially when MOST of the persons succumbing have made their OWN life choices and a societal cost to all of us in the form of insurance/medical costs and so forth. That includes deaths and harm created by economic losses.

I had Delta in February. I got it from assisting a fully vaccinated person who caught it from fully vaccinated health care workers. The choice to help was mine. I felt pretty bad for 3 days and slept another 2. During the 3 days I went on a major hike in an isolated area as I couldn't stand the back pain from sitting/lying down.

I have watched these companies that also do Ag Chemicals for decades. I can tell you that emergency labels are a complete joke. We also did not know the environmental impacts on gmo crops. We got rid of moths, bees, and monarchs at the same time and were told there would be no monarch or bee impact.

Cry me a river when in 10 years we have a complete study of the impact of the vaccines. I'm not sacrificing my health needlessly for your medical CEO or the head of Pfizer without more information.

If you are in the medical field, why aren't they talking about the 2ndary properties of natural immunity in addition to the spike protein?

Spend time trying to address the poverty issues confronting minority populations on the matter.

Full Stop. Lose weight, don't smoke, lose weight. Lose weight, lose weight.

then we can discuss.

Can you provide some data (from legit sources like peer reviewed journals or even health organizations) that describes the safety problems with vaccines over time? I think you could make a compelling case regarding your fear of vaccines if you were to provide some relevant data showing a poor track record for vaccines and their safety.

Any data you provide regarding safety must be weighed against this (per World Health Organization's website):
Vaccination is one of the best ways to prevent diseases. In total, vaccines are estimated to save between 2 and 3 million lives every year.

So, if vaccines save up to 3 million lives per year, I'm curious, in terms of risk vs benefit, how many people are being killed by vaccines?



BTW-- I totally agree that governments, universities, hospitals all need to address health inequities. We are working on it here but it's a massive problem. So, I agree with you on that one.

 

[Northside Hawk]

You know how fucked up this is and the reporting?

So, 300,000 people perished in the year prior to the vaccinations. So, after the vaccinations are distributed, 700,000 people perished. In the article, the writer blames all these deaths on all the people who never got vaccinated.....................ah............Ok. Vaccination rate among 18-64 yr olds was/is like 75-80%, it's up like to 93-95% 65 year old and higher age. So, even though most Americans did end up getting the vaccine, we still had more deaths than the year prior when nobody had the vaccine?? krist!

I guess they can spin it the way they want! It's such illogical thinking, I can't understand how people think they can sell that shit. It's like, use your common sense and break it down.

Bend people's minds and they will believe anything.

Two things I've been saying from the beginning of this:

Respect it, but don't fear it.
Once again. We have proven that we are no match for mother nature.

Unfortunately some people's minds are for rent. And they will believe anything you tell them. And they will comply and obey. Because they have been convinced that this is their comfort zone.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Can you provide some data (from legit sources like peer reviewed journals or even health organizations) that describes the safety problems with vaccines over time? I think you could make a compelling case regarding your fear of vaccines if you were to provide some relevant data showing a poor track record for vaccines and their safety.

Any data you provide regarding safety must be weighed against this (per World Health Organization's website):
Vaccination is one of the best ways to prevent diseases. In total, vaccines are estimated to save between 2 and 3 million lives every year.

So, if vaccines save up to 3 million lives per year, I'm curious, in terms of risk vs benefit, how many people are being killed by vaccines?



BTW-- I totally agree that governments, universities, hospitals all need to address health inequities. We are working on it here but it's a massive problem. So, I agree with you on that one.

I would suspect that all vaccines, taken as a whole, save more than 3 million lives per year. You ask for a study that describes the safety problems with vaccines over time. That's the rub with this go 'round. There is no long term study. The EUA study was fucking 12 weeks. The long term study is going on right now and we're all part of it. That EUA study concluded the Pfizer vaccine was "95% effective" with efficacy defined essentially as "you won't get COVID." That was calculated by taking 1-(8/162), 8 being the number of people in the test group who got The Germ, 162 being the number of people in the control group who got The Germ. I got ballz deep in stats classes in college and that methodology struck me as total horseshit in 2020 when I read it and it has been completely blown apart in practice over the past 18 months.

"Well, we were wrong about efficacy but we're totally right about safety..." Sorry bruh, I'll take my chances. Older, higher risk people should absolutely get the jab, but pushing it on 5 year olds seems really fucking absurd to me.

Don't get me wrong, I trust science. The science underpinning the modern iteration of mRNA vaccines is really cool, very promising shit. But unfortunately, money has absolutely perverted the pursuit of science in the United States and the West in general. For an example in healthcare look no further than Tamiflu.

Political expediency also pushes the notion of questioning science and the herd of "scientific consensus" to the backseat. Doctors aren't willing to question the prevailing narrative lest they find themselves dragged in front of professional review boards. A great example of political expediency, coupled with government contractors trying to ride a perpetual government gravy train was what happened after the control tower said "Challenger, go with throttle up..."