In-State PG D.J. Carton Places Hawkeyes Among Top 6

NoBeer said:
They're not just guessing, they're talking with sources, coaches, players, other people they've built relationships with over the years who have actual information. Who are you speaking with? You don't have to name names, just let me know how many insiders with actual knowledge you've reached out to?
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I don't reach out to any one. Nor do I pretend to have any sort of inside knowledge. I go off what I read and hear on podcast from Iowa media. His Grandfather played at Iowa, Iowa was one of the first programs in on him, his family lives less then an hour away and he's played AAU ball with what will be half his team. From every Iowa beat guy, Iowa is great shape with DJ, but they don't know, and they likely cover him more then 247 or anyone. It's a guess, cause no one knows. Like Dean just said, 3 weeks ago his prediction was WI. The fact that he hasn't already committed to Iowa with all those factors, coupled with his rating is exactly why they are NOT predicting Iowa. I get that. But it doesn't mean they some how know more then any one else. That's not really looking at it objectively.
 
Adam said:
I have no info or insider access to DJ, but I will run down my opinion for immediate ridicule.

I will start with Marquette. I believe Marquette made the initial cut because they are psychologically similar to Michigan. Similar colors and similar logos. I assume the Marquette coach Steve howeverthehellyouspellit must have made a good first impression. It is my opinion that the more DJ experiences Marquette the more he will be off put by a Catholic institution. I expect Marquette to be eliminated pretty early.

Indiana. Archie Miller would have to be 1 hell of a salesman to land DJ. Indiana has a fine tradition, but their current trajectory is certainly not interstellar. The slime on his family name right now and the shade that undoubtedly comes with it is alone a major obstacle. I really can't take Indiana as a serious contender here.

Xavier. Good school, good basketball program, good coach. Again thought it's a Catholic school in dirty ass Cincinnati. I would imagine another visit to Xavier will help erode the initial intrigue. I don't see them having legs in this race.

Now for the schools I believe have the best chance.

OSU. I am listing these in runner up order. I believe OSU could and might land DJ. Huge university and a culture that caters to football and basketball players. Holtmann had an amazing year 1 campaign and has the program trending towards a return to perennial contention. Ultimately though I think OSU will get antsy waiting on an Iowa kid and pull the trigger with an in state prospect who's life long dream is being a buckeye.

Iowa. I believe Iowa is in proverbial 2nd place. I think the kid has some homer lean to the University. I believe he is torn though by our last 2 seasons. No one wants to be a part of a team that experiences what we did this last season. I think DJ is comfortable with the coaches and most of our younger recruits. I think Iowa has the staying power to remain in the equation up until the decision.

Michigan. If it ended right now I would put my money on Michigan. John Beilein is one of the most likeable coaches in America. The program he has built has a feel of humble superiority. Beilein has proven that he can showcase an individual's talent while still competing at the highest level. Beilein has proven that he is a developer of young men. If a decision is to be made purely on Basketball, then I don't see how Michigan isn't the front runner.

All of these logic threads unravel quickly if one of the big 4 enters the fray. If KU, Duke, NC or Kentucky comes a calling this story will probably end up like most of its counterparts. However I do believe Iowa stays in the discussion until the very end.
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Just curious, but over the weekend I saw 247 rated Michigan a 78% chance to land DJ. How do they come up with that calculation? 78% of experts predict that or what?
 
There are different things on which to keep an eye when it comes to 247 crystal ball:

Pay attention more to what the national guys are saying than the guys predicting from team sites. Guys like Wiltfong and Trieu usually have more impartial information. Wiltfong helps pick guys for the Army All-American game. Recruits and their coaches know that. They often feed him the commitment right before it happens. As Dean V said, if you see a crystal ball switch heavily towards a school right after a kid announces a commitment date or close to a commitment date, there's often something to it.

That's for football recruiting but also holds for basketball.
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
Just curious, but over the weekend I saw 247 rated Michigan a 78% chance to land DJ. How do they come up with that calculation? 78% of experts predict that or what?
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There can't be any valid stats geek way of picking that number out of the sky. That seems pretty random. I don't think he's tipped his cap much at all beyond narrowing down the list to 6. I think Michigan would be toughest for him to say no to but there's no way of putting a number to it. Their guessing too unless they know something they aren't reporting.
 
I remember watching the podcast when Dom Uhl committed. The guy doing the interview (I presume) was so sure he was going to Temple that when Dom said Iowa he just sat there for a few seconds...then fumbled through a couple of questions.

I'm sure it varies from kid to kid and family to family. But I suspect the order of things is decision...tell parents who likely already knew...tell future college coach...contact other coaches that were in it until the end...make it public.
 
RobHowe said:
There are different things on which to keep an eye when it comes to 247 crystal ball:

Pay attention more to what the national guys are saying than the guys predicting from team sites. Guys like Wiltfong and Trieu usually have more impartial information. Wiltfong helps pick guys for the Army All-American game. Recruits and their coaches know that. They often feed him the commitment right before it happens. As Dean V said, if you see a crystal ball switch heavily towards a school right after a kid announces a commitment date or close to a commitment date, there's often something to it.

That's for football recruiting but also holds for basketball.
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Exactly.

The other things to pay attention to are the date of the prediction and the total numbers of predictions. They use all of the predictions when they calculate the percentages, but some of those predictions frequently are months old, or, it may state "100%," but there may only be one prediction.

You want to pay attention to which writer is making the prediction, and also pay attention to the trend of the predictions.

That said, I always kind of chuckle about the whole "Crystal Ball" thing. As you said, many writers don't make their prediction until they have solid inside information, and they call that a prediction? Not exactly gazing into a crystal ball and going out a limb there... It's not much different than shouting out a "Wheel of Fortune" puzzle when there's one box left.
 
#1DieHardHawk said:
Exactly.

The other things to pay attention to are the date of the prediction and the total numbers of predictions. They use all of the predictions when they calculate the percentages, but some of those predictions frequently are months old, or, it may state "100%," but there may only be one prediction.

You want to pay attention to which writer is making the prediction, and also pay attention to the trend of the predictions.

That said, I always kind of chuckle about the whole "Crystal Ball" thing. As you said, many writers don't make their prediction until they have solid inside information, and they call that a prediction? Not exactly gazing into a crystal ball and going out a limb there... It's not much different than shouting out a "Wheel of Fortune" puzzle when there's one box left.
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Lol, haven't thought about wheel of fortune for about a decade. Is that show still on?
 
Carton Interview.JPG
Sorry if this is hard to read... I'm still confident Iowa can land DJ, but him naming OSU/IU/UM as the 3 schools most actively recruiting him makes me sad
 
From the article:

"LJ: What were your averages last season?
DJ: 24 points 6 rebounds 6 assists 2 steals."

DJ's actual stats...

23.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.36 assists, 1.63 steals

I'd have to say there might be an integrity issue or "hopefully" Mr. Leader Johnson simply misquoted him....
 
Him saying he's still open to more offers... just doesn't seem to match with some other stuff he's said in the past.
 
tksirius said:
From the article:

"LJ: What were your averages last season?
DJ: 24 points 6 rebounds 6 assists 2 steals."

DJ's actual stats...

23.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.36 assists, 1.63 steals

I'd have to say there might be an integrity issue or "hopefully" Mr. Leader Johnson simply misquoted him....
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Not sure if serious...o_O Integrity issue?
 
hawkewilly said:
View attachment 3393
Sorry if this is hard to read... I'm still confident Iowa can land DJ, but him naming OSU/IU/UM as the 3 schools most actively recruiting him makes me sad
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This just strengthens my belief that Fran isn't too concerned about landing a point guard in the '19 class because he fully expects Connor to fill that role. I suppose Fran will put more effort into a PG in the '20 class, since Connor we'll need a backup. ;)
 
tksirius said:
From the article:

"LJ: What were your averages last season?
DJ: 24 points 6 rebounds 6 assists 2 steals."

DJ's actual stats...

23.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.36 assists, 1.63 steals

I'd have to say there might be an integrity issue or "hopefully" Mr. Leader Johnson simply misquoted him....
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Alternative stats? Ha.
He seems pretty hopeful that he'll get some new offers by the sounds of it. It's like he set his top 6 to try enticing others or something. Not mentioning Iowa as one of the schools that's after him the hardest disappoints me. I dunno, it seems like Iowa's swimming up stream for him the longer this is going hope I'm wrong
 
So if no DJ and no Terry, we'll have to settle for some lower rated point or just let Garza handle the ball. :rolleyes:
 
tksirius said:
Yeah, if he told him he averaged 6 assists a game, he lied to make himself look better. #Integrity
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I can tell you place a high value on integrity by posting your profile pic for the public to see. Bold move, my friend. #respect
 
tksirius said:
Yeah, if he told him he averaged 6 assists a game, he lied to make himself look better. #Integrity
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It appears that DJ did in fact tell him he averaged 6 assists...

6-1-2018_12-40-33_PM.jpg
 
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