Hawks in the NCAA Tournament:

RPI is a pretty bad stat all by itself. Right now Minnesota's RPI is 24...Lunardi has them as a 10 seed and Palm has them as a 7 seed. In other words they're squarely on the bubble with an RPI of 23. Meanwhile, Iowa's RPI is the second worst in the Big Ten right now at 100 which is silly, but that's RPI for ya.

Iowa needs a miracle to get into the NCAA tournament at this point. They don't have enough quality wins and only 1 road win all year. If they win 6 of their remaining 7 games then I'm sure they get in. Good luck with that though ;)

Fact is teams dont move that much during the conference tournaments. the committee selects teams prior to the tournaments and then slightly adjusts accordingly...very slightly
 
Yeah, agree with mopkins - Iowa pretty much has to run the table with its remaining games to really even have a shot.. And with four tough road games left, I just don't see that happening this year.

If they can win 6 of 7, get to 20-11, win two in the BTT then I'd feel pretty good, but that's a tall order. @MN, @MSU, @MD, @Wisky... Yikes.

Other than Omaha, Iowa doesn't really have much for bad losses, but very few quality wins. Just two in the Top 50. 5-9 against the Top 100.. That's not so hot.
 
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1977Hawkeye said:
Yeah, agree with mopkins - Iowa pretty much has to run the table with its remaining games to really even have a shot.. And with four tough road games left, I just don't see that happening this year.

If they can win 6 of 7, get to 20-11, win two in the BTT then I'd feel pretty good, but that's a tall order.

Other than Omaha, Iowa doesn't really have much for bad losses, but very few quality wins. Just two in the Top 50. 5-9 against the Top 100.. That's not so hot.
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Good wins aren't a problem for us at all. The problem is total wins. If our total wins problem gets fixed, our good wins problem will have to get fixed too because there are so many good teams left on our schedule that we will have to beat.
 
PCHawk said:
Good wins aren't a problem for us at all. The problem is total wins. If our total wins problem gets fixed, our good wins problem will have to get fixed too because there are so many good teams left on our schedule that we will have to beat.
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Very true. With the remaining schedule there are plenty of opportunities. So if Iowa gets 19-20 wins, there will be some additional quality added to the resume by default.

Unfortunately Iowa played itself into the situation of needing to probably earn at least a split in those last 4 road games, at the very worst. We're talking about a team that's won ONE road game all year (Rutgers) - so they may be lucky to win one of those last four. But I'd like to be wrong - there's always hope that this team can stay hot.
 
We win vs. Minny and I think we're on the fringe of being on the bubble of the fringe of the bubble. About as much chance as the Patriots had with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter last night.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Very true. With the remaining schedule there are plenty of opportunities. So if Iowa gets 19-20 wins, there will be some additional quality added to the resume by default.

Unfortunately Iowa played itself into the situation of needing to probably earn at least a split in those last 4 road games, at the very worst. We're talking about a team that's won ONE road game all year (Rutgers) - so they may be lucky to win one of those last four. But I'd like to be wrong - there's always hope that this team can stay hot.
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Yea we have to win out at home and go 2-2 on the road just to have a chance. Extremely unlikely. I hope to get at least one win this week just to keep the hope alive a little longer.
 
PCHawk said:
Yea we have to win out at home and go 2-2 on the road just to have a chance. Extremely unlikely. I hope to get at least one win this week just to keep the hope alive a little longer.
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If we win out at home, and win one of Minny or MSU we will be at about 60 in the RPI at 19-12. At least that is what an RPI calculator projection site says.
 
deanvogs said:
If we win out at home, and win one of Minny or MSU we will be at about 60 in the RPI at 19-12. At least that is what an RPI calculator projection site says.
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Yea we would have to win one of Wisconsin or Maryland. Sorry I thought that was clear we need to only lose 2 more games.
 
PCHawk said:
Yea we would have to win one of Wisconsin or Maryland. Sorry I thought that was clear we need to only lose 2 more games.
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Yeah, I haven't been in this thread, because from a long time ago I thought it was a pipe dream that we could make the NCAA tournament. Still do, but I've been wrong before, I thought for sure New England was finished last night....
 
deanvogs said:
Yeah, I haven't been in this thread, because from a long time ago I thought it was a pipe dream that we could make the NCAA tournament. Still do, but I've been wrong before, I thought for sure New England was finished last night....
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It is still a pipe dream. But if we could somehow go 2-0 this week....
 
PCHawk said:
Good wins aren't a problem for us at all. The problem is total wins. If our total wins problem gets fixed, our good wins problem will have to get fixed too because there are so many good teams left on our schedule that we will have to beat.
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ISU has the same number of total wins as Iowa, but they have an RPI 60 spots higher. Iowa is 1-5 on the road and 1-2 on neutral sites.

ISU is 3-4 on the road and 3-1 on neutral sites. That's the difference honestly.
 
BryceC said:
ISU has the same number of total wins as Iowa, but they have an RPI 60 spots higher. Iowa is 1-5 on the road and 1-2 on neutral sites.

ISU is 3-4 on the road and 3-1 on neutral sites. That's the difference honestly.
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Playing Wisconsin, Maryland and MSU alone will drive our RPI up. If we go .500 and 1 or 2 in the BIG tourney I think we are on the NCAA bubble. Something every Iowa fan appeantly forgets is Iowa has made the tourney 3 years running. I believe that the selection committee does show favoritism to known quantities. Also we have one of the nation's premier scorers and we are trending upwards. If we can hold water and go .500 to close out confrence play. I think we have a legitimate chance of the play in game.
 
deanvogs said:
If we win out at home, and win one of Minny or MSU we will be at about 60 in the RPI at 19-12. At least that is what an RPI calculator projection site says.
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Interesting. If that's true, then the Hawks still have an outside shot. I think that actually gets us to 18 wins if my math is right (3 home games, 4 on the road) unless you were assuming we split the MD/Wisky games, too.

Still, 60 is not great - the Hawks would 4need to do some damage in the BTT to have a real chance IMO. Probably have to win at least two, I would guess.

It's a steep uphill climb, no doubt, but if the Hawks can find a way to split the next two, then I won't totally rule it out. Start by beating Minnesota.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Interesting. If that's true, then the Hawks still have an outside shot. I think that actually gets us to 18 wins if my math is right (3 home games, 4 on the road) unless you were assuming we split the MD/Wisky games, too.

Still, 60 is not great - the Hawks would 4need to do some damage in the BTT to have a real chance IMO. Probably have to win at least two, I would guess.

It's a steep uphill climb, no doubt, but if the Hawks can find a way to split the next two, then I won't totally rule it out. Start by beating Minnesota.
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I really haven't talked about Iowa making the NCAA because I just don't see it right now. If Iowa can beat either Minny or MSU in the next week I might start entertaining the thought.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Interesting. If that's true, then the Hawks still have an outside shot. I think that actually gets us to 18 wins if my math is right (3 home games, 4 on the road) unless you were assuming we split the MD/Wisky games, too.

Still, 60 is not great - the Hawks would 4need to do some damage in the BTT to have a real chance IMO. Probably have to win at least two, I would guess.

It's a steep uphill climb, no doubt, but if the Hawks can find a way to split the next two, then I won't totally rule it out. Start by beating Minnesota.
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It sure would be nice going into the Wisconsin and Maryland games knowing if we can just win one of those and beat Penn State at home we can get on the bubble.
 
1977Hawkeye said:
Interesting. If that's true, then the Hawks still have an outside shot. I think that actually gets us to 18 wins if my math is right (3 home games, 4 on the road) unless you were assuming we split the MD/Wisky games, too.

Still, 60 is not great - the Hawks would 4need to do some damage in the BTT to have a real chance IMO. Probably have to win at least two, I would guess.

It's a steep uphill climb, no doubt, but if the Hawks can find a way to split the next two, then I won't totally rule it out. Start by beating Minnesota.
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60 RPI isn't good? C'mon man...64 teams make it into the tourney bro. 60 RPI is fine in my book and if we end up there with a strong finish I bet we are in.
 
Adam said:
60 RPI isn't good? C'mon man...64 teams make it into the tourney bro. 60 RPI is fine in my book and if we end up there with a strong finish I bet we are in.
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No, it isn't. It puts you in range, but it's far from a lock. Very few teams have made the dance as an at large with an RPI in the 60's. You really would like to be at least in the 30's or 40's to feel good about it.

You've also gotta remember all the automatic bids, so there are nowhere near 64 spots open to at-large teams.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...rnament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years

Lowest RPI to get an at-large bid:
• 67 - USC (2011)
• 64 - Marquette (2011)
• 63 - North Carolina State (2005), Stanford (2007)
 
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1977Hawkeye said:
No, it isn't. It puts you in range, but it's far from a lock. Very few teams have made the dance as an at large with an RPI in the 60's. You really would like to be at least in the 30's or 40's.

You've also gotta remember all the automatic bids, so there are nowhere near 64 spots open.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...rnament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years

Lowest RPI to get an at-large bid:
• 67 - USC (2011)
• 64 - Marquette (2011)
• 63 - North Carolina State (2005), Stanford (2007)
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If we did get to 60ish, it means we finished strong. A team with a ton of underclassmen and one of the best scorers in the country who finished strong after a terrible start is the kind of team that might get in with a 60 rpi. Especially this year where they are trying to get away from rpi.
 
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