This is not good news!!
USA Today: "If COVID-19 follows a pattern set by the 1918 Spanish flu, the pandemic is likely to last up to two years and return with a vengeance this fall and winter – a second wave worse than the first, according to
a study issued from the University of Minnesota.
"States, territories and tribal health authorities should plan for the worst-case scenario," warns the report out of the university's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, "including no vaccine availability or herd immunity."
"Risk communication messaging from government officials should incorporate the concept that this pandemic will not be over soon and that people need to be prepared for possible periodic resurgences of disease," the authors suggest.
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The study team, headed by Dr. Kristine A. Moore, medical director at the University of Minnesota center, included pandemic experts from Harvard and Tulane universities.
Antibody tests were supposed to help guide reopening plans. They've brought more confusion than clarity amid coronavirus.
In a preface to the report, researchers said they are striving to produce critical and timely information "with straight talk and clarity."
The worst-case scenario – with a major resurgence by year's end – is one of three laid out in the paper.
A second possibility suggests the outbreak this year could be followed by a series of smaller waves into 2021.
And a third scenario, not seen in previous pandemics, would feature a "slow burn" of viral transmission with no clear pattern.
"The virus caught the global community off guard, and its future course is still highly unpredictable," says the report. "There is no crystal ball to tell us what the future holds and what the 'end game' for controlling this pandemic will be."
However, it stresses, a COVID-19 vaccine is not likely to be available until 2021. And, because up to a quarter of those infected may have no symptoms – and others spread the disease for days before feeling ill – historic influenza pandemics provide the best model."
