After reading that article, I've got a sneaking suspicion that lady is gunna get away with murder. She spikes her husband's drink with a lethal dose, drinks a tiny but herself, pukes it up, and blames the president. I'm not even joking, they really need to investigate that lady. I know its foolish in this day and age to say say "no one's that stupid". But come on. Is there any way two people together were both that stupid?
Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?
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HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
The math isn’t fairly accurate!! Hell we just started testing and Not all people with symptoms are being tested and told to stay home if sick and self quarantine. Also how long has this actually been running it’s course through the USA and what phase truly are we one right now. Which part of the numbers are off probably, in my opinion all of them!
I agree, good read. His math for the worst-case-scenario in Israel leads to 13,500 deaths (a 33% increase in average yearly mortality). Applying the same math to the US results in about 500,000 deaths. He qualifies that with, "As long as the healthcare system doesn't collapse," appreciating that things could get much worse in that scenario.
I can't remember if I have shared this one yet, but here is an article that talks about the importance of being ultra-cautious in uncertain situations such as this where the end result could potentially be catastrophic. It is from authors you would probably generally align with (libertarian views, very distrustful of the academic sector within which they reside). They feel that trying to make "evidence-based" decisions in situations where we are basically devoid of evidence is likely to lead to disaster eventually. I don't think this one is situation that is going to get us; as the article you linked indicates, data is starting to indicate that it might not be as bad as feared. But if you wait until you have conclusive evidence that something is without a shadow of a doubt really bad before you act, you are too late.
Thanks for continuing to read and share, it is interesting to see all sides of this.
That quote was specifically about the ultimate mortality rate, and saying that Trump's original estimate of "less than 1%" will likely be correct.
The Spanish Flu epidemic in 1918 killed more Americans than both World Wars, the Korean War, and the Vietnam war combined.
That is what is trying to be avoided. Our country seems to have been woefully underprepared. I hope the virus will not be as bad as everyone feared. Keep healthcare afloat, hope for slow mutation rate, and hopefully this will just represent a bad flu season (50,000 deaths). But with the exponential rises in deaths we are currently seeing, it is hard to know just where this will end up:
Pretty early for exclamation points. One thing they do know fairly well is how long it's been here. They are off a month at most on that one. They also know with extreme certainty the minimum number of people who have it. If you just use the minimum number (we all know its WAY higher) compared to how long it's been here (first case in US 2 months ago and first case ever 3 months ago) it shows without a doubt that this virus spreads like crazy.
Have you read about how bad it's getting in New York? The hospitals there are going to be just as bad as Italy. It's still not known exactly how bad this will end up, but literally every single government is going to extreme measures to stop it. At some point, when you disagree with every expert on something, you have to start questioning if you're wrong. I assume you are a guy who is sick of hearing about this stuff so you don't even pay attention to it. Am I right?
SteveGarvey1
Well-Known Member
Unless you have better credentials than he does, I think I'm going to go with what he says over you.
SteveGarvey1
Well-Known Member
Only 345 new cases of Corona in the US in last 24 hours, a way lower rate than previously. Too early to say though if it's a trend.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
I knew their sales were off because of association, but only 345 cases of Corona beer manufactured in this country in 24 hours is definitely reaching a nadir.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Based on what is happening locally, the numbers aren’t right. They just aren’t testing the onslaught.
Locally, they send you to triage and evaluate. Next rule out everything else. Then if bad send you to ER. Most they are sending home in worse condition that in normal circumstances saying you’d be less miserable at home. All these never tested. Only tests are for the critically ill. My friend could barely talk on the phone and he was deemed OK to go home. He and wife came down w it at same time. It was more of a shortness of breath than mucous type breathing.
They said he had it, but they weren’t testing him as they didn’t have enough tests.
The ER was a zoo.
We won’t know the real scope for a while.
That's 8280 coronsa tho.
I saw a stat where they are pretty much only testing people they think have it and 90% are still coming back negative.
EstronHawkKing
Well-Known Member
Prince Charles who is 71 has the virus and has mild symptoms so far.
Chickenlounge
Well-Known Member
Just in case you happen to live in the chicagoland area and can't find hand sanitizer, you're in luck!
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200324-quzticak5ra2hcrpfoo5e37bsi-story.html
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coro...0200324-quzticak5ra2hcrpfoo5e37bsi-story.html
Or maybe in the autumn when flu starts to hit.
We have no idea and that is the problem. Most problems from nature like floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards come and go in a fairly short time, create their damage, then we clean them up and we know how to work through them.
We do not know if this virus will mutate, be more virulent, or become non-virulent. As it is right now NY state and city are doubling every 2-3 days and the population is the fuel. There are 25,000 cases in NY and the fuel is what 25 million or more. It very likely will take more time than a hurricane to go through us.
EstronHawkKing
Well-Known Member
I have heard multiple times it will be 12 -18 months to get a vaccine for this virus. They have to test it first to make sure it doesn't turn us into flesh eating zombies
GoHawks12345
Well-Known Member
Trump's job isn't to throw out optimistic predictions.
It is to direct the federal response. Because it is the efforts of hospitals and governments that will determine what that percentages will be.
Of course, but the quote about Trump being right and WHO being wrong was specifically about the mortality rate prediction. That was chosen as a click-bait headline, but the message of the article is NOT that Trump has nailed the approach to this crisis and the WHO is full of shit.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
I suffered from the Corona virus more than once n college.
But i haven't drank one of those in decades.
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