The California governor said they he thinks 56% of their population would contract the disease if they didn't lock down.
Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?
- Thread starter EstronHawkKing
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EstronHawkKing
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Yeah, the higher population states and cities could be in trouble
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
I wonder why it's 56 and not 52 or 61. Lmao. These fuckers are just pulling numbers out of their asses.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924857920300972
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0924857920300972
The last sentence is the BS in that one. Once again, this virus is brand new and just started spreading a couple months ago.
Well technically they are using a calculation based on numbers they pulled out of their ass. One thing you gotta remember tho is the people who pull those numbers out of their asses are really smart people who specialize in that field.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
Not really.
Not really what? The WHO has a shit ton of people who all know everything humans know about how viruses spread. You gotta assume they have a better understanding about what's going on than you or I.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
That's the problem. The vast majority of people don't do their own research and simply trust whatever they're told. That's your choice. I choose a different path in life. Stay in your safety bubble if it makes life easier for you. Good night.
There is no researching to do unless you are in a lab. What you're doing isnt research. You are reading different crap on the internet and choosing what to believe. And don't confuse what I'm saying. I don't think they know without a doubt all these numbers are accurate. But I do know without a doubt that they are the most qualified to make an educated guess. It's like NASA saying how far away a star is. In my mind there is no way its 100% correct if I were to drop a tape measure on it. But I know they can guess a hell of a lot closer than I can.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
On one hand, you admit that you don't know a damn thing, so you'll just trust what the "experts" tell you, but on the other hand, you think you have a fucking clue what research is. You can't play dumb and smart at the same time. Why don't you just find someone else to argue with. For F's sake.
I need to I guess because you're struggling bad. I know nothing about studying viruses. But I do know that people who are in a certain field of study know a lot more about that topic than anyone else. That goes ten fold for people that are at the top of the line in their field of study like the WHO. Next you might argue with me that I shouldn't just assume an NBA player knows a lot about playing basketball.
And speaking of for fucks sake. I've already said i know those numbers are just educated guesses, yet you are still going down the path of "you just blindly believe everything you're told". I'm pretty sure everyone knows what an educated guess is. It's not something you just assume is 100% accurate. But I guess I'm just crazy for believing that the top people in the world know more about random bloggers who get paid by getting clicks. But you can't even spot blatant manipulated numbers so I'm not sure why I'm even bothering.
HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
NO way 25 Million California’s will get this virus. That’s straight up laughable!!!!!!
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We did that for a birthday today (Panchero's!). Was our first of 2 quarantine birthdays (hoping that 3rd Birthday in June is free and clear, but we shall see).
But S. Korea has extensive testing (have tested well over 300,000, have the capability to test up to 20,000 per day) and tracking (they rapidly instituted mobile device tracking on known infections, which violated privacy laws, but was rationalized due to the national emergency).
There are probably fewer S. Korean tksiriuses trying to convince everyone that this is all a bunch of bullshit since they already went through this with 02/03 SARS. If you read what is happening in that country, it is not like it's business as usual. They are taking strong measures, it is just that many of their measures are voluntary and being adhered to by their populace.
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That article used data as of March 2. Since that time, and additional 8,000 have died. So that was 4,000 deaths in the first 2 months after China alerted WHO of an outbreak of a novel strain of Coronavirus. And that is 8,000 additional deaths in the last 3 weeks.
Your research seems to consist of looking for information that supports your pre-determined opinion, while completely ignoring the consensus opinion of epidemiologists from around the world.
As for the "56% of Californians getting COVID-19", that is not pulled from thin air. It is the result of their models. Below I have linked a recent review article on mathematical modeling of pandemics:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5348083/
The models clearly have a ton of uncertainty in them. I am sure 56% represented the most likely outcome, but the 95% confidence interval is likely something like 10-90%. Note the huge confidence intervals on trying to forecast epidemic growth from the modeling article linked above:
When the growth rate is teetering between exponential growth and sub-exponential growth, the actual result could be massively different from the model, and the model outcome reflects this. It is irresponsible to state "56%" without explaining the variance of the model result. However, I suppose the governor thought saying "56% if we don't take action" sounded definitive and was more likely to get people to listen.
He probably worried that saying, "this could result in 10% of people getting COVID-19, or maybe 90%, but the most likely outcome is 56% if we don't do anything." would make the populace say, "These scientists have no idea what they are talking about, they can't narrow this down more than 10-90%? This is a crock of shit, I am going to ignore everything they say."
The funny thing is that you are arguing from a point of view of total ignorance. Without wide US testing of people in the millions and millions your logic does not have a leg to stand on.
Whereas from China, Italy, and the US in hotspots the epidemiologists do have some facts which iirc say that one infected person will infect 1.5 to 2 people. In the US the infection curve showed a very flat, slightly increasing rate from Jan. 21 to Mar 14 at which time there were about 2000 cases. Then boom, in 7 days the number of known cases was 10,000 by yesterday due to spread and a slight increase testing. Which means at a doubling rate of every 4 days or so then by Mar 25 the number might be 20,000 in the US then 40,000 then 80,000.
With the low amount of testing in this country experts think the "real" infection numbers are about 10 times what we know now.
So finally, yes there are many other coronaviruses, noroviruses, RSV etc that cause the common cold and other respiratory illnesses. But the difference is that those illnesses are COMMON viruses (and many in the population have already had them and may not get sick by them again) and they are spread out over the year and do not often threaten to swamp the healthcare system. If the covid 19 novel virus was left unchecked we have seen in China and Italy that there will not be enough ventilators etc and people might needlessly die.
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