Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?
- Thread starter EstronHawkKing
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HawkPrdatr40
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Your surprised? You do realize that more Countries are now testing right? Furthermore the total number of people Who are actually infected pales in comparison to what’s being reported. For most people the symptoms are so mild so I’m guessing broadly that anywhere from 10X to 50X either have it or already had it!! How many people seriously thought they just had flu until Feb 25th that actually have Covid19
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I am not surprised and I didnt say I was surprised. Just restating recent data.
And I agree as I think the probably actual numbers of infected is in the millions based on 10 times the number per experts. If you have read any of my posts in this thread you probably get the idea that I think this could spread wildly without any containment measures.
I hope China can keep it contained and I hope India doesnt get any hotspots and large numbers. Italy has always had a lot of tourism and they do have a big economy so travel into the country was large. Their northern regions with fashion and textiles etc probably lead to a lot of buyers etc going into and out of that region from the explanations I heard.
It took about 4-5 days for the 3rd 100,000 cases.
Some basic exponential growth math (this obviously isn't how COVID-19 is currently or will play out, but this illustrates the realities of exponential growth):
If on Day 0 one person in the world has a disease, and every day the number of people that had the disease doubled (i.e. that person infects one other), then on day 1 we would have 2 infected people. On day 3 we would have 4 infected people.
It would take until day 26 for 1% of the world to be infected. It would take another 7 days for the entire world to be infected.
Things seem fine, until they are not.
If on Day 0 one person in the world has a disease, and every day the number of people that had the disease doubled (i.e. that person infects one other), then on day 1 we would have 2 infected people. On day 3 we would have 4 infected people.
It would take until day 26 for 1% of the world to be infected. It would take another 7 days for the entire world to be infected.
Things seem fine, until they are not.
I am really not an alarmist on this issue. I think the world will be fine, as long as we accept the reality of the situation.
Likewise, I am not alarmist on the economical impacts. Things will be harsh in the short-term, but people/companies will adapt, new market opportunities will emerge, processes will be streamlined, and when this is all over, we will be more resilient. Not sure why some so readily dismiss the health crisis as sensationalism, but so readily accept the (long-term) economic crisis as absolute fact. Pandemics and global economy are both very complex, dynamic systems, and anyone who believes they can accurately predict how either will come out is fooling themselves.
Likewise, I am not alarmist on the economical impacts. Things will be harsh in the short-term, but people/companies will adapt, new market opportunities will emerge, processes will be streamlined, and when this is all over, we will be more resilient. Not sure why some so readily dismiss the health crisis as sensationalism, but so readily accept the (long-term) economic crisis as absolute fact. Pandemics and global economy are both very complex, dynamic systems, and anyone who believes they can accurately predict how either will come out is fooling themselves.
HawkGold
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Fine? About the virus, we'll see. Goldman yesterday forecast a 9% gdp reduction 1st quarter and 24% 2nd. Not likely that low
EstronHawkKing
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Come to the Hy Vee where I live in E. Iowa, it's been jammed packed. I have been to two of them this week, every isle is full of people and low on food.
EstronHawkKing
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Iran has close to 22,000 cases of the virus, and of course they are saying the United States created this virus. Last time I heard it came from China.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
I stocked up on some food (not a lot) prior to the IL announcement. You don't want to shop when it is a zoo at the stores. Sam's really backs up at the door as they still want to make sure you aren't stealing.
Your last post mocked the idea of a bunch of people getting it and this one says you think it has already happened.
So you are saying it's not a good idea to compare an entire years worth of deaths of a virus that has already happened to the first few months of a brand new one? Especially one that takes a few weeks to kill people? A few weeks is a lot pretty big percentage of time for a virus that has only been around for a few months. Meaning there are a lot of people who have already contracted the disease who haven't died yet.
After 3 months of data, the WHO has a pretty good guess as to how many people it will spread to and what percentage of people will die from it.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
In the end, you may be right or you may be wrong. Fact is neither one of you know. If you are wrong, you look like an ignorant ass. If you are right, there is nothing you can do about it.
The situation is somewhere between no big deal and a huge over reaction to millions up to 10x or more than the worst flu. The truth will likely be in between.
We do know in some areas, that hospitals are overwhelmed, including NYC. Sounds like Louisiana is quietly not doing very well. We know that Seattle is getting a hospital ship. We can see what is going on in Italy. We saw China where who knows what is really going on.
Why is the economy being smashed by maybe an overreaction? Again, it's something from no big deal or honest mistake, to something sinister. Either way we can't stop it individuallly.
I would expect many countries to take precautions. If you've ever been to a developing nation or a large impoverished city, you will understand the potential devastation and how fast it will go.....
Italy is a modern country. Look what is occurring. Under regular flu, hospitals don't get overrun. Locally we had a 17 yo die in early Jan from the regular flu that was a healthy kid prior.
On here we range from those in the over reaction camp to those who are taking it seriously. Discussion on this is healthy as long as grace is shown.
It would be interesting to know everyone's real opinion about what is going on, why it is going on, what happened, and so on, in a respectful manner.
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