2 weeks ago I made a "wait 2 more weeks" post. There were 34,000 deaths. Now there are 61,000. 11,000 more than I got called a doomsdayer for predicting. The good news is it definitely peaked.
MY ANSWERS IN BOLD CAPS: IT SEEMS TO HAVE PEAKED BUT AS I MENTIONED 3-4 WEEKS AGO IS WHETHER IT WILL PLATEAU AT FAIRLY HIGH NEW CASES AND DEATHS PER DAY OR KEEP GOING DOWN.
THE ANSWER IT HAS PLATEAUED AT A PRETTY HIGH LEVEL PER DAY, NOT GOOD AS YOU SAY/
The bad news is unless something changes soon like a treatment or summer slowing it down, we will probably hit 100,000 by the end of May or shortly after.
I know there are some people here that think social distancing doesn't help. I have no idea how someone can think spending less time around other people doesn't help slow a virus spread, so I won't even address them. As for everyone else that does understand social distancing slows it down, do you think this was worth it? OH MITIGATION WAS WELL WORTH IT. CAN YOU IMAGINE IF WE HAD 500,000
YOU WERE NOT A DOOMS DAYER IN REALITY WERE YOU AS IT IS EASY TO MULTIPLY AVG DEATHS PER DAY (WHEN THEY ARE FAIRLY CONSTANT) BY 30 DAYS TO GET A PROJECTED ANSWER.
60,000 deaths over the last 4 weeks. The next 4-6 weeks will almost certainly see 40,000 more.
What would it be if nothing closed? WITHOUT DOING ANY MITIGATION THE NUMBERS WOULD BE PROBABLY MUCH, MUCH HIGHER AND HERE IS WHY. WE HAVE A MILLION CASES NOW BUT WITH POOR TESTING AND ANTIBODY TEST RESULTS THERE ARE PROBABLY 10 TO 20 MILLION PEOPLE INFECTED IN THE US.
THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WORSE OUTCOMES AND HOTSPOTS IN NYC, NEW ORLEANS, OHIO HAD A BIG SPIKE , FLORIDA AREAS, LA, SEATTLE, CHICAGO. THERE ARE 50+ MILLION PEOPLE JUST IN THOSE AREAS THAT WOULD ALL BE MINGLING, WORKING TOGETHER, ETC.
WITH MUCH LARGER NUMBERS THAT MEANS MUCH WORSE HEALTHCARE COVERAGE WITH SWAMPED HOSPITALS LEADING TO EVEN MORE DEATHS.
THE US WOULD PROBABLY, CONSERVATIVELY HAVE 300,000 TO 450,000 DEATHS RIGHT NOW AND HEADING TOWARDS THE ORIGINAL MODEL NUMBERS OF 1 TO 2.5 MILLION IN A YEAR WITH AS INFECTIOUS AND BAD THIS VIRUS IS. THAT SHOULD NOT BE HARD TO IMAGINE.
Double that? Triple that? MAYBE MORE
I think it was a mistake in hindsight to shut everywhere down at once. I THINK A LOT OF RURAL, LIGHTLY POPULATED AND MUCH SMALLER TOWNS COULD HAVE STAYED OPEN UNTIL THERE WERE SIGNS OF SOME CASES. THE STATE OF WASHINGTON AND THE SEATTLE AREA HAVE GREAT PLANS IN PLACE ALREADY FOR THIS TYPE OF EPIDEMIC. THEY JUMPED ON THEIR OUTBREAK HARD AND KEPT THE PROBLEM TO A MINIMUM THAT WAS MANAGEABLE.
AND ONCE AGAIN I WILL SAY TRUMP AND PENCE DID NOT DO THEIR JOBS AND WERE LATE AND STILL NOT THERE ON TESTING AND MAKING SWABS, ETC SO WE COULD KNOW WHERE PROBLEMS ARE OR WERE. THE STATES CANNOT INCREASE THEIR MONETARY SUPPLY NOR MAKE COMPANIES PUMP OUT GOODS LIKE TESTS AND PPE.
But if we did nothing at all, things would have gotten really bad.
