Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?

[tksirius]

Their mortality rate is higher than other countries in the area that did lock down. However, they have not seen the economic issues yet. Interesting chart below.

It makes me think Fauci was correct in the New England Journal of Medicine where he stated this is basically like a bad flu season. Of course, this came after he stated it was going to be 10 times as bad as the flu. Makes sense that we shouldn't be shutting down everything for a bad flu.

 

[PCHawk]

I stand corrected. Not that much of a difference though. My original point still stands. No lockdown, they should have hundreds of thousands of deaths by now if the doomsdayers' predictions were correct. That's clearly not happening. How can that be explained?

Their population per square mile is extremely similar to Iowa. So how are they doing compared to Iowa? That would be an extremely apples to apples comparison. I don't know the answer. But I did do the leg work on population of Iowa. Its 54.5 compared to 58 for Sweden.

 

[PCHawk]

It makes me think Fauci was correct in the New England Journal of Medicine where he stated this is basically like a bad flu season. Of course, this came after he stated it was going to be 10 times as bad as the flu. Makes sense that we shouldn't be shutting down everything for a bad flu.

I assume you don't believe the mass grave stories coming out of New York?

 

[tksirius]

Their population per square mile is extremely similar to Iowa. So how are they doing compared to Iowa? That would be an extremely apples to apples comparison. I don't know the answer. But I did do the leg work on population of Iowa. Its 54.5 compared to 58 for Sweden.

When was Iowa's first case? Does Iowa have a stay in place order? If so, when did it go into effect?

 

[tksirius]

I assume you don't believe the mass grave stories coming out of New York?

 

[Robowe]

It makes me think Fauci was correct in the New England Journal of Medicine where he stated this is basically like a bad flu season. Of course, this came after he stated it was going to be 10 times as bad as the flu. Makes sense that we shouldn't be shutting down everything for a bad flu.

Isn't the difference is that there is no vaccine for COVID-19 (at this point)? Once that (or some other solution along with better testing) occurs, it will be business as usual. Right?

 

[PCHawk]

Fauci put the fear of God in our governor's and many of them have ground their states to a halt. Birx is just as bad, or worse. Birx suggested we may have to live like this for up to eighteen months, or until the virus disappears, or until we have a vaccine for it.

The virus will not disappear. It's here to stay. But many of us are developing immunity as we speak. There are now stories everyday from California to Illinois to New York of this mysterious two week flu people got last December, that their doctors couldn't quite diagnose. But they got over it.

I heard that too, about the mystery flu. I just don't know how it could be around back then with mild signs of it, then disappear for a couple months completely, then come back and build up like crazy. I'm not saying it's wrong. I just don't get how it could have worked like that.

 

[Northside Hawk]

You are clearly entitled to your opinion on Fauci’s views. You are not entitled to creating your own set of facts. You are correct that I am retired. I have earned the right after 40 years as an educator working to make life better for young people, I pay thousands of dollars in taxes annually and pump thousands more into charities and the broad economy. I am not rich. My first teaching salary was $6500 a year. But I managed my $ well, and I lead a simple lifestyle with hobbies that are not expensive. I have three married children, 7 grandkids that I adore. I am hoping and praying to have a few more years to reap the benefits of a life well lived and appreciated. I hope you have the same opportunities. So, I am not willing to die from this virus, even though some think I have lived long enough and do not deserve to hang around much longer. As Kurt Vonnegut said, “So it goes.” (Cats Cradle). Be well.

Congratulations on a good and productive life lived. But I'm confused on something. What facts am I making up?

I was one of the first on this board to predict the NCAA'S would be cancelled, that Vegas would shut down, that restaurants and movie theaters would shut down, that the country would shut down, that retail stores like Wally World would enforce customer limits, and force extra customers to wait in line outside (six feet apart) once they reached designated capacity.

Those posts are all in this and other threads. I also predicted over two weeks ago that we would have 1,000,000 confirmed cases in this country tops, and 30-50k deaths.

You asked me to read what other posters have written about predictive models and their nature. Why should I, when even medical experts are now revising their predictions more in line with what I have been predicting all along? And where have I been factually wrong in anything I've posted in my exchanges with you?

If my numbers prove to be wrong I will be the first to come public with the fact that I was wrong.

 

[PCHawk]

When was Iowa's first case? Does Iowa have a stay in place order? If so, when did it go into effect?

It doesn't have a mandatory shelter in place. We are doing very close to the same thing tho. No schools, restaurants, bars, travelling. A lot of non essential businesses closed down. I'm not sure on first cases. I might figure it out if someone else doesn't.

 

[tksirius]

Isn't the difference is that there is no vaccine for COVID-19 (at this point)? Once that (or some other solution along with better testing) occurs, it will be business as usual. Right?

It's like 100k that die from the flu every year in the U.S.. I wouldn't say the flu shot's all that effective. Since you brought up the flu vaccine, I would really like to see stats on how many infected/died with COVID-19 had received a prior flu shot. There are data showing that the flu vaccine increases susceptibility to other respiratory infections including coronaviruses.

 

[PCHawk]

Congratulations on a good and productive life lived. But I'm confused on something. What facts am I making up?

I was one of the first on this board to predict the NCAA'S would be cancelled, that Vegas would shut down, that restaurants and movie theaters would shut down, that the country would shut down, that retail stores like Wally World would enforce customer limits, and force extra customers to wait in line outside (six feet apart) once they reached designated capacity.

Those posts are all in this and other threads. I also predicted over two weeks ago that we would have 1,000,000 confirmed cases in this country tops, and 30-50k deaths.

You asked me to read what other posters have written about predictive models and their nature. Why should I, when even medical experts are now revising their predictions more in line with what I have been predicting all along? And where have I been factually wrong in anything I've posted in my exchanges with you?

If my numbers prove to be wrong I will be the first to come public with the fact that I was wrong.

Didn't you predict 10,000-25000 at one point?

 

[tksirius]

Those posts are all in this and other threads. I also predicted over two weeks ago that we would have 1,000,000 confirmed cases in this country tops, and 30-50k deaths.

That's still a lot better than a typical flu season. I bet the flu death numbers will be lower this season since it's pretty much been proven now that COVID deaths are being recorded without confirmation of victims even having the disease.

 

[HawkGold]

That's still a lot better than a typical flu season. I bet the flu death numbers will be lower this season since it's pretty much been proven now that COVID deaths are being recorded without confirmation of victims even having the disease.

If you contend your politicians like this forum you might actually get somewhere.

 

[PCHawk]

That's still a lot better than a typical flu season. I bet the flu death numbers will be lower this season since it's pretty much been proven now that COVID deaths are being recorded without confirmation of victims even having the disease.

I agree that flu deaths will be lover. Both for the reason you said and also old people that might have died from the flu later already died from COVID earlier. It would be cool if someone made a chart of last year's flu deaths starting January 1st and doing a count every day all year. Maybe seeing those numbers would show guys like me how unbad this is or ahow guys like you how much worse it is. I'd be interested to see it.

 

[Robowe]

It's like 100k that die from the flu every year in the U.S.. I wouldn't say the flu shot's all that effective. Since you brought up the flu vaccine, I would really like to see stats on how many infected/died with COVID-19 had received a prior flu shot. There are data showing that the flu vaccine increases susceptibility to other respiratory infections including coronaviruses.

Fair point. I don't agree that the flu vaccine is not effective, but I understand the point of view. I get the shot every year (have to for work - but I would anyway) but my wife doesn't (she doesn't like needles or shots) and she works with kids every day. I don't agree with her, but I am OK with it because each individual can make their own choice.

I agree with the stats you would like to see on COVID-19 patients who received a flu shot prior. Heck, I would like to see the stats on folks diagnosed with the normal flu who have received a flu shot prior. I know there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that some folks think the vaccine may have caused their illness subsequent to the shot. Again, I don't think that really happens that often, but I don't argue with anyone who says it happened to them.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Didn't you predict 10,000-25000 at one point?

If I did and either I hedged from it or it gets surpassed I will admit I was wrong and that my prediction was off.

Since I believe I remember that post without going back and looking it up I will have to say you were correct.

We are right smack in the middle of that range as I type this.

 

[tksirius]

Apparently, Texas is going to open up soon. I wish Wyoming would do it. I'm still pissed about that. Nobody fucking lives in Wyoming!

 

[Robowe]

Just got home and did some recon. Dubuque County reported it's first confirmed case on March 17. Since that time, Dubuque County, and the six counties that border it in three states, have confirmed a total of 65 cases. Out of a population base of probably 250,000.

And yet.....

• Schools and colleges remain cancelled
• All school and college extra curricular activities are on hold
• Graduation ceremonies, and graduation parties, are in jeopardy
• Weddings are hold
• Restaurants, churches, movie theaters, and many businesses remain closed
• Good Friday fish fries were cancelled at all supper clubs and Catholic churches. For most churches, the good Friday fish fry is topped only by the annual church picnic as a revenue generator.
• Many of our friends and neighbors are furloughed or looking for work.

All the local ball diamonds and high school football fields in our county turned their lights on at dusk tonight. People are gathering at them. I drove by our local ball diamonds where our local summer leisure services coordinators were showing support. Most of them are school teachers and are not working at the present time.

Again, 65 confirmed cases in a seven county area in twenty four days. Your beloved Dr. Fauci can shove it right up his hind quarters.

I guess I am OK with an overreaction at first to get everyone's attention. I was in Florida when this started and there wasn't much of a reaction at first. Their numbers spiked and they reacted.

Soon will be the time that we will need to take a look and see if the numbers will allow businesses and schools (and the rest of what you mentioned) can start to return to normal. I am not a doomsdayer (sp?), but I do think if we try to return to normal too soon (not knowing what that means), it will be harder to react the 2nd time.

 

[HawkGold]

This is worse than getting counted in the 2000 election.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...nursing-homes-federal-government-isn-n1181026

 

[Northside Hawk]

Apparently, Texas is going to open up soon. I wish Wyoming would do it. I'm still pissed about that. Nobody fucking lives in Wyoming!

Florida is talking about reopening schools soon, even if it's just for two weeks, because they see the value in reconnecting students with teachers and with each other again .