Will the Big 1G Look South?

SpecialKHawk said:
I understand the opposition but reality is it is what it is.... times are changing.

Now would you feel that way if the Pac 12 goes to 16, SEC to 16, ACC to 16 and the Big 12 to 16 and the B1G stays at 12. What do you think will happen long-term to our future TV contracts, bowl invites and overall competitiveness? Again, stay put and we will be left behind. Under that scenario what if an Ohio St or Michigan is poached in the process however hypothetical? Do you think the big dogs of our conference are going to be happy being in a less prestigious conference compared to the other super conferences? You see everyone basis things off the past but the future could be drastically different if the B1G is not on the forefront (like it always is... think of the addition of Penn St at the time which made an odd number of 11 -> why do that?)
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I absolutely feel the Big Ten can remain competitive as a 12 team league regardless of what everyone else does. There is a finite limit to tv contracts and the more teams you add the more that $ gets divided up. Again the Big Ten has the largest fan base in the country, so there will always be tons of subscribers willing to pay for the BTN. If the SEC goes to 14 I don't think the Big Ten will react. If the Pac 12 and ACC also increase, then the Big Ten might act. I'm not saying it won't happen, I just hope it doesn't. You are calling it a foregone conclusion. As we have seen in the past year, these situations are amazingly fluid, so to try to predict anything right now is just pure speculation.

If the Big Ten signed a $300 million dollar tv deal (which is a very real possibility in the near future), each team would get $25 million. A 16 team SEC would have to get a $400 million dollar deal just to equal what the Big Ten gets per team. That's a 33% premium for just 4 more teams. Maybe ESPN would give it to them, but I doubt much more. So the reality is they aren't any further ahead and they have completely sacrificed the tradition of the league.
 
treychase said:
$7M is the current payout to each B1G member from the BTN, 2010 numbers.

If the BTN goes NATIONAL, same as ESPN, TNT, Food Network, whatever, they will up their carriage/subscriber fees, which currently average .36cents.
Historically those fees triple for networks.

So lets keep it at average .36cents times 3 = $1.08 per subscriber.

At $1.08 that $7M suddenly is $21M/school per yr.

Second part is the number of all tv subscribers...
which is currently sitting around 1/4 -1/3 of tv households.
A national network garners fees from ALL subscribers. We all pay for espn, tnt, tbs, etc..people just don't realize it.

Therefore, conservatively I'll double the number of subscribers and we have...

a tripling of subscriber fees and a doubling of subscribers...

so if we triple the current $7M we get $21M; then you double the subscribers to get $42M.

This is from Day 1, it will continue to grow.
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Nice work...... How do we know that the B1G does not have a long-term plan to consider the possibility of going national if opportunities present themselves -> possibly joining alliances with other large superconferences and succeeding from the NCAA in the process. What I'm trying to say is their may be an underlying struggle for overall power between several forces; SEC, B1G, Pac12, ESPN, Fox, Texas, etc... joint partnerships maybe formed. If one group controls the landscape of the second most popular sport to the NFL I would say that would be worth something. Not saying it's going to happen but we can't possibly know the leveraging and deal-making that takes place behind the scenes.
 
treychase said:
$7M is the current payout to each B1G member from the BTN, 2010 numbers.

If the BTN goes NATIONAL, same as ESPN, TNT, Food Network, whatever, they will up their carriage/subscriber fees, which currently average .36cents.
Historically those fees triple for networks.

So lets keep it at average .36cents times 3 = $1.08 per subscriber.

At $1.08 that $7M suddenly is $21M/school per yr.

Second part is the number of all tv subscribers...
which is currently sitting around 1/4 -1/3 of tv households.
A national network garners fees from ALL subscribers. We all pay for espn, tnt, tbs, etc..people just don't realize it.

Therefore, conservatively I'll double the number of subscribers and we have...

a tripling of subscriber fees and a doubling of subscribers...

so if we triple the current $7M we get $21M; then you double the subscribers to get $42M.

This is from Day 1, it will continue to grow.
Click to expand...

First of all, the B1G already reportedly requires cable companies in the B1G footprint to pay $1.10 per sub for the BTN. To triple that would be $3.30 per sub. NOT GONNA HAPPEN! ESPN doesn't even command that price and they are ESPN! Then you expect areas outside the B1G footprint to fork out $1.08 per subscriber. Again, NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

I follow the TV side of things very closely and have read just about every article ever written on sports TV, subscriber costs, etc. in the past couple of years. You will not see what you wrote above happen. The BTN by definition is a regional network and will not become a national network.
 
SpecialKHawk said:
Nice work...... How do we know that the B1G does not have a long-term plan to consider the possibility of going national if opportunities present themselves -> possibly joining alliances with other large superconferences and succeeding from the NCAA in the process. What I'm trying to say is their may be an underlying struggle for overall power between several forces; SEC, B1G, Pac12, ESPN, Fox, Texas, etc... joint partnerships maybe formed. If one group controls the landscape of the second most popular sport to the NFL I would say that would be worth something. Not saying it's going to happen but we can't possibly know the leveraging and deal-making that takes place behind the scenes.
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Great point.
I remember when the first round of expansion started, I mentioned to a friend that I thought it was concievable that the B1G & Pac10 would work together due to their longstanding relationships and mutual interests(Rose Bowl in particular).

I think you have a very good point & in fact may be what we see happen, however, I think the B1G is going to be very hesitant to "share" what they've built.
If they can run it, and reap the rewards then I think it definetly is a strong possibility
 
SpecialKHawk said:
You can jump and down all you want about not expanding but it is going to happen as soon as the next move is made. Count on it. By standing pat while other super conferences are being formed opens the B1G up to being poached down-the-line and lessons it's long-term financial leverage. The BIGGEST issue long-term with the B1G is it's membership exists in the 'Rust Belt' of the United States. There's a geographic reason why the SEC has continued to become stronger and stronger over time.

If you listened carefully to Delaney's comments last year he dropped several notes about (I'm paraphrasing) taking a look to more populated areas outside of the typical B1G footprint noting the population shift. I would bet money as forward-thinking as the B1G is that Delaney has targeted 4 areas; Texas, Upper East Coast(N/Y+NJ), Maryland/DC area & Atlanta (ie Georgia Tech). This is one of principle reasons why the division names are what they are and have no 'geographical' indicators. This is because B1G will be adding and the division names lend themselves to moving teams around. The names were mocked but are brilliant in hind-sight -> typical Delaney & B1G forward thinking.

Oklahoma would be a huge long-shot besides their football prestige. They are so poorly rated academically and their market size is not anything to brag about. They thrive in today's world due in large part to Texas. Oklahoma is in a tough-tough position if things fall apart. Their life is going to be much more difficult than it is now.
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Well, huge expansion by several conferences was supposedly going to happen last year...but it didn't.
 
TecmoSuperHawk said:
First of all, the B1G already reportedly requires cable companies in the B1G footprint to pay $1.10 per sub for the BTN. To triple that would be $3.30 per sub. NOT GONNA HAPPEN! ESPN doesn't even command that price and they are ESPN! Then you expect areas outside the B1G footprint to fork out $1.08 per subscriber. Again, NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

I follow the TV side of things very closely and have read just about every article ever written on sports TV, subscriber costs, etc. in the past couple of years. You will not see what you wrote above happen. The BTN by definition is a regional network and will not become a national network.
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+1 exactly.
 
83Hawk said:
Well, huge expansion by several conferences was supposedly going to happen last year...but it didn't.
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OK... that's scientific as well. It didn't last year. Yet here we may sit in another week or two and in the last 12-14 months we will have had 5 teams already moved; Colorado, Utah, Nebraska, Florida State & Texas A&M. Yes, I guess you are right. This will not conintue and super-conferences will not be formed as was predicted even though two conferences moved to 12 and one to 14. I guess that's not a trend.
 
Oh yes... no more movement or continual push to super-conferences should be expected with Texas's AD - Dodds quote on the A&M move. Read this very carefully....

“They’ve got to do what’s best for them,” Dodds said of the Aggies. “We’re going to look at every option we’ve got, and we’re going to end up in a good place. That’s what we do. We’re good at that.”
 
Oh yes... this came out of our coache's mouth -> read carefully. Everyone on the inside knows what's coming but we have fans who dismiss this???

Q. Yesterday the Big 10 announced plans to start a nine game schedule. Can you comment on your reaction to that news?

COACH FERENTZ: Two things: It’s not a long ways off. It’s a real long ways off. Six years is like a lifetime in football. By that time we may have 20 teams in our conference the way college football’s going right now, so I’m not too worried about it.
 
SpecialKHawk said:
Oh yes... this came out of our coache's mouth -> read carefully. Everyone on the inside knows what's coming but we have fans who dismiss this???

Q. Yesterday the Big 10 announced plans to start a nine game schedule. Can you comment on your reaction to that news?

COACH FERENTZ: Two things: It’s not a long ways off. It’s a real long ways off. Six years is like a lifetime in football. By that time we may have 20 teams in our conference the way college football’s going right now, so I’m not too worried about it.
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#1 why do you keep saying "oh yes". #2 you are reading WAAAAAAAYYYYY to much into Ferentz's comments. That was obviously completely tongue in cheek. #3 Dodd's could be saying they will be fine in what is left of the Big 12, again you are reading what you want to read. #4 Now you are talking about a conspiracy and everyone is in on it but the fans. Ok.
 
DwayneTwill said:
THE BIG TEN IS DEFINITELY GOING TO 20 TEAMS!! KF ANN0UNCED iT!!!!
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so in other words you can't read between the lines -> a little tounge in check with KF. He listed 20 for sarcasim. If 16 is not a likely possibility in the short-term he would have used a number like 14 or 16. But no matter how you take it he noted the way CFB is going.
 
TecmoSuperHawk said:
First of all, the B1G already reportedly requires cable companies in the B1G footprint to pay $1.10 per sub for the BTN. To triple that would be $3.30 per sub. NOT GONNA HAPPEN! ESPN doesn't even command that price and they are ESPN! Then you expect areas outside the B1G footprint to fork out $1.08 per subscriber. Again, NOT GONNA HAPPEN!

I follow the TV side of things very closely and have read just about every article ever written on sports TV, subscriber costs, etc. in the past couple of years. You will not see what you wrote above happen. The BTN by definition is a regional network and will not become a national network.
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you just don't understand.
The B1G gets 1.10 IN MARKET & like .10 out of market.

you pay over $4 for espn you just don't realize it
here's a list genius...List Of Subscriber Fees Shows What You Pay For Channels You Hate - The Consumerist

You know what,
nevermind, not worth my time.
 
bud2380 said:
#1 why do you keep saying "oh yes". #2 you are reading WAAAAAAAYYYYY to much into Ferentz's comments. That was obviously completely tongue in cheek. #3 Dodd's could be saying they will be fine in what is left of the Big 12, again you are reading what you want to read. #4 Now you are talking about a conspiracy and everyone is in on it but the fans. Ok.
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No I'm not suggesting a conspiracy... that would involve a cover-up. I'm pointing to a reality that is being acknowledged across CFB by many sources. We've already had 3 teams on the move, with a possibility of two more in the next couple of weeks. I'll put my money down on 4 16 team conferences within 3-4 years, the B1G begin one of them.
 
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