Wisconsin does have a slower style tho so that would keep the spread down a bit. I think your guess is pretty close tho.
Predict the B1G final standings - simulator
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Wisconsin does have a slower style tho so that would keep the spread down a bit. I think your guess is pretty close tho.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Lucky if I get the correct words on this phone...Formatting is key, see below
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I still see a path to the double bye. I’m not saying it’s going to happen but it’s certainly possible.
1 - We have to win out.
2 - Michigan has to lose 3 more games...at MN, MSU, NE, at MD and at MSU.
Those 3 road games are all tough.
If this happens Maryland most likely finishes 15-5 and 3rd. Iowa ties with Michigan and possibly Wisconsin at 14-6. We win the tiebreaker in a 3 way tie or a 2 way tie with Michigan. So I’m pulling for Minnesota tomorrow night.
1 - We have to win out.
2 - Michigan has to lose 3 more games...at MN, MSU, NE, at MD and at MSU.
Those 3 road games are all tough.
If this happens Maryland most likely finishes 15-5 and 3rd. Iowa ties with Michigan and possibly Wisconsin at 14-6. We win the tiebreaker in a 3 way tie or a 2 way tie with Michigan. So I’m pulling for Minnesota tomorrow night.
Nice work.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
I've conceeded the double bye after last night's loss. I'd rather keep Minnesota as far behind us as possible. Even if Michigan collapses were still a game behind both Maryland and Wisconsin, they own both tiebreakers, and they have favorable remaining schedules.
Our upcoming game @OSU is also looming larger and larger. But when was the last time an Iowa team has won four out of their last five on the road? I don't care who those wins are against.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
If we win out we’re tied with Wisconsin. If Michigan loses those 3 road games we’re tied with them. We own the tiebreaker if it’s us and MI. We own the tiebreaker if it’s us, WI and MI. I’m not sure what you’re saying here but it’s not accurate.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
If we tie with Wisconsin and split the head to head with them what's the criteria for breaking that tie? They have a win over Maryland that we don't. We both have played Purdue once and lost. We have two losses to Sparty to their one.
If you know of another tiebreaker criteria that I don't, that's what you would have to explain. If it exists and I'm not acknowledging it than I apologise
I'll go 12-8 in the B1G, 23-8 overall. I don't know which games will be W's and which will be L's. Iowa has to guard against fatigue because we are late in the season and Iowa has had 3 straight nail-biters along with the emotional highs and lows of those games. They have no true bad losses and have struggled against the top of the conference so I'd guess they lose to Wisconsin but I wouldn't be shocked if a Rutgers or Nebraska clips Iowa at the end too.
Its head to head record vs teams you're tied with. We would be 2-1 vs Wisconsin and Michigan. We would also have the tie breaker against just Wisconsin if Michigan finishes ahead of MSU.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
Yikes! That tiebreaker with Wisconsin would not be for fourth place if Michigan finishes ahead of MSU. It would be for fifth. So we're screwed either way. Unless Maryland collapses.
Bottom line. We really needed to talk care of business against Maryland and we didn't.
We won't be screwed either way if it's a 3 way tie. It's also possible for Wisconsin to lose one more game and us in a 2 way tie with Michigan for 4th. Odds are extremely unlikely we end up with the 4 tho qt this point.
eveningnewsteam
Well-Known Member
More than likely Iowa will be the 6. Which is fine with me, that game starts around 8pm
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
PC answered all of this.
Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
For your scenario to play out Michigan will have to lose three times and Wisconsin two (one in addition to us)
It could happen, but only if this turns into a wild finish. After the Maryland loss, I would be more concerned about Minnesota and Ohio State sneaking up behind us. Ohio State is righting their ship and we go there next week. One more time, I am more concerned about what's behind us than what's ahead of us. Must win tomorrow and handle Ohio State. A Minnesota loss tonight vs Michigan wouldn't hurt either. Ohio State does have a tough finish which may help us.
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Northside Hawk
Well-Known Member
It would give us a chance to exorcize some demons. In the combined Lick/Fran era our record on Thursday in the conference tournament is 1-10.
I am also more concerned with the teams behind us now. It's funny how rooting interests change throughout the year. Wisconsin plays at Ohio State the last game of the year. Hopefully we will be rooting for Wisconsin to lose that game.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I’m not the least bit worried about the teams behind us. These doomsday scenarios being discussed probably land us a BTT 6 seed and an NCAA 7 seed. It’s highly unlikely to happen unless someone gets hurt.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
Michigan has to lose 3 times. Wisconsin has to lose to us. That’s it. We own the tiebreaker.
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
PC & North...Think about what you’re saying and look at the schedules. Michigan is at Minnesota tonight. If Michigan loses they are 2 losses from tying us. If they win Minnesota is 3 back in the loss column.
Ohio State is at Maryland this weekend. If Maryland loses they only have to lose 1 more for us to pass them. If they win Ohio State is 3 back in the loss column.
So you can’t have it both ways. Either Iowa is in a position to start dreaming of a 4 seed by Monday. Or Iowa can forget about finishing worse than 6th. To drop as low as 6th...with a 3 game lead...we would have to lose 3 of our remaining 5 games. That means going 6-4 in our last 10. We haven’t been worse than 7-3 in any 10 game stretch all season.
The teams behind us don’t matter IMO. I want them all to start winning because it helps us if we handle our business.
Ohio State is at Maryland this weekend. If Maryland loses they only have to lose 1 more for us to pass them. If they win Ohio State is 3 back in the loss column.
So you can’t have it both ways. Either Iowa is in a position to start dreaming of a 4 seed by Monday. Or Iowa can forget about finishing worse than 6th. To drop as low as 6th...with a 3 game lead...we would have to lose 3 of our remaining 5 games. That means going 6-4 in our last 10. We haven’t been worse than 7-3 in any 10 game stretch all season.
The teams behind us don’t matter IMO. I want them all to start winning because it helps us if we handle our business.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
@WindsorHawk Dotcherman tweeted this today "-Stop worrying about what might not happen & focus on what can" - I put you squarely in this camp. Thank you much for sharing your scenarios. They are interesting to consider.
