Predict the B1G final standings - simulator

[Xerxes]

Anyone run this lately? I have Iowa playing the NW vs. RUT winner in our 1st game. I’m hoping it’s Rutgers...nothing to do with revenge or how good they are. I don’t think they have the type of team that will play well back to back with no rest.

I think the loser of Michigan vs. MSU game will be the 3 seed. I’m cheering for MSU this week. They are the 1 or 2 seed if they win out. I would rather play Michigan on Friday. They don’t play the thuggish style we struggle with.

If we get past Friday I don’t care who we play. I just hope we can get over the Thursday/Friday hurdle.

I did but I get Indiana vs Northwestern as the 11/14 game.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I did but I get Indiana vs Northwestern as the 11/14 game.

I think I had IN, PSU and RUT all with the same number of wins and RUT losing the tiebreaker. But who knows. None of those teams want to play Wednesday so this will be an interesting week.

 

[ssckelley]

Anyone run this lately? I have Iowa playing the NW vs. RUT winner in our 1st game. I’m hoping it’s Rutgers...nothing to do with revenge or how good they are. I don’t think they have the type of team that will play well back to back with no rest.

I think the loser of Michigan vs. MSU game will be the 3 seed. I’m cheering for MSU this week. They are the 1 or 2 seed if they win out. I would rather play Michigan on Friday. They don’t play the thuggish style we struggle with.

If we get past Friday I don’t care who we play. I just hope we can get over the Thursday/Friday hurdle.

So we gonna get to 12 wins?

 

[WindsorHawk]

It seems like almost every team in the conference has pulled off a pretty big upset this year. And it seems like the majority of teams have gone through hot and cold spells. Illinois was really hot. Now it’s PSU and RUT...maybe IN. So the tide could shift again by next Wednesday. Iowa getting hot would be nice.

 

[WindsorHawk]

So we gonna get to 12 wins?

It sure looked like it a week ago. But I have to go with 11 if I’m being honest.

We have some things going for us. Wisconsin hasn’t been playing great and we match up well with them. Nebraska doesn’t have enough players and we get them after MSU pounds on them for 40 minutes.

As I said in another thread the magic number is 37...our 3 point percentage for the year. Any of the next 3 games that we hit that number I think we win.

We are due to have a couple hot shooting nights from the perimeter. My best guess...

1-1 70%
2-0 20%
0-2 10%

 

[PCHawk]

Looks like Minnesota is still alive for tying us. I've been rooting against Purdue all year. Finally root for them and they shit the bed.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Looks like Minnesota is still alive for tying us. I've been rooting against Purdue all year. Finally root for them and they shit the bed.

Iowa has to lose to both WI and NE...unlikely. Minnesota has to win at MD...highly unlikely. They are technically alive but barely.

 

[WindsorHawk]

This will be obsolete in 4 days. I have Iowa playing the Rutgers/NW winner and then Michigan. I don’t think either of these 2 are built to play back to back days...good draw either way IMO.

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Penn St beats Rutgers at home...NWestern clobbers tOSU. Madness!!!

 

[PCHawk]

Penn St beats Rutgers at home...NWestern clobbers tOSU. Madness!!!

Just more examples of what's happening to Iowa isnt surprising or rare.

 

[PCHawk]

I put us winning out and Wiscinsin losing out and it had us as the 5 seed beating Wisconsin tiebreaker with record vs #3 Michigan. 70

Also if all that happens and Minnesota beats Maryland, we would finish in a 3 way tie for 4th and get the 6 seed. This is what I'm rooting for.

 

[deanvogs]

 

[hawkdrummer1]

So, it's all about matchups now...which bracket do we draw

 

[WindsorHawk]

Just more examples of what's happening to Iowa isnt surprising or rare.

I’m not even a little bit worried about this team ROS. Here are some numbers.

Season 3% - 36.7

Garza - 30.0
JB - 39.4
JW - 43.9
Moss - 43.3
Baer - 36.6
Kriener- 34.8

Last 4 games...1-3 - 29.3 (best being 31.6)
RUT/OSU/IN/MD

4 Games prior...4-0 - 42.9 (worst being 38.1)
RUT/NW/IN/MI

RUT & IN are in both groups. MI is better than MD. NW isn’t as good as OSU (with their best player).

We have gone cold from 3. When we make our threes we typically win. When we miss our threes we typically lose. And I’m not buying the grabbing, bumping,physical play, etc. arguments. Moss put up a wide open air ball. JB has missed open looks.

I may be the exception but I still think all 6 of those guys are decent to very good 3 point shooters. And I don’t think we are going to shoot 29.3 over the next 4 games. And I’m confident we will be 3-1 or 4-0 if we shoot 42.9 over the next 4.

 

[PCHawk]

I’m not even a little bit worried about this team ROS. Here are some numbers.

Season 3% - 36.7

Garza - 30.0
JB - 39.4
JW - 43.9
Moss - 43.3
Baer - 36.6
Kriener- 34.8

Last 4 games...1-3 - 29.3 (best being 31.6)
RUT/OSU/IN/MD

4 Games prior...4-0 - 42.9 (worst being 38.1)
RUT/NW/IN/MI

RUT & IN are in both groups. MI is better than MD. NW isn’t as good as OSU (with their best player).

We have gone cold from 3. When we make our threes we typically win. When we miss our threes we typically lose. And I’m not buying the grabbing, bumping,physical play, etc. arguments. Moss put up a wide open air ball. JB has missed open looks.

I may be the exception but I still think all 6 of those guys are decent to very good 3 point shooters. And I don’t think we are going to shoot 29.3 over the next 4 games. And I’m confident we will be 3-1 or 4-0 if we shoot 42.9 over the next 4.

Our offense rarely gets decent looks anymore. The shooting percentage is way down due in large part to the shots we're taking. I get that they are missing some open shots too, but it's a lot harder to make an open shot when you've been hounded the whole time than it is to make it after you just shot 3 other open shots.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Our offense rarely gets decent looks anymore. The shooting percentage is way down due in large part to the shots we're taking. I get that they are missing some open shots too, but it's a lot harder to make an open shot when you've been hounded the whole time than it is to make it after you just shot 3 other open shots.

I think that’s due to lazy careless passes which can be corrected.

Kenpom Defensive Efficiency
MI - 3
NW - 19

OSU - 26
MD - 25

All are good. But 4-0 teams are better.

 

[PCHawk]

I think that’s due to lazy careless passes which can be corrected.

Kenpom Defensive Efficiency
MI - 3
NW - 19

OSU - 26
MD - 25

All are good. But 4-0 teams are better.

I think some of it is that pretty much every player is in a slump right now. Garza, Cook, and Moss are lacking confidence right now.

 

[PCHawk]

Only 1/3 of the way through the conference schedule but I couldn't help but look. Right now we are in a 6 way tie for 3rd place and have the 3rd seed on the tournament. 6 teams at 11-9! Also 3 teams at 10-10. That's a frickin log jam.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Only 1/3 of the way through the conference schedule but I couldn't help but look. Right now we are in a 6 way tie for 3rd place and have the 3rd seed on the tournament. 6 teams at 11-9! Also 3 teams at 10-10. That's a frickin log jam.

I changed 3 (I think) games with no idea how the final standings would look. Iowa ended up tied for 2nd at 12-8...got the 3 seed. The only change I made for the Hawks was a win at Indiana...haven’t impressed me.

But you’re right. It’s an absolute logjam. The team(s) that get 2 or 3 road wins will get the BTT byes.

If CJ hadn’t gotten hurt I think we have least 1 more win. But if everyone stays healthy I think we win at least 1 of 3 (MN/PU/IN) on the road.

 

[ssckelley]

Jeez, Northwestern at 1-19!!!

I think if this was to happen the Big Ten would get 10 teams into the NCAA, possibly 11 if Indiana were to make some noise in the BTT. This is insane!