Predict the B1G final standings - simulator

WindsorHawk said:
PC & North...Think about what you’re saying and look at the schedules. Michigan is at Minnesota tonight. If Michigan loses they are 2 losses from tying us. If they win Minnesota is 3 back in the loss column.

Ohio State is at Maryland this weekend. If Maryland loses they only have to lose 1 more for us to pass them. If they win Ohio State is 3 back in the loss column.

So you can’t have it both ways. Either Iowa is in a position to start dreaming of a 4 seed by Monday. Or Iowa can forget about finishing worse than 6th. To drop as low as 6th...with a 3 game lead...we would have to lose 3 of our remaining 5 games. That means going 6-4 in our last 10. We haven’t been worse than 7-3 in any 10 game stretch all season.

The teams behind us don’t matter IMO. I want them all to start winning because it helps us if we handle our business.
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I've conceeded the bye. I'm not having it both ways. And I have made strong arguments for why I want the double bye. I've posted twice today our record in the tournament on Thursday during the era of the last two coaches.

Ive also made arguments for why we aren't going to to get it. You have admitted yourself that we have to win out. Do you really think we will? It's going to be a wild finish. But Wiescamp has a better chance of banking that shot in again than we have at the double bye. You're looking up everyone's schedule and playing all these scenarios. It's like obsessing over everything you will do with the $10,000 if you win the grand prize at the church picnic raffle knowing that you have about a .1% chsnce of your name being drawn.

It's OK that our opinions differ. That's what this forum is for!
 
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Northside Hawk said:
I've conceeded the bye. I'm not having it both ways. And I have made strong arguments for why I want the double bye. I've posted twice today our record in the tournament on Thursday during the era of the last two coaches.

Ive also made arguments for why we aren't going to to get it. You have admitted yourself that we have to win out. Do you really think we will? It's going to be a wild finish. But Wiescamp has a better chance of banking that shot in again than we have at the double bye. It's like obsessing over everything you will do with the $10,000 if you win the grand prize at the church picnic raffle knowing that you have about a .1% chsnce of your name being drawn.
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If you’re conceding the bye you can stop worrying about MN and OSU. They can’t catch us unless we contend for the bye. That’s the point I’m making.

I think it’s 50-50 we will win out. Wisconsin is the game we could/should lose. But they aren’t world beaters. We could avenge that home loss. I think we have to play below average to lose any of the other 4...even if they play above average.
 
Northside Hawk said:
I've conceeded the bye. I'm not having it both ways. And I have made strong arguments for why I want the double bye. I've posted twice today our record in the tournament on Thursday during the era of the last two coaches.

Ive also made arguments for why we aren't going to to get it. You have admitted yourself that we have to win out. Do you really think we will? It's going to be a wild finish. But Wiescamp has a better chance of banking that shot in again than we have at the double bye. You're looking up everyone's schedule and playing all these scenarios. It's like obsessing over everything you will do with the $10,000 if you win the grand prize at the church picnic raffle knowing that you have about a .1% chsnce of your name being drawn.

It's OK that our opinions differ. That's what this forum is for!
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Iowa's success on Thursdays under the last 2 coaches has about as much relevance as their success under Steve Alford. It has not been kind of us as of late, no doubt. But that's like saying Iowa has a really great shot at beating Michigan in football next year because they haven't lost to them since 2012. Or saying Iowa isn't going to lose to ISU next year in football because they've won the last 4. It just doesn't matter.
 
WindsorHawk said:
If you’re conceding the bye you can stop worrying about MN and OSU. They can’t catch us unless we contend for the bye. That’s the point I’m making.

I think it’s 50-50 we will win out. Wisconsin is the game we could/should lose. But they aren’t world beaters. We could avenge that home loss. I think we have to play below average to lose any of the other 4...even if they play above average.
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I would love to see us win out. We all would.
 
InGoodCo said:
Iowa's success on Thursdays under the last 2 coaches has about as much relevance as their success under Steve Alford. It has not been kind of us as of late, no doubt. But that's like saying Iowa has a really great shot at beating Michigan in football next year because they haven't lost to them since 2012. Or saying Iowa isn't going to lose to ISU next year in football because they've won the last 4. It just doesn't matter.
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Four consecutive losses to double digit seeds is not a fluke. It's a trend. Northwestern hit with a three point barrage. We couldn't score against Penn State. Illinois' got a huge early lead and when we recovered Malcolm Hill hit the dagger. We couldn't stop or even slow down Indiana.

Don't pretend it doesn't exist. It hurt our tournament seedings three years in a row and helped send us to the NIT the fourth year. This is the year we have to put our experience and clutch shooting ability to good use in Chicago. Don't want an eight or nine seed? Win on Thursday, and preferrably at least Friday too.
 
WindsorHawk said:
If you’re conceding the bye you can stop worrying about MN and OSU. They can’t catch us unless we contend for the bye. That’s the point I’m making.

I think it’s 50-50 we will win out. Wisconsin is the game we could/should lose. But they aren’t world beaters. We could avenge that home loss. I think we have to play below average to lose any of the other 4...even if they play above average.
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You are forgetting one possibility. Ohio State and Minnesota winning, allowing us hope for a double bye, then Iowa not doing their part and losing some games. I haven't looked at the possibilities of who could pass us if we go 2-3, but I do know it's far from impossible that we end up doing that. I think at this point I'm conceding the double bye and rooting for teams behind us to lose, just in case we finish weak down the stretch.
 
PCHawk said:
You are forgetting one possibility. Ohio State and Minnesota winning, allowing us hope for a double bye, then Iowa not doing their part and losing some games. I haven't looked at the possibilities of who could pass us if we go 2-3, but I do know it's far from impossible that we end up doing that. I think at this point I'm conceding the double bye and rooting for teams behind us to lose, just in case we finish weak down the stretch.
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Copied this post I just made elsewhere. Both us AND all 4 our remaining (weak) opponents have to do a complete 180 for us to drop below 6th alone. And OSU & MN have to win games they haven’t won all season. The odds against Iowa finishing lower than a solo 6th are staggering.


There’s no such thing as a sure thing in the Big 10. But let’s assume the next 5 games are relatively “normal.”

Indiana - Lost 11 out of 12. The win happened when 2 abnormal things happened. MSU refused to make a FT. Indiana shot better than usual from 3. It took both for Indiana to get an OT win. Hawks Win.

Ohio State - 0-6 against the conference’s top 6 teams...3 losses at home and 3 on the road. Every game but one has been lost by double figures...the exception being a 9 point home loss to MSU. Four of remaining 5 against top 6 = NIT. Hawks Win.

Rutgers - Two conference road wins are PSU and NW by 4 and 3 respectively. They should have kept the talk of revenge in the locker room. Hawks Win.

Wisconsin - They are 5-3 at home...3 of the wins by single digits. Iowa is 1-5 against the top 5 with no road wins. Hawks Lose.
 
Right now we are projected as the 6 seed. We would play the winner of the Indiana Northwestern game. What would be idea is if Indiana jumped Nebraska in the standing so we would play the winner of the Northwestern Nebraska game. In my opinion, those are the 2 worst teams right now. Win that game and MSU would be next. Hopefully Ward is still out and I like our chances in that one way more.
 
PCHawk said:
Right now we are projected as the 6 seed. We would play the winner of the Indiana Northwestern game. What would be idea is if Indiana jumped Nebraska in the standing so we would play the winner of the Northwestern Nebraska game. In my opinion, those are the 2 worst teams right now. Win that game and MSU would be next. Hopefully Ward is still out and I like our chances in that one way more.
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Lots of jockeying still possible within the top three seeds. I would personally like another shot at Purdue. But yeah, Izzo is already looking ahead at potential tournament matchups and saving Ward just for a matchup with us.:)
 
I spent most of the year hoping the home game vs Rutgers would be our 10th win. We already have 10 now.

Is there anyone out there who thinks we need more wins to guarantee we get into the tourament? I feel like we could lose 5 straight and still get in.
 
PCHawk said:
I spent most of the year hoping the home game vs Rutgers would be our 10th win. We already have 10 now.

Is there anyone out there who thinks we need more wins to guarantee we get into the tourament? I feel like we could lose 5 straight and still get in.
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1 - We’re in...don’t have to win again.

2 - We will go at least 2-2...because I predicted 12-8 when we were 0-3 and it’s going to be that or better. I should be digging that thread up soon.
 
Status quo yesterday. Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin all won. Ohio State lost. It looks like the five or six. And needing to win at Wisconsin to have a chance at the five.

It is absolutely preposterous to think that we could potentially finish 14-6 in the conference and only end up in sixth place. But that's a possibility. Maryland and Purdue and to some extent Wisconsin really surprised this year.
 
eveningnewsteam said:
The 6 is practically locked. Only thing left for Iowa to figure is the 11/14 seed in that Wednesday game who Iowa would play
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Yeah, it would take an epic meltdown by Maryland and Iowa running the table the last 4 games just to get to the 5 seed. Imo, it is who ends up as the 3 seed. I am hoping it is Purdue. Carson Edwards isn't a great matchup for Iowa, but everyone else in that lineup is. Lot more favorable than MSU or Michigan.

And yes, I am assuming Iowa will beat the 11/14 seed on Thursday.
 
The most likely is 6th with an outside shot at 5. Maryland, Purdue, MSU and Michigan are going to get the double bye spots. Losing at home to Wisconsin and Maryland and on the road at Minnesota were costly. The close wins against the likes of Rutgers, Northwestern, and Indiana are what makes those losses seem worse.

I'm guessing that the 11/14 seeds will be Northwestern and Nebraska, which could result in playing Nebraska back to back should they beat NW.
 
Iffen we were able to win out I think we have an outside shot at the four seed because Michigan could still lose 2. They still have to play at Maryland and MSU.
 
We really need Penn State be beat Maryland this week. If that happens, we have a really good chance at the 4 seed if we win out. If that were to happen, when Maryland and Michigan state play each other the next game, if either team wins it would help us. If Maryland wins, all we need is MSU to beat Michigan at home. If Michigan wins, Maryland will already be behind us. The one thing that would hurt us is if we ended up in a 4 way tie. That would put us as the 5 seed.
 
So the only thing we need to happen that's not chalk (other than Iowa winning out) is Maryland to win at home against Michigan. We only need help from one game right now.

If Penn State beats Maryland, we probably want Michigan to beat them too. This is still way more realistic than I thought.
 
PCHawk said:
I spent most of the year hoping the home game vs Rutgers would be our 10th win. We already have 10 now.

Is there anyone out there who thinks we need more wins to guarantee we get into the tourament? I feel like we could lose 5 straight and still get in.
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Iowa is in.

Anyone look at the bubble teams?
Weak bubble.
 
Anyone run this lately? I have Iowa playing the NW vs. RUT winner in our 1st game. I’m hoping it’s Rutgers...nothing to do with revenge or how good they are. I don’t think they have the type of team that will play well back to back with no rest.

I think the loser of Michigan vs. MSU game will be the 3 seed. I’m cheering for MSU this week. They are the 1 or 2 seed if they win out. I would rather play Michigan on Friday. They don’t play the thuggish style we struggle with.

If we get past Friday I don’t care who we play. I just hope we can get over the Thursday/Friday hurdle.
 
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