NCAA Tournament for Iowa in 2013?

Iowa needs to hope the non-conference is a little tougher than last year. Beating 300+ RPI teams doesn't really help much. Hopefully some of the teams like Norfolk State (tourney team) will help a little bit. They also need to beat ISU and the ACC tourney (road win) to improve their RPI since they don't have many oppurtunities for a solid non-conference win.

They probably will not sweep Wisky or Minn, and might get swept by Minny if Mbakwe (sp) comes back to full form (they should be a top 25 team). But they should be able to beat Penn State and NW this year to make up for it They will probably be comparable to NW from last year...Always trending at the bubble and in the conversation that will need to play their way in during the BTT.

30% is dead on
 
We were 8-10 in the conference last year....probably right where we deserved to be. While we did lose some bad games (Neb, PSU, NW) we also got some games (Mich, Wisc 2x, Minn 2x) that we can't always expect either.

So the question becomes.....can the returning players improve enough and can the incoming players bring enough to affect 2 add'l wins in conference? I think without a doubt the answer is yes.
 
Tierney said:
Both minnesota and wisconsin have coaches in their early sixties. I'm sure its a wonderful age, but its hard to imagine they are as physically, and maybe as mentally gifted to be coaching compared to where they were in their mid-forties. Their is a small difference between winning and losing in the higher echelons of college athletics. The only teams Iowa didn't seem to have a chance of beating in the conference last year were ohio state and michigan state. Hopefully, they will be able to give them a good game this year, but I don't see why they won't be able to play with anyone else in the conference. They seemed to be able to last year, and they should be better this year.
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Have you seen Bo Ryan coach a college game? He spends most of it squatting in a baseball catcher's stance. You can't do that if you aren't fit. Most guys in their 30's can't do that without needing a moment to gather themselves.

Tubby has more energy than almost any coach on the sidelines. He isn't going anywhere.
 
rickyrudd1 said:
I disagree. We only need to be the same in the conference. We need to be better in the non-con, and not lose games to UNI, Campbell (or Campbell-equivalent) and Virginia Tech. If we can maintain in conference and be better in non-con, we are in.
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I agree with this. If we can finish .500 in conference we should make the NCAA tournament as long as we roll through our out of conference schedule like we should. Losses to Campbell caliber schools will derail our chances quickly.
 
JonDMiller said:
But in this thinking, you have to devalue Gatens' late season shooting performance, and must also devalue sweeping Wisco and MN, because in most years that is not going to happen.

You can't just take all the close wins and keep them wins while giving yourself wins in other games earlier in the season...at least to my thinking.
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Normally I would agree, but I think Fran knows how to speed teams up, I don't think Wisconsin will be as much trouble for us in IC anymore, and I think Bo's players will have to go Matt Gatens on us to not at the very least be in the game in Madison.

That being said, I do think we hit 21+, however I wont be disappointed if we don't get there.

Also, I think Marble takes another big step this year and teams will struggle to stop him.
 
I think there are 4 locks in the Big Ten next year....MSU,Mich,IU,OSU.
After that, Wisky,Iowa,Ill,Minny,PU and NW will compete for 3 slots.
PSU,Neb. need not apply.

I think Iowa can finish ahead of NW,PU and Ill,and match Wisky and Minny.
If we take care of business in non-conference,we should have a decent shot.
I would say 40% chance....same as Wisky,Minny and Ill.
 
I see us as a strong NIT team this year making a deep run in that tourney.

I think the NCAA tourney is a long shot (10%).
 
pmchawk said:
Normally I would agree, but I think Fran knows how to speed teams up, I don't think Wisconsin will be as much trouble for us in IC anymore, and I think Bo's players will have to go Matt Gatens on us to not at the very least be in the game in Madison.

That being said, I do think we hit 21+, however I wont be disappointed if we don't get there.

Also, I think Marble takes another big step this year and teams will struggle to stop him.
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Fran is not the first coach in the Big Ten to want to play fast...and Wisconsin has been controlling tempo for much of the Boy Ryan era.
 
I'm not sure what to make of next year's team. They will be so young and while talented it's not like they freshman on the team are lottery players. I'm excited for next year and it's nice that the tournament is on the radar but my gut says bubble at best.
 
I think people are not giving enough credit to the impact of upgrading from Cartwright to Gesell. Ya'll might say "well, he's a freshman, blah, blah." Even as a freshman, he is a huge upgrade.
 
I don't care what you guys say. If Iowa doesn't make the NCAA tournament this year I am going to bed extremely disappointed. We have all the pieces, and a great general.
 
atxhawk said:
I'm with Miller on this one. Before I even read the full post I was thinking about 30% chance. I think part of my reason for 30% is just trying to temper my own enthusiasm so that I don't get too pished off if they don't make it. It's good to feel excited about the basketball team again, but I also realize they are still in rebuilding mode, even with the promising freshmen.
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I pretty much agree. Would love to be placed in KC. (Actually would be happy to go anywhere just to be in tourney)
 
tksirius said:
I think people are not giving enough credit to the impact of upgrading from Cartwright to Gesell. Ya'll might say "well, he's a freshman, blah, blah." Even as a freshman, he is a huge upgrade.
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I agree, if you compare this years team to last years team you have to think this years team is more talented. You lose Archie, Gatens, Brommer, and Cartwright but you replace them with Gesell, Meyer, Woodbury, Clemmons, and Ingram. You also have to expect improvements from players like White, Marble, and Oglesby.

If Iowa would have taken care of the non conference last year they would of at least been a bubble team. We are all hoping they improve on that this year.
 
You are correct...

JonDMiller said:
Fran is not the first coach in the Big Ten to want to play fast...and Wisconsin has been controlling tempo for much of the Boy Ryan era.
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it will be interesting to see if last year's games against Wisconsin (in terms of pace) were merely outliers or an indication that Fran is able to "speed Wisconsin up."

The two games Wisconsin played against Iowa were the 1 and 3 games in terms of number of possessions in a game the Badgers played all season. The first game in Madison had 68 possessions, the second in Iowa City had 63. Badgers had a non-con game against Mississippi Valley State with 68 possessions. I could have missed another game, someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Even North Carolina, playing in North Carolina, couldn't speed up the Badgers. And Roy Williams loves to play fast. UNC and Wisky played a 58 possession game (Tar Heels won). None of the Badgers other B1G games approached the 68 possession game when Iowa won in Madison.

Even in 2010-11, when Iowa and Wisky played OT in Iowa City, that game had just 56 possessions. So either Fran figured something out in getting Wisky to go a bit faster, or Badgers were just uncharacteristically rushed. Only thing I can remember from the two games in 2011-12 related to pace is that Iowa got more transition baskets in those 2 games against Wisconsin than probably the previous 10 years combined (even off made baskets) and that Wisconsin took more early 3's in the shot clock than usual. Iowa also had an actual sizable lead down the stretch in Madison, forcing Wisky to foul and increase the number of possessions a bit more than normal.

Badgers are not easily moved out of their comfort zone, so we'll see if this is something that continues or just a blip.
 
40% chance.

An absolutely MUST is to not stumble in the non-conf. Their schedule is too weak to allow for it.

If Iowa can get to that 10 win plateau in conf and get through the non-conf relatively unscathed, they'll like get in.
 
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