NCAA Tournament for Iowa in 2013?

PCHawk said:
I think the 2 players are very different and the odds of white regressing are very slim
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Not sure how they're different, other than the "obvious". But I still remember the hype that was around Mel after his freshman year. The dunks, the blocks, the game he had against Sullinger, etc.

It's funny, we talk about White and how much better he is than Mel (latest is always the greatest), but here are the stats from each of their freshman years and see if you can tell who's who:

Player A:
11.0ppg
6.8rpg
1.3bpg
57% FG
71%FT

Player B:
11.1ppg
5.7rpg
.7bpg
50%FG
70%FT
 
different as in white's offensive game is harder to stop. he is a better shooter and better with the ball in his hands. he also moves better without the ball
 
If we stay completely healthy the entire year, I put our chances at making the tourney at 60 percent.
 
Its important to have talent and depth although Iowa will be pretty young next year, but one of the most important elements is Fran and his staff really seem to know what they are doing. Their are some coaches that aren't that good, and their are lots of coaches that are good and even pretty good, but it is rare to find a coach in the elite class. Hopefully, Fran is the man. Anyway, Fran and his staff have exceeded expectations, and I think they will probably next year too.
 
I'll go with 40% chance of being selected, and if so, they'll be seeded somewhere from 13-16 in an unfavorable bracket.
 
My head says bubble team at below 50 percent chance but my heart says 100 percent. I really believe they will make it this season. So I'm going to go with my heart and say 100 percent just for fun.

And no that's not based totally on PTL performances :)

I agree with the poster who said Gesell is the key. The lost of Gatens will be tough, but with a good point guard (and Clemmons being an able backup) Marble and Oglesby can cover the production of Gatens.

Don't forget that Bryce Cartright and Mel Basabe weren't themselves for 3/4 of last year. If they started off better they very well may have made the tournament last season.
 
hawkinaclownhouse said:
Because overall they have more talent on this team.

By the Big Ten season

Gessel => Cartwright.
White = Gatens
Marble and McCabe improved
Basabe return to freshman form rather than sophomore

Woodbury, Olesani, Meyer much better than Brommer & Archie

Eric May may finally be healthy enough to contribute again.

Josh O ready to be more consistent

Two freshman guards add depth and athletism we did not have last year.
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I believe that Gessel is going to be a very good player, but FR PGs make many mistakes and don't lead their teams to the NCAA very often unless they are exceptional players.
 
Does anyone seriously think White will have a sophomore campaign anywhere near that of Basabe's? Is there any evidence that suggests Big Ten basketball players generally perform worse as sophomores? I am only guessing here, but I'd imagine there is fairly strong evidence that suggests significant improvement generally occurs for most Big Ten basketball players from freshman to sophomore year.

But back to the original question...I'd put the odds at 50%.

There seems to be a buzz about Mike Gesell. I'm not saying he is the second coming of Ronnie Lester (at least not yet), but by accounts ranging from past and current Hawkeye players, to Big Ten basketball beat writers, to AAU coaches, Gesell is ready to contribute major minutes and compete at the Big Ten level right now.

Placing too much hope in the hands of a freshman? Maybe, but remember, I only said 50/50 for the tournament. And I think there is increasing evidence that freshmen with Gesell's credentials can make a significant impact from day 1.

Also, Gesell isn't being asked to carry this team. If he can be a serviceable Big Ten point guard, Iowa might be a tough team to beat. You go as your guards go in college basketball, and my prediction is that Marble/Gesell will be more than adequate next year. They should be able to provide penetration and shooting.

Combine those two with Oglesby's range and White's versatility, and Iowa has more ways to score than it has had in years. And for as much as I doubted that McCabe had Big Ten talent, he presents match-up problems too. He's a good enough shooter to draw a defender out to the three point line, and quick enough with the dribble to get past most post players. What he lacks in size once in the paint, he seems to make up for with grit and positioning.

My thought is that 30% seems too low.
 
JonDMiller said:
so then how in the heck do you say 50%?
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Because they somehow managed to win 8 games in the conference this year, and with an improved squad coming back, it's possible. It depends on how good White, Marble, and Basabe are, IMO.

I like our chances a lot more in two years.
 
pmchawk said:
I order to put a % don't you have to figure how close they were the previous year? Injuries hurt us in the noncon schedule last year. How many B1G games did we leave on the table. Definitely both purdue games. Without the injuries and being able to finish the purdue games we may have been on the bubble.
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But in this thinking, you have to devalue Gatens' late season shooting performance, and must also devalue sweeping Wisco and MN, because in most years that is not going to happen.

You can't just take all the close wins and keep them wins while giving yourself wins in other games earlier in the season...at least to my thinking.
 
We had one of the youngest teams in the conf last year. Lost less talent to graduation than about anyone. Had our best recruiting class in a decade.

It’s hard to believe that our record won’t improve by a couple games, judging by the 7 win improvement made this past year.

65%
 
Scorpio79 said:
I'll go with 40% chance of being selected, and if so, they'll be seeded somewhere from 13-16 in an unfavorable bracket.
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at large teams are rarely, if ever, seeded lower than 12th. The only time at large teams are seeded lower than 12th is if they have stipulations against playing on Sunday's and the seeding has to be adjusted to accommodate that. I think that happened this past year with BYU and maybe one other.
 
JonDMiller said:
at large teams are rarely, if ever, seeded lower than 12th. The only time at large teams are seeded lower than 12th is if they have stipulations against playing on Sunday's and the seeding has to be adjusted to accommodate that. I think that happened this past year with BYU and maybe one other.
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Oh. Oops. :eek:
 
Games we know:

Home and homes with:
Indiana
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Penn State
Northwestern
Purdue

= 14 games. Must sweep NW, Nebraska and PSU. That would be six wins. Split with MN, Purdue and Wisconsin, that is 9-3. Say Indiana wins twice, 9-5

One Off:

MSU (in IC)
@OSU
@Michigan
Illinois (in IC)

say Iowa goes 1-3 there...that is 10-8 in Big Ten play.

Out of conference:

Home v ISU: tossup. They are going to have a good team
UNI in DSM: win
Home v Central Michigan: win
at Virginia Tech: Must win

if Iowa goes 10-8 in conference, they need to go say 10-3 in non-conf with no losses to the likes of Campbell, to be on the bubble, and would probably need to win opening round of Big Ten tourney to get to an at large bid.

That would be 21 wins...or four more than they won before the NIT began last year.

I think it would still be close. Purdue was a 10 seed at 21-12 last year.
 
I think there are a lot of "if's" that all have to bounce Iowa's way.

Gesell must be good. I don't doubt he is... but he's a freshman and there are a lot of good, experienced players he would be competing with in the Big 10.

Olaseni and Woodbury need to be decent. If.

Oglesby needs to find some consistency. If.

Defense needs to improve, a LOT. If. Iowa was 180th in the country in defensive efficiency last year. 3 B10 teams were in the top 5, 5 were in the top 50, 9 were in the top 100. Only NU, NW, and Iowa were below 100.

On top of that, PSU was like 94th, allowing 97.3 point per 100 possessions. Iowa averaged 101.9 points per 100 possessions. That gap is actually pretty large.

I think it all boils down to defense, and that's where I question Iowa's ability to make the dance. Iowa will score and likely score a lot this year. You lose Gatens, who was obviously a pretty dang good defender. Iowa's likely top players next year will either be freshman, or players I don't think are anything beyond average defenders. Basabe gets a lot of blocks but those are helpside and I don't think he's the type of guy who defends straight up all that well. I could obviously be wrong here but I don't think Iowa gets markedly better on the defensive end.

Edit: Here are the BCS teams with a worse defensive efficiency than Iowa last year - NW, Boston College, Providence, AZ State, DePaul, and Utah. That's it. Only one BCS team made the tourney with a defensive efficiency greater than 100th, and that Mizzou, who had the #1 offensive efficiency (by a pretty wide margin) and who also got upset in the first round. Basically the defense needs to improve, and likely improve a lot.
 
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Iowa would have made the tournament last year had it taken care of the non conference. So on paper one would think just improving the non conference results and maintaining the same record in conference could result in a bid. While this may be true it leads me to ask the question will this years team be better than last years?

I think if you look at what Iowa lost compared to what is being brought in the team will be better. The only player that will be missed is Gatens, Cartwright was hurt and in effective and the team may be better not having Brommer & Archie on the roster. I am hoping Woodbury can step up and be a force in the middle, with a legit big man I think Basabe's game will step up like he did his freshman year playing along side Cole. A healthy Eric May and a confident shooting Oglesby can make up for the production of Gatens. Marble, McCabe, and White are only going to keep getting better and add in the other incoming freshmen I think Iowa may surprise a few teams this season.

I still do not think we have seen Frans uptempo style of play completely unfold yet and this season I think he finally has the talent and the bodies to do it. They might go 10 to 12 deep this season.

I am going to go out on a limb here and say without any major set backs this Iowa team makes it into the NCAA Tournament. In Gesell & Woodbury Iowa has not had 2 high profile recruits since Horner and Brunner. Horner & Brunner just missed the NCAA Tournament as freshmans and I think Gesell & Woodbury step into a much better situation with a much better team.

I give Iowa a 75% chance of making the Big Dance.
 
I think Gesell will be one of the better freshman Iowa has had in a long time. I don't have any expectations for Woodbury this year..that's less about him and more about history of freshmen big men in elite leagues.
 
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