NCAA Tournament for Iowa in 2013?

Jon, I think your post is clearly meant to temper fan expectations going into the season.

Does Iowa sweep Minnesota and Wisconsin again this season? I give that about a 5% chance of happening again.

Nebraska has a solid coach, NW has been better lately and PSU is going to be better in year 2 than in year 1 under Chambers.

The rest of the league is BRUTAL.

It really depends on Iowa's strength of non-con schedule which doesn't look to be that challenging. Iowa State is the biggest opponent. With a weak non-con and a 10-8 record, that doesn't necessarily get you in considering there are probably 5 locks form the BIG (Ind, Wis, OSU, Mich, MSU). Purdue is just behind and is historically tough. Illinois despite their dismal season has loads of talent and NW has been on the verge for years. That is 5-8 teams probably ahead of Iowa.

Which makes Fran's extension that much more perplexing.
 
activebadger said:
Jon, I think your post is clearly meant to temper fan expectations going into the season.

Does Iowa sweep Minnesota and Wisconsin again this season? I give that about a 5% chance of happening again.

Nebraska has a solid coach, NW has been better lately and PSU is going to be better in year 2 than in year 1 under Chambers.

The rest of the league is BRUTAL.

It really depends on Iowa's strength of non-con schedule which doesn't look to be that challenging. Iowa State is the biggest opponent. With a weak non-con and a 10-8 record, that doesn't necessarily get you in considering there are probably 5 locks form the BIG (Ind, Wis, OSU, Mich, MSU). Purdue is just behind and is historically tough. Illinois despite their dismal season has loads of talent and NW has been on the verge for years. That is 5-8 teams probably ahead of Iowa.

Which makes Fran's extension that much more perplexing.
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Fran's extension is not at all perplexing, in my opinion.
 
LG210 said:
Fran's extension is not at all perplexing, in my opinion.
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I think if you looked at it from any of the other teams in the BIG's perspective it would be.

It's not like he had to be locked in because Florida or Arizona were waiting at the door to steal him. Why not wait to see how his 3rd season played out?

Iowa is saddled with a big contract if the experiment doesn't pan out as many hope.
 
I think they make it in, lose a couple of WTF's but at minimum split with the B1G big dogs and finish in the top half. Lose second round game.
 
activebadger said:
Jon, I think your post is clearly meant to temper fan expectations going into the season.

Does Iowa sweep Minnesota and Wisconsin again this season? I give that about a 5% chance of happening again.

Nebraska has a solid coach, NW has been better lately and PSU is going to be better in year 2 than in year 1 under Chambers.

The rest of the league is BRUTAL.

It really depends on Iowa's strength of non-con schedule which doesn't look to be that challenging. Iowa State is the biggest opponent. With a weak non-con and a 10-8 record, that doesn't necessarily get you in considering there are probably 5 locks form the BIG (Ind, Wis, OSU, Mich, MSU). Purdue is just behind and is historically tough. Illinois despite their dismal season has loads of talent and NW has been on the verge for years. That is 5-8 teams probably ahead of Iowa.

Which makes Fran's extension that much more perplexing.
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NW lost Shurna. 'Nuff said. Purdue and Illinois will be VERY beatable. No way we lose to the Fuskers this year. Should've beat Purdue twice last year and got Illinois once and what's his name is gone. We beat Indiana, Wisconsin twice, and Michigan with FAR LESS talent than we have this year (not even close). And you think we're going to finish 8th or 9th in the league???!! But then again, you think Becky is elite.....
 
rickyrudd1 said:
I disagree. We only need to be the same in the conference. We need to be better in the non-con, and not lose games to UNI, Campbell (or Campbell-equivalent) and Virginia Tech. If we can maintain in conference and be better in non-con, we are in.
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Absolutely correct. Its actually seems pretty easy to me.

Beat all the crap teams that they lost to last year, which was an enormousness amount, and you don't have to be nearly as good against the good teams.

Iowa could have likely made it last year without the 7 or 8 losses to awful opponents.

The argument that Iowa won't sweep Wisconsin again is offset by the fact that they shouldn't lose to Nebraska, PSU, and NW again.

Beat the teams that you should beat and the rest is more than likely to take care of itself.
 
In order to keep moving forward its a must to make the tourney. If Fran wants the BIG Time recruits its a must. I think if we don't make it to the tourney the program is at a stand still and Fran isn't about not making progress. We make it in with 22 wins.
 
PCHawk said:
different as in white's offensive game is harder to stop. he is a better shooter and better with the ball in his hands. he also moves better without the ball
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Pretty obvious really. Basabe got allot of his points on post ups his freshman year.

Next year teams started doubling him and he is a terrible passer so it pretty much just shut him down. Mel tends to lose his energy if he isnt scoring.

Indiana was about the only team that didn't double him last year and he showed he is still the same player if you allow him to play one on one.

Whites offensive game is about as diverse as it gets where Basabes is very limited.

Basabe is not going to be nearly as much off a focus for other teams this year so it should free him up.

No need to worry about Aaron he will get his points. The place to worry about him in on defense.
 
activebadger said:
Jon, I think your post is clearly meant to temper fan expectations going into the season.

Does Iowa sweep Minnesota and Wisconsin again this season? I give that about a 5% chance of happening again.

Nebraska has a solid coach, NW has been better lately and PSU is going to be better in year 2 than in year 1 under Chambers.

The rest of the league is BRUTAL.

It really depends on Iowa's strength of non-con schedule which doesn't look to be that challenging. Iowa State is the biggest opponent. With a weak non-con and a 10-8 record, that doesn't necessarily get you in considering there are probably 5 locks form the BIG (Ind, Wis, OSU, Mich, MSU). Purdue is just behind and is historically tough. Illinois despite their dismal season has loads of talent and NW has been on the verge for years. That is 5-8 teams probably ahead of Iowa.

Which makes Fran's extension that much more perplexing.
Click to expand...

I think Illinois will win more games, as I am betting on them having better chemistry. Purdue is going to be down. NW loses their all time leading scorer. PSU will probably be better and Nebraska loses a ton and they were the 2nd most 'experienced' team in all of Division 1 last year, even though they were not good. But as you say, there are no easy outs anywhere...and there is no way Iowa is sweeping MN and Wisconsin again...meaning going 4-0 there...or at least, highly unlikely. the Gophers are going to be a real good team, better than Wisco IMO...tho I am looking forward to watching Decker play against other teams ;)

I also think this year is the most likely Wisco 'pull back' we've seen since 2006. Not too high on this club
 
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activebadger said:
I think if you looked at it from any of the other teams in the BIG's perspective it would be.

It's not like he had to be locked in because Florida or Arizona were waiting at the door to steal him. Why not wait to see how his 3rd season played out?

Iowa is saddled with a big contract if the experiment doesn't pan out as many hope.
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With all due respect, I don't think anyone on this board rightly gives a $hit about the perspective of any other fan base concerning our coach and his most recent extension and raise. We were in the equivalent of basketball purgatory and in 2 short years he has re-energized the fan base, put more butts in the seats, put together the best recruiting class in about 10 years and has shown the ability to play with the big boys in the conference.

Money talks and BS walks and with the add'l revenue that increased fan support is bringing, he was due his share.

Maybe you should worry more about beating an obviously "inferior" basketball school, as you like to refer to us, than worry about what we are paying our coach.
 
JonDMiller said:
I think Illinois will win more games, as I am betting on them having better chemistry. Purdue is going to be down. NW loses their all time leading scorer. PSU will probably be better and Nebraska loses a ton and they were the 2nd most 'experienced' team in all of Division 1 last year, even though they were not good. But as you say, there are no easy outs anywhere...and there is no way Iowa is sweeping MN and Wisconsin again...meaning going 4-0 there...or at least, highly unlikely. the Gophers are going to be a real good team, better than Wisco IMO...tho I am looking forward to watching Decker play against other teams ;)

I also think this year is the most likely Wisco 'pull back' we've seen since 2006. Not too high on this club
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I actually think this is going to be our best team since Butch's senior year. We return 4 of 5 starters and our sixth man (Brust). Wisconsin is a developmental program in both football and basketball so anytime experience comes back that means more than a big name freshman. This is the most experience that Wisconsin has had returning in a looooong time.

Taylor was a really really good player for us but we were better when he was a junior and had talented bigs to play with. When we relied too heavily on him that was when the offense was stagnant. The last 6 games of the year was when Berggren, Evans, Bruisewitz, Brust really came into their own and played with confidence.

Add to the mix what people are calling the best high school player in Wisconsin in the last 30 years and that is a pretty great thing for a great coach to work with.
 
JonDMiller said:
I think Illinois will win more games, as I am betting on them having better chemistry. Purdue is going to be down. NW loses their all time leading scorer. PSU will probably be better and Nebraska loses a ton and they were the 2nd most 'experienced' team in all of Division 1 last year, even though they were not good. But as you say, there are no easy outs anywhere...and there is no way Iowa is sweeping MN and Wisconsin again...meaning going 4-0 there...or at least, highly unlikely. the Gophers are going to be a real good team, better than Wisco IMO...tho I am looking forward to watching Decker play against other teams ;)

I also think this year is the most likely Wisco 'pull back' we've seen since 2006. Not too high on this club
Click to expand...

But I do agree with you in one respect. The Gophers are going to be good. Especially if Rodney Williams can play up to his physical tools which just might be the most spectacular in Division I from an athletic standpoint. The guys is simply blessed with every physical tool you can imagine.
 
i would say the b10 is looking at 7 teams in the ncaa tourney. of those 7 you have 5 probably already decided (mich, indiana, osu, wisky, msu). that leaves 7 teams vying for 2 spots (outside 3 spots). 2/7 is about 28.5% (close to your 30% chance). but then look at the 7 teams left.

1) illinois
2) iowa
3) minnesota
4) northwestern
5) purdue
6) penn state - no chance
7) nebraska - no chance

so by my take of those 7 teams 2 have zero chance of making it...2/5 puts it at 40% chance. that is if everything is equal amongst the 5 teams. i feel we have a leg up on purdue and minny so my best guess is 45% chance. if i were a betting man i would take those odds with how young and inexperienced we are.

i would say this team goes as far as marble and white can take them. and if marble really steps up that he will give himself an outside chance at nba but he will have to carry this team to the ncaa tourney and into the 2nd round (pigtail games dont count as rounds to me) at least.
 
Both minnesota and wisconsin have coaches in their early sixties. I'm sure its a wonderful age, but its hard to imagine they are as physically, and maybe as mentally gifted to be coaching compared to where they were in their mid-forties. Their is a small difference between winning and losing in the higher echelons of college athletics. The only teams Iowa didn't seem to have a chance of beating in the conference last year were ohio state and michigan state. Hopefully, they will be able to give them a good game this year, but I don't see why they won't be able to play with anyone else in the conference. They seemed to be able to last year, and they should be better this year.
 
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