SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
Soft mattress last night?
In the scenario above, where would you see Iowa being ranked next week? 6th or 7th ish?
Narrow path to playoff
- Thread starter SwirlinLingerie
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In the scenario above, where would you see Iowa being ranked next week? 6th or 7th ish?
Fryowa
Administrator
One thing Vegas knows about is stupid (overall) fan bases. They know that Iowa is in the CCG on a wing and a prayer, and they know there are dumb enough people wearing gold colored glasses who think that Iowa can get in by somehow winning it.
Here's something it would benefit you to remember when thinking about stuff like this...
Books don't offer odds based on what they think will happen. They offer odds based on how much betting traffic they can get by enticing stupid people. They make very little money off of people who know sports well and bet prudently, and they make a whole lot of money off of idiots who are easily enticed.
If you don't think Vegas knows really, really well which fanbases are rubes...well, my friend...I don't know what to tell ya.
Fryowa
Administrator
So in an 88-3 rout of Michigan, you still see Iowa with two losses (one being to the boat rowers and the other being to a team Michigan themselves beat by two scores) getting in over a one-loss Michigan team?
Come on, dude. You have to be f*cking with us.
That city of casino lights wasn't built off dudes winning long shot sports bets... But lots of old farts giving away their social security checks and idiot bettors who are just plain idiots.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
For what it is worth, I think Iowa gets in before Penn State. Yes, head to head. But, Iowa's win over Michigan is far any away better than any win PSU has. I think the committee would take into account the questionable nature of the Minny loss. Iowa would be the conference champ and played one more game than Penn State. And, if you are going to break this tie, Iowa would be a fucking compelling story.
But again, Iowa has no scenario to make the playoffs. Neither does PSU.
But again, Iowa has no scenario to make the playoffs. Neither does PSU.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
BTW, what are the odds? What does a $100 bet get me when the Georgia Dome implodes via tornado killing both SEC contenders?
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
This is the scenario I'm talking about. Who gets in besides WA and GA and what is Iowa's final rank? I'd say probably Michigan and Ohio State, and Iowa around 6th or 7th.
Iowa beats Michigan
Washington beats Oregon
Georgia beats Alabama
Texas loses to OK State
Florida State loses to Louisville
Fryowa
Administrator
Correct.
But in the scenario that this thread is suggesting, PSU shutting Iowa out but getting beat by Michigan is just as relevant as losing to JP Flick.
Fryowa
Administrator
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
In addition, look at the teams in Iowa's division and their records. They are pretty much .500 or worse below Iowa. Iowa never blew them out and squeaked out wins.
Yep, Iowa doesn't replace Michigan. Michigan gets a lower seed. Georgia losing to Alabama would have put Michigan #1 but the loss would make them #4 in that scenario. Though you probably just listed them not in any real order. Would probably be Ga.(1) vs. Michigan and Wash.(2) vs. Ala.(3)
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
Where would Iowa be ranked?
I think a two loss Alabama would be debated with a two loss Iowa. Alabama would have lost to the two best teams it faced, and its best win would be what, Ole Miss? Iowa would have a far better signature win over #2 Michigan from a couple days before (in front of a huge audience), a Big Ten title, and it would also cause a national revisit of the fair catch. Like hey, maybe that wasn't actually even a loss.
You don't think a one loss Ohio State is above a two loss Alabama? I don't know.
Again, this is a fun hypothetical based on a series of far fetched (although not impossible) scenarios playing out.
Not sure what you are "Jesus"ing...no one in this thread thinks Iowa has a chance at the playoffs. We are just trying to make sense of the weirdness that Iowa has betting odds to do so.
They love the SEC. Don't forget that. Ohio State probably should go ahead of Alabama but doesn't mean they will.
Fryowa
Administrator
Uhhhhhhhh...wut?
Iowa would have lost to Minnesota. And have no quality wins other than Michigan.
Alabama would've beat Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU, all of whom were ranked and finished with winning records. They also beat Texas A&M and Kentucky, both of whom have winning records and are better than any team in the B1G West other than maybe Iowa.
Check your CO detector.
Fryowa
Administrator
OP alluded to Iowa having a chance at making the playoffs in posts #10 and #16
Fryowa
Administrator
Sagarin has Alabama rated 5, and Iowa 30
Massey Composite has Alabama 8 and Iowa 20.
I'm trying real hard to give you the benefit of the doubt and see a situation where Iowa would even get considered in the same breath as Alabama. But I'm not coming up with anything.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
Where do you think Iowa would be ranked next week in that scenario?
You think Alabama jumps up 4 spots with a loss? What if they lose by 2 touchdowns?
You think Alabama jumps up 4 spots with a loss? What if they lose by 2 touchdowns?
Fryowa
Administrator
Put Iowa at random somewhere in the double digits.
Yes Alabama would make the playoffs. This thing is picked by a committee that wants TV money and they ain't getting left out under that scenario.
