Narrow path to playoff

[Grady]

IF...
Iowa beats Michigan
Washington beats Oregon
Georgia beats Alabama
Texas loses to OK State
Florida State loses to Louisville

...Georgia is obviously the #1 seed. Washington a clear #2.
Then it gets interesting. It shouldn't be that difficult, if the Selection Committee followed their own guidelines, which states that a "Conference Championship" should weight heavily in their decision. But precedence has already been set that 'the eye test' counts more to the Selection Committee than conference championships.
So...
Alabama is out, due to 2 losses to two different Top 10 teams.
Texas is out, due to two losses to Top 15 teams.
Iowa finishes higher than Okie St. because Iowa beat a higher ranked foe, and Iowa performed better vs
a common opponent (the Cowpokes lost to Iowa St.; Iowa beat the Clones).
For some reason the Committee likes Louisville, and they'd be a conference champ with only 1 loss, so
they'd likely finish ahead of Iowa, even tho their best win would be against a questionable FL St.
team without their star QB.
I think MIchigan ends up ahead of Iowa due to "body of work".
Therefore...
The #3 slot probably comes down to a choice between a 1-loss Michigan team and a 1-loss Louisville (conf. champ). #3 would probably go to Michigan, because they have 2 Top-10 wins over Ohio St. & Penn St.
Then it gets REALLY interesting...
The final #4 slot would be between Louisville, a 1-loss Ohio St. team whose only loss was to the #3 seed, and a 2-loss Oregon team whose only losses on the year were to #2 seed Washington.
In yesterday's rankings, the Committee has Ohio St. ahead of Oregon, so we'd have to assume it would be down to Louisville vs Ohio St. I think the Buckeyes get the nod for the #4 slot.
So, the playoffs would be #1 Georgia vs #4 Ohio St. and #2 Washingon vs #3 Michigan.
Which sounds about right.
After that, you've got Louisville, Penn St., Oregon, Iowa....etc.

 

[Fryowa]

IF...
Iowa beats Michigan
Washington beats Oregon
Georgia beats Alabama
Texas loses to OK State
Florida State loses to Louisville

Alabama is out, due to 2 losses to two different Top 10 teams.

False. If you think the committee would take OSU over Alabama you are nuts.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

If that happened the playoff would be

Georgia
Alabama
Washington
Michigan

Why would a two loss Bama get in over a 1-loss OSU?

Bama's losses were quality, no doubt, but so was OSU's. Away at Michigan and close loss.

OSU beat PSU and ND on the road.

Other than straight up SEC bias, there is not a good argument for Bama over OSU.

 

[ajdwhs87]

Why would a two loss Bama get in over a 1-loss OSU?

Bama's losses were quality, no doubt, but so was OSU's. Away at Michigan and close loss.

OSU beat PSU and ND on the road.

Other than straight up SEC bias, there is not a good argument for Bama over OSU.

They will use the made the conference championship and Ohio State didn't thing. Not that it holds much water. Alabama probably wouldn't either if they were together with Ga. like OSU and Michigan but they will make something out of it. Also hurts that ND is a lower quality win than it looked liked it was early on. They will have the excuses to justify the bias. Saban vs. Day doesn't help either. If it was still Urban that would help. That Day guy who can't beat Michigan has no weight or pull.

 

[MikeyLikesIowa]

I didn't realize that this they year they expanded the playoffs to 12 teams.

This doesn't take effect until next season. Iowa has virtually no chance of making the CFB playoff.

 

[thedukeofearl]

A friend pointed out to me that Iowa is one of nine teams listed still with odds to win the national title. So I assume there is some kind of path to the playoffs not involving natural disasters, plane crashes or pandemics.

It's November 29th and we're still talking about a path to the playoffs. Have some fun with that, no matter how narrow the odds.

So what is that path?

Iowa beats Michigan
Washington beats Oregon
Georgia beats Alabama
Texas loses to OK State
Florida State loses to Louisville

In that scenario, is it Iowa, WA, GA....and who? Still a one loss Michigan? You can't take a one loss OSU over a one loss Michigan, can you? Could a two loss Iowa really jump a one loss Ohio State?

Is Florida State in regardless of a win or loss in that scenario? What if they look horrible in a loss? Would they dip below a two loss Iowa?

What would the path be?

A somewhat clear path

But perhaps a bit improvable

And actually quite unlikely

But the Possibility exists, and would Shock the Football World

 

[thedukeofearl]

Hold on Lads there is a possibility

According to this Guy

He has a theory...

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Why would a two loss Bama get in over a 1-loss OSU?

Bama's losses were quality, no doubt, but so was OSU's. Away at Michigan and close loss.

OSU beat PSU and ND on the road.

Other than straight up SEC bias, there is not a good argument for Bama over OSU.

Agree.. And Bama damn near lost to a shitty Auburn team. If that's how it were to play out even the most biased of biased SECers on the committee couldn't get that done.

 

[thedukeofearl]

Georgia looks like the most dominating team in America

They are due to a fall, almost happened last year to Ohio State

It is time to bring the trophy back to the Midwest/Big Ten

 

[Fryowa]

Other than straight up SEC bias, there is not a good argument for Bama over OSU.

Ding ding ding....

TV money and SEC bias. Alabama is going to bring the TV viewers and the national media are homers for big SEC football.

 

[CP87]

Why would a two loss Bama get in over a 1-loss OSU?

Bama's losses were quality, no doubt, but so was OSU's. Away at Michigan and close loss.

OSU beat PSU and ND on the road.

Other than straight up SEC bias, there is not a good argument for Bama over OSU.

And OSU ain't Iowa...they have every bit as much blue blood cache as Alabama, with an even larger fan base:

Ranking the largest fan bases in college football

According to a study, these are the 16 largest fan bases in all of college football:

ugawire.usatoday.com

 

[thedukeofearl]

From The Athlete:

America loves an underdog … unless it’s boring old Iowa

Bastards

 

[Gibsonian]

Hopes now dashed after all the hype from this thread. Well we can still hope for a miracle on Saturday night right? We have some examples to provide hope with a win by such a huge underdog in football history right?

 

[thedukeofearl]

The Captain says:

I don't know why, we've got great colors and Iowa is easy to spell

 

[thedukeofearl]

Hopes now dashed after all the hype from this thread. Well we can still hope for a miracle on Saturday night right? We have some examples to provide hope with a win by such a huge underdog in football history right?

CorrectaMundo

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

See, this is fun.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

Ding ding ding....

TV money and SEC bias. Alabama is going to bring the TV viewers and the national media are homers for big SEC football.

If that's the case, why doesn't the committee rank one loss Alabama over one loss Ohio State right now?

Say Alabama loses by 10, I find it hard to believe they'd jump 4 spots and overtake a one loss Ohio State.

 

[ajdwhs87]

If that's the case, why doesn't the committee rank one loss Alabama over one loss Ohio State right now?

Say Alabama loses by 10, I find it hard to believe they'd jump 4 spots and overtake a one loss Ohio State.

Is that 37-27 after Georgia was up 30-3 and called the dogs off or 37-27 after a 'Bama receiver fell down and Ga. got an 83 yard pick six with 1:04 to go.

 

[okeefe4prez]

So I guess you are saying a one loss Michigan and a one loss Ohio State BOTH get picked over Iowa? I think that is a decent assumption, but that's what I am trying to distill here.

Yes, it would be Ohio and Michigan over Iowa if they need two Big Ten teams. There are also paths for two SEC or Pac 10 teams provided Bama or Oregon wins.

 

[okeefe4prez]

So Iowa's fan base has degenerates and idiots but Penn State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Ole Miss, etc, fan bases don't? Because none of those two loss schools have odds listed.

I don't find your argument very compelling.

That's not my argument, my argument is that when I hear Clemson fans telling me they are watching Iowa with some degree of interest because they can't believe how bad the offense on a division champ team there is enough national interest to back Iowa right now to make this a viable suckers bet that has a 99.999999999999999999999999999% chance of paying the house.