Line on Iowa 7.5 Over/Under

[Fryowa]

I loved having a legit reason (11-game season) to exclude year 1, I'll be honest. The overall story doesn't change if he include that year though, it is just tacking one bad year onto the 18 we were already considering..

I wasn't really taking a shot at you because like you mentioned it doesn't change things a ton. I just don't like when I hear the "we have to throw out the first two years of Ferentz's career because they weren't 'his' players" thing that so many people try and use. The same people would sure as hell include them if they were 9 or 10 win seasons.

It's such a nebraksa thing to do.

 

[SteveGarvey1]

I do get your point and I know this will ruffle feathers...

...but I just love it when people exclude bad seasons like 1999. I also see that you said it was because they didn't play 12 games, but come on. You'd definitely include it if Ferentz went 10-1 that year.

A person can't cherry pick data like that. What makes it worse in this case is where do you stop? Is the rule of thumb that you throw out every head coach's first year? Or do you throw out the first three due to them not having their "own" recruits on the field? What if they go 10-2 their first year but 1-11 their second year? Do we give them a pass?
Like I said I know you qualified it being that there were only 11 games. But you still have to include everything, even if it's an average.

Urban Meyer went 24-2 his first two years at OSU, do we throw those out? Fans would say obviously not, non-fans would say, "Of course he won, it's Ohio State."

How'bout Nick Saban? He went 7-6 his first year, does he get to toss those out?

Dabo Swinney? He coached a partial year his first season but only lost one conference game. Toss those?

I know this is a lot of boring rhetoric but I think you can see what I mean. There are a million different scenarios out there and when it comes to statistics you can't include/exclude based on subjective reasons that no one will agree on. You either win or lose and you have to include all of them. Every head football coach in history has had a first year.

Not taking into consideration that Kirk took over a program from Hayden when the cupboard was bare fails to take things into context. Urban went 24-2 his first two years because OSU already had great players and it's a destination place for 5 star recruits. Urb also had a championship ring from Florida which brought in a lot of interest from recruits while Kirk was coming from Maine.

Tossing none, one, or two years out depends on the context who the program is and what potential advantages a coach has when first taking over a program over another coach. It isn't a one size fits all kind of thing.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Under 8 would be a bummer to me but not surprising. 6 or less would be terrible and I'd expect major injuries to have been involved. So 7 or 8 wins is about the right guess as of today. The tougher question might be is how high is the ceiling? Can they be playing well right out of the gates and beat Wisconsin early in the year and ride that wave to a 10 plus win year? It'd take some balls bouncing the right way to do it but as of today who really knows. Questions with the Oline/WRs/LB/DBs would all have to be answered and in a heck of a good way. Lots of things have to go right so we'll see.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Not taking into consideration that Kirk took over a program from Hayden when the cupboard was bare fails to take things into context. Urban went 24-2 his first two years because OSU already had great players and it's a destination place for 5 star recruits. Urb also had a championship ring from Florida which brought in a lot of interest from recruits while Kirk was coming from Maine.

Tossing none, one, or two years out depends on the context who the program is and what potential advantages a coach has when first taking over a program over another coach. It isn't a one size fits all kind of thing.

You can't compare Iowa's and OSUs programs in that context anymore than you can Iowa's and Iowa States. I think you nailed that.

 

[Fryowa]

Not taking into consideration that Kirk took over a program from Hayden when the cupboard was bare fails to take things into context. Urban went 24-2 his first two years because OSU already had great players and it's a destination place for 5 star recruits. Urb also had a championship ring from Florida which brought in a lot of interest from recruits while Kirk was coming from Maine.

Tossing none, one, or two years out depends on the context who the program is and what potential advantages a coach has when first taking over a program over another coach. It isn't a one size fits all kind of thing.

You just stated the exact reason why tossing seasons out is bullshit. “Context.” Context is 100% a matter of individual perception, and perception has no place in stats. At all.

No one agrees on when, why, or for what reason you consider a season “valid.”

You literally could not have proven my point any better.

A win is a win and a loss is a loss. They all count no matter what.

 

[Fryowa]

Under 8 would be a bummer to me but not surprising. 6 or less would be terrible and I'd expect major injuries to have been involved. So 7 or 8 wins is about the right guess as of today. The tougher question might be is how high is the ceiling? Can they be playing well right out of the gates and beat Wisconsin early in the year and ride that wave to a 10 plus win year? It'd take some balls bouncing the right way to do it but as of today who really knows. Questions with the Oline/WRs/LB/DBs would all have to be answered and in a heck of a good way. Lots of things have to go right so we'll see.

If BF uses two TE sets and goes to a passing first offense with Fant and Hockenson taking heat off the WRs I’d say your 7-8 wins is about right.

Unfortunately he won’t, he’s going to keep running Young and IKM into brick walls 3 times in a row and hope Rastetter can get good hang time.

 

[NoBeer]

I EXPECT over and I'll be pissed at 7 or fewer wins with that schedule so put me down for over.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I wasn't really taking a shot at you because like you mentioned it doesn't change things a ton. I just don't like when I hear the "we have to throw out the first two years of Ferentz's career because they weren't 'his' players" thing that so many people try and use. The same people would sure as hell include them if they were 9 or 10 win seasons.

It's such a nebraksa thing to do.

I have to disagree. Not all programs are the same. Expectations are what rule the college football world. 9 win seasons in Nebraska get you fired after a few of them. In Ames they'd build a statue of you for it. So to put all programs on the same level in regards how to compare and gauge a coaches success just wouldn't be fair. Only one team wins it all every year out of 300 of em.
Programs are taken over at all sorts of different stages. When Tressel left OSU he left a pretty full cupboard. Same with Bielema when he left Wisky for AR. What's Frosts expectations in year 1 over there after the last couple years they've had? What are the expectations in year 2 for Jeff Brohm at Purdue? Shouldn't Harbaughs seat be getting a little warm based on what he's done?

If NF uses two TE sets and goes to a passing first offense with Fant and Hockenson taking heat of the WRs I’d say your 7-8 wins is about right.

Unfortunately he won’t, he’s going to keep running Young and IKM into brick walls 3 times in a row and hope Rastetter can get good hang time.

I agree we have to play to our strengths. It's the most simple thing about sports. If you have an advantage use it till they stop it. It's easy for us to do well when we have a dominant Oline and Shonn Greene to hand off to. That was a case of the personel matching up with the style. They've changed things up before back with Tate when all the RBs were hurt but that was due to necessity. Your right and your assumption of BF getting away from the same ole same ole predictable play calling to play to the strengths is probably a pipe dream on any kind of week to week basis. Due to stubburness, KF or whatever. If that's what they do then expect the inconsistent results that'll bring. I don't think this Oline will be good enough to dominate. At least not early in the year (I'd love to be wrong about that)

 

[hawkeyes87]

If NF uses two TE sets and goes to a passing first offense

NF? Who's that?

Holy shit is there another Ferentz on the staff I don't know about? Noooooooooo !

 

[Fryowa]

NF? Who's that?

Holy shit is there another Ferentz on the staff I don't know about? Noooooooooo !

Actually that wasn't the "NF" I was thinking of...

 

[SteveGarvey1]

You just stated the exact reason why tossing seasons out is bullshit. “Context.” Context is 100% a matter of individual perception, and perception has no place in stats. At all.

No one agrees on when, why, or for what reason you consider a season “valid.”

You literally could not have proven my point any better.

A win is a win and a loss is a loss. They all count no matter what.

If you're strictly talking statistics, you would be correct. And I concede the point of your post was strictly about statistical measure.

If you're talking about fans being allowed to use any reasonable form of judgement to judge the effectiveness of a coach, you would not be correct at all. I get that my point would be based on opinion only, but I would assert that if you had a hypothetical jury pool of 12 unbiased football fans with the goal of determining Kirk's effectiveness as a coach, they would take into consideration what Kirk inherited in 1999 unanimously.

 

[trj]

I really hate to do this, but Iowa had 3 losses by a touchdown or less in 2005 & 5 losses by a touchdown or less in 2010. Didn't do squat the next year in both cases.

It's works both ways. KF's teams have lots of close games, period. It's a certified quirk.

And then there was 2015 and to a lesser degree 2009......so what you are basically saying is who bleeping knows.

 

[Fryowa]

I would assert that if you had a hypothetical jury pool of 12 unbiased football fans with the goal of determining Kirk's effectiveness as a coach, they would take into consideration what Kirk inherited in 1999 unanimously.

That's the problem, though. There's no such thing as an unbiased fan. That group of 12 people would say a 1-10 season shouldn't be considered in KF's "body of work' because he inherited a mess. Now, that same 12 people would definitely think it should be included if he went 10-1. There's no objectivity.

You can't choose to ignore data you don't like and accept data that you feel is "fair" because there's no definition of what fair is. No one knows what Fry, or John Cooper, or Bob Stoops, or any other coach would have been able to do with that team.

 

[mopkins]

Iowa will likely play more ranked teams than that. Northwestern and Purdue are both possibilities. Minnesota and Nebraska could be if they have decent seasons, though I’m skeptical. Some places even have Iowa State in the preseason top 25. I’m doubtful, but it’s a possibility too.

I'll say no to purdue simply because their 2 games before they play Iowa are Ohio state and at Michigan state. They aren't getting out of there ranked.

NW plays Wisconsin and Notre dame right before rolling into kinnick so that's not good for them either.

 

[Fryowa]

I'll say no to purdue simply because their 2 games before they play Iowa are Ohio state and at Michigan state. They aren't getting out of there ranked.

I hadn’t thought of that. Nice catch.

 

[peerok]

Iowa will likely play more ranked teams than that. Northwestern and Purdue are both possibilities. Minnesota and Nebraska could be if they have decent seasons, though I’m skeptical. Some places even have Iowa State in the preseason top 25. I’m doubtful, but it’s a possibility too.

I wouldn't sleep on Maryland. They were playing pretty good football at the start of last year before a rash of injuries hit and they were down to like their fourth string QB. Plus they've had solid recruiting classes the past couple of years. I'm not predicting an east division title, but it wouldn't surprise me if Maryland surprised.

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

I'll say no to purdue simply because their 2 games before they play Iowa are Ohio state and at Michigan state. They aren't getting out of there ranked.

NW plays Wisconsin and Notre dame right before rolling into kinnick so that's not good for them either.

Not a bad point at all, but stranger things have happened. Let’s say Purdue is having a great season and beats one of those teams and loses to the other, but not by much? Still a possibility. Same goes for NW, a win over Wisconsin would surprise me. A win over Norte Dame wouldn’t. ND is perrenially overrated in my eyes at this point. If this is one of those 8-5 Notre Dame Seasons NW is the favorite in my eyes. Jelly has been pretty consistently inconsistent at Notre Dame so far. They’ve shown some life since the NCAA sanctions, but also that 2016 season. Sort of like some stretches under Kirk.

 

[SteveGarvey1]

That's the problem, though. There's no such thing as an unbiased fan. That group of 12 people would say a 1-10 season shouldn't be considered in KF's "body of work' because he inherited a mess. Now, that same 12 people would definitely think it should be included if he went 10-1. There's no objectivity.

You can't choose to ignore data you don't like and accept data that you feel is "fair" because there's no definition of what fair is. No one knows what Fry, or John Cooper, or Bob Stoops, or any other coach would have been able to do with that team.

Do you allow yourself to give opinions? If so, in your opinion, did Kirk inherit a worse situation in 1999 than Urban did when he took over at OSU? Would you say Urban had more in place to put together a better record his first two seasons than Kirk did?

 

[Fryowa]

Do you allow yourself to give opinions? If so, in your opinion, did Kirk inherit a worse situation in 1999 than Urban did when he took over at OSU? Would you say Urban had more in place to put together a better record his first two seasons than Kirk did?

Absolutely. Yes to both of your questions.

However, when talking about his win percentage or record, I count every game.

If we don't, do we throw out the second and third years as well because none of his starters were his recruits?

How about disregarding Urban Meyer's first couple years because he inherited a successful team that was already set up? OSU would say hell no.

See how that muddys the water? I get your point and I agree that all situations are different. But you can't just wipe out 10 losses and 1 win because you think it fits the situation. There are plenty of difficult situations in sports, not just first-year head coaching jobs. Do we cherry pick all of those, and if so what's the criteria? At the end of the day a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

I still maintain that (if you're being truly honest) you would not toss out Kirk's first year had it been 10-1. That right there is the fatal flaw in your argument.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I wouldn't sleep on Maryland. They were playing pretty good football at the start of last year before a rash of injuries hit and they were down to like their fourth string QB. Plus they've had solid recruiting classes the past couple of years. I'm not predicting an east division title, but it wouldn't surprise me if Maryland surprised.

Yeah they were kinda primed to do some good things last yr till all their QBs got hurt amongst other injuries. They've torn it up recruiting wise the last couple of years now. If that staff can coach at all one would think they'd be significantly better...