Line on Iowa 7.5 Over/Under

homes said:
For the 15th year in a row. It's like being a weatherman in Southern California. Today, the same as yesterday. Tomorrow, the same as today. Next year, the same. The same. The same. It's always the same.
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Lol,

Let’s recruit the same level of three star players, instill the same antiquated ball control offense and get hyped up for another 7-5 KF season. Years from now college football fans will be sitting around the cooler talking about all the great 7-5, third place western division seasons Iowa had. Sigh :(

With the scheduling advantage we have this upcoming season a 7-5 season would be tragic and comical at the same time.
 
Fryowa said:
Absolutely. Yes to both of your questions.

However, when talking about his win percentage or record, I count every game.

If we don't, do we throw out the second and third years as well because none of his starters were his recruits?

How about disregarding Urban Meyer's first couple years because he inherited a successful team that was already set up? OSU would say hell no.

See how that muddys the water? I get your point and I agree that all situations are different. But you can't just wipe out 10 losses and 1 win because you think it fits the situation. There are plenty of difficult situations in sports, not just first-year head coaching jobs. Do we cherry pick all of those, and if so what's the criteria? At the end of the day a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

I still maintain that (if you're being truly honest) you would not toss out Kirk's first year had it been 10-1. That right there is the fatal flaw in your argument.
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No I wouldn't have thrown it out had we been 10-1, but the problem is, there's no way in hell any coach would have been 10-1 with the lack of talent we had. Urban, Saban, none of those guys would have gotten us even close to that, even if they had brought some of their own players in. It's subjective, yes, but it's using informed judgement.

One of the problems you run into with just using statistics in this argument is that stats can show a technical truth but can be misleading. Here are some examples:

A pitchers wins and losses. A pitcher can have a lot of wins while not being that great because he gets a lot of support from the bats. Or, conversely, he can not win many games because he gets no support from the hitters.

Presidents of both parties have touted unemployment figures when it makes them look good. But it doesn't take into account adults who have left the labor force. So, an unemployment figure of 5% can technically be correct but when you account for people who've given up looking for work it can be 11-12%.

Reagan inherited a terrible economy from J. Carter and Obama took over a lousy one from G.W. Bush. Would it have been fair to judge Reagan in '81 or Obama in '09 as to their handling of the economy based on stats like GDP?
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
No I wouldn't have thrown it out had we been 10-1
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Crux of the matter right there.

Because you’re changing stats based on your own opinion which is different than everyone else’s.

Look, context and opinion are fine for water cooler discussions. The world would be boring without it. You can put as big an asterisk as you want on it but that season existed and is in the books.

This is why you’d probably make a good salesman or politician and I wouldn’t.
 
Fryowa said:
Crux of the matter right there.

Because you’re changing stats based on your own opinion which is different than everyone else’s.

Look, context and opinion are fine for water cooler discussions. The world would be boring without it. You can put as big an asterisk as you want on it but that season existed and is in the books.

This is why you’d probably make a good salesman or politician and I wouldn’t.
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We're running in circles talking about two different things really. Look, I took grad statistics and understand what you're saying. Yet since you didn't address my examples of misleading statistics I'll conclude that you realize I have a point.

And if I was a politician in respect to this issue, I'd have to be called Honest Abe.
 
Any way you slice it, KF's coaching record is just that. A matter of record. We can play the "it's, buts, candy and nuts" game all day long. Once you start to subjectively look at seasons or games, he could have a lot more wins or a lot more losses. Depending on how you wanted to look at it.
 
Kirks legacy will mirror his final years at Iowa. His first couple of years do not matter. I assume he will leave Iowa with an average or 7-8 wins a season. Definitely has not been consistent.
 
All well and good. We talk about KF's record in every possible detail, some of which is "fake news." But, I am a lot more interested in what Iowa's record will be next year, and the next, and the next. What has happened in the past has almost no relationship to next year, or the years that follow. If we win 12 regular season games in 2018, I really won't even remember the past, nor do I need to. But, we can continue our dialogue on which pieces of data we should analyze. Yawn.
 
HuckFinn said:
All well and good. We talk about KF's record in every possible detail, some of which is "fake news." But, I am a lot more interested in what Iowa's record will be next year, and the next, and the next. What has happened in the past has almost no relationship to next year, or the years that follow. If we win 12 regular season games in 2018, I really won't even remember the past, nor do I need to. But, we can continue our dialogue on which pieces of data we should analyze. Yawn.
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HuckFinn said:
All well and good. We talk about KF's record in every possible detail, some of which is "fake news." But, I am a lot more interested in what Iowa's record will be next year, and the next, and the next. What has happened in the past has almost no relationship to next year, or the years that follow. If we win 12 regular season games in 2018, I really won't even remember the past, nor do I need to. But, we can continue our dialogue on which pieces of data we should analyze. Yawn.
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“Fake news,” huh?

Why don’t you enlighten us on what the fake news is?
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
We're running in circles talking about two different things really. Look, I took grad statistics and understand what you're saying. Yet since you didn't address my examples of misleading statistics I'll conclude that you realize I have a point.

And if I was a politician in respect to this issue, I'd have to be called Honest Abe.
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A statistician would not throw out outliers only on one end. Throw out Kirk's worst and best seasons as outliers.
 
NoBeer said:
A statistician would not throw out outliers only on one end. Throw out Kirk's worst and best seasons as outliers.
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Eliminating his 2 worst seasons and 2 best seasons:

KF averages 7.73 wins overall and 4.46 wins in B1G play. Pretty much what you'd expect from an average coach.

To put this into perspective, if you do the same thing for Mark Dantonio, Pat Fitzgerald, Wisky since Alvarez retired, and Nebraska since Osborne retired:

Dantonio averages 9.42 wins overall and 5.71 wins in B1G play.

Fitz averages 7.25 wins overall and 4 wins in B1G play.

Wisky averages 10.25 wins overall and 6.12 wins in B1G play.

Nebby averages 8.68 wins overall.
 
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A few people have asserted that no subjectivity should be allowed in determining how good a coach has been. In a perfect world, it would be nice if that was the case.

In the real world, subjectivity is almost always used. Boosters, fan bases, ADs, ESPN College Game Day talking heads. They all use it when declaring how good a coach is.

Subjectivity is used in determining whether to hire, retain or fire a coach. Subjectivity was used in firing Lickliter after three seasons when, if they used a statistical approach, they might have let him coach a few more years since three years is hardly an adequate sample size to determine effectiveness.

Had Kirk taken over a strong program from Hayden full of great players in '99 and he would have gone, say 10-1 and 9-2 his first two seasons, yet had the same career record he has now, I guarantee the haters would be screaming from the highest hills that the first two seasons should be thrown out because he had inherited such great players.
 
HuckFinn said:
I sincerely apologize for stating an opinion with which you find fault. (There, that would be fake news.)
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For an elderly guy such as yourself, one would think you'd have a better response than, "Because I said so."

Especially with all your time sitting on your deck in Cedar Key, FL.
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
Had Kirk taken over a strong program from Hayden full of great players in '99 and he would have gone, say 10-1 and 9-2 his first two seasons, yet had the same career record he has now, I guarantee the haters would be screaming from the highest hills that the first two seasons should be thrown out because he had inherited such great players.
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I wouldn't, mostly because I think they should all count.

And I'm not a Daddy Ferentz hater. I don't think there's a better available option right now.

I am however a Brain Ferentz "hater" in the sense that he's not qualified to be a head coach, and he will soon be in charge of my favorite sports team strictly because his dad wan'ts him to take over the family business.
 
Fryowa said:
For an elderly guy such as yourself, one would think you'd have a better response than, "Because I said so."

Especially with all your time sitting on your deck in Cedar Key, FL.
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Age is just a number, Fry! Cedar Key is over for 2018, but now I have a month in northern Ontario fishing walleyes with family and friends, pheasant hunting in S. Dakota in November, season football and bb ticks at Iowa, plus all of Iowa's away football games except PSU, since its a pain in the ass and another year of season ticks for the Broadway Series in Milwaukee. Busy, Busy. OH, yeah. Got to follow my 7 grandkids around in their activities and manage 460 acres of farmland in Iowa. How ya doin?
 
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