Line on Iowa 7.5 Over/Under

[homes]

Could be worse. Could be ISU's the last ten seasons which would be what, 3.5?

Agree, it's just that the prognosticators always seem to have Iowa around the 7.5 mark. It's easy, and fits the general impression of Iowa football around the country, good but not great. It doesn't really matter, but I guess it does beat the alternative that is ISU. Personally, I'd take the over this year.

 

[Motigerhawk]

Under

Too much to replace. Another year of suspect WRs. Unproven RBs. An OC that hasnt gotten far enough away from Daddys playbook.

We lost a lot of leaders on defense. Need that.

 

[trj]

We will lose at PSU. I think we will start 3-0, and then upset WI. Its time. I don't see a certain loss in the remaining 8 games, but would not be shocked by a couple of losses. So, I will go with 9-3.

Give me the over. Strictly on how the schedule sets up. My logic falls in line with Huckfinn. The caveat being the Iowa St. game. That game will be a dogfight, win it and the schedule sets up nice after that.

I hate that the Iowa St. game has become the litmus test on how the Iowa season will play out, but if they lose that, we are looking at a 6 or 7 win season.

 

[AreWeThereYet]

Just to add to the discussion, I want to look at turning close losses into wins. Last year we lost 3 games against top 20, 10 win teams by one possession. Just a handful of plays go our way and we had a 10-3 season ourselves, but that's what ifs. Looking at Iowa history, however, there is a pattern of a season of close losses preceding a successful one.

In 2001, 4 of 5 losses came by one possession, and the 5th was by 9 to a Joe Tiller-led Purdue team. In 2002, we convert those tight games, going 3-1 instead.

In 2008, all 4 losses came by a total of 12 points, going an overall 2-4 in one possession games. The following year, we go 4-2 in those games en route to an Orange Bowl win.

In 2014, we go 3-4 in close games including some snoozer wins over UNI and Ball State, and losing the final 3. In 2015, again we reverse that trend, going 5-1, the only loss being the B1GCCG.

These numbers are hardly concrete or predictive, but with such a young team last year that got a lot of experience and showed flashes of brilliance, I'd argue that the experience of losing close games may be key in learning how to win them this coming season.

I really hate to do this, but Iowa had 3 losses by a touchdown or less in 2005 & 5 losses by a touchdown or less in 2010. Didn't do squat the next year in both cases.

It's works both ways. KF's teams have lots of close games, period. It's a certified quirk.

 

[BVHawk95]

I really hate to do this, but Iowa had 3 losses by a touchdown or less in 2005 & 5 losses by a touchdown or less in 2010. Didn't do squat the next year in both cases.

It's works both ways. KF's teams have lots of close games, period. It's a certified quirk.

Oh I realize that, I was just noting something I've observed. I'd be interested to know how young each of those teams were compared to the ones I listed and to 2017-18.

 

[mopkins]

I cant get a read on this season coming up at all. Should be solid at DLine, TE and QB. OL should be fine but a new center will be tough. Huge questions at LB, RB, WR, DB.

Iowa will play 2 ranked teams all year...Wisconsin and penn state. They will probably be favored in all the rest except maybe at Purdue.

Put me down for the over, but not with much confidence

 

[Hawknigh]

Hard to get too excited about 7.5 with this schedule. And 7.5 means anything from 6 to 9. I don't think a 6 win season will be very well received.

Will this team be better than last year? Or is this just a reflection of the schedule?

 

[thetrza]

Easiest money you will ever make, Iowa at 20,000 to one odds to win the National Championship. Don't forget to send me part of your winnings this January!

 

[NCHawker]

Iowa always has one position that is lacking that costs a game or two. We say 'if only the OLine..." or If only the running back position, or if only the WR.

That's Iowa Football

 

[earlkoppelman]

Agree, it's just that the prognosticators always seem to have Iowa around the 7.5 mark. It's easy, and fits the general impression of Iowa football around the country, good but not great. It doesn't really matter, but I guess it does beat the alternative that is ISU. Personally, I'd take the over this year.

7 and 6 .Too many THIN areas.

 

[1hawkeye1]

8-4 . Easier schedule

 

[hawkeyes87]

Iowa always has one position that is lacking that costs a game or two. We say 'if only the OLine..." or If only the running back position, or if only the WR.

That's Iowa Football

You forgot "if only the coach / coaching staff"

 

[hawkeyes87]

Under, by a hair:

4-0 vs non-con & ILL (loss to Northern Illinois would not be a huge shock, though)
0-2 vs PSU, WI
3-3 vs the rest

7-5. Yawn.

 

[Wizard_Hawk]

Over.

1. Schedule. No OSU, UM, or MSU and open with 4 straight at home.
2. Stanley has a full season under his belt. After some bumps in '17, he should be ready to take the next step.
3. DL is stacked. Nelson, Epenesa, Reiff, Latt, Hesse and newcomer Nixon. Iowa should have a very good rotation.
4. Experienced group at WR/TE.

I think 9-10 wins isn't out of the question

 

[Fryowa]

Not too far off, but you are selling them a bit short. Starting in 2000 (when they began playing 12-game regular seasons), here are KF's regular season wins by season:
2000 - 3
2001 - 6
2002 - 11
2003 - 9
2004 - 9
2005 - 7
2006 - 6
2007 - 6
2008 - 8
2009 - 10
2010 - 7
2011 - 7
2012 - 4
2013 - 8
2014 - 7
2015 -12
2016 - 8
2017 - 7

Mean 7.5 per season, median 7, mode 7
Seasons with <6 wins: 2
Seasons with 6 wins: 3
Seasons with 7 wins: 5
Seasons with 8 or more wins: 8

So 8 out of 19 seasons have been 6-6 or 7-5. However, 8 out of 19 seasons have better than that.

I do get your point and I know this will ruffle feathers...

...but I just love it when people exclude bad seasons like 1999. I also see that you said it was because they didn't play 12 games, but come on. You'd definitely include it if Ferentz went 10-1 that year.

A person can't cherry pick data like that. What makes it worse in this case is where do you stop? Is the rule of thumb that you throw out every head coach's first year? Or do you throw out the first three due to them not having their "own" recruits on the field? What if they go 10-2 their first year but 1-11 their second year? Do we give them a pass?
Like I said I know you qualified it being that there were only 11 games. But you still have to include everything, even if it's an average.

Urban Meyer went 24-2 his first two years at OSU, do we throw those out? Fans would say obviously not, non-fans would say, "Of course he won, it's Ohio State."

How'bout Nick Saban? He went 7-6 his first year, does he get to toss those out?

Dabo Swinney? He coached a partial year his first season but only lost one conference game. Toss those?

I know this is a lot of boring rhetoric but I think you can see what I mean. There are a million different scenarios out there and when it comes to statistics you can't include/exclude based on subjective reasons that no one will agree on. You either win or lose and you have to include all of them. Every head football coach in history has had a first year.

 

[eledmonster]

I'll go, a little over. Nothing special, 8-4 on the regular season. Bowl game? crap shoot.

 

[Ree4]

Over - 10 wins minimum, I think our offense will be much improved and our defense won't drop off as much as people think. Our schedule strength shouldn't be in the top 5 like it was last year.

Our schedule was absolutely brutal last year and we were very close in almost every game.

 

[NCHawker]

 

[JoeyLabasForPresident]

I cant get a read on this season coming up at all. Should be solid at DLine, TE and QB. OL should be fine but a new center will be tough. Huge questions at LB, RB, WR, DB.

Iowa will play 2 ranked teams all year...Wisconsin and penn state. They will probably be favored in all the rest except maybe at Purdue.

Put me down for the over, but not with much confidence

Iowa will likely play more ranked teams than that. Northwestern and Purdue are both possibilities. Minnesota and Nebraska could be if they have decent seasons, though I’m skeptical. Some places even have Iowa State in the preseason top 25. I’m doubtful, but it’s a possibility too.

 

[CP87]

I do get your point and I know this will ruffle feathers...

...but I just love it when people exclude bad seasons like 1999. I also see that you said it was because they didn't play 12 games, but come on. You'd definitely include it if Ferentz went 10-1 that year.

A person can't cherry pick data like that. What makes it worse in this case is where do you stop? Is the rule of thumb that you throw out every head coach's first year? Or do you throw out the first three due to them not having their "own" recruits on the field? What if they go 10-2 their first year but 1-11 their second year? Do we give them a pass?
Like I said I know you qualified it being that there were only 11 games. But you still have to include everything, even if it's an average.

Urban Meyer went 24-2 his first two years at OSU, do we throw those out? Fans would say obviously not, non-fans would say, "Of course he won, it's Ohio State."

How'bout Nick Saban? He went 7-6 his first year, does he get to toss those out?

Dabo Swinney? He coached a partial year his first season but only lost one conference game. Toss those?

I know this is a lot of boring rhetoric but I think you can see what I mean. There are a million different scenarios out there and when it comes to statistics you can't include/exclude based on subjective reasons that no one will agree on. You either win or lose and you have to include all of them. Every head football coach in history has had a first year.

I loved having a legit reason (11-game season) to exclude year 1, I'll be honest. The overall story doesn't change if he include that year though, it is just tacking one bad year onto the 18 we were already considering. So including that year:
8 out of 19 years with 6 or 7 wins.
8 out of 19 years with 8 or more wins.
3 out of 19 years with <6 wins

Compared to what I posted before, that doesn't change my view of it at all.