As always, it will be an interesting game. I haven't broken down a game since last season and I'm kind of itching to do so... so here's my take in early August:
Best Match Up To Watch: King and Mabin vs Lazard
ISU's receiving corp, unlike the last couple years, takes a pretty steep drop off after Lazard. Dondre Daley is the guy who will line up opposite Lazard and he was ISU's 5th leading receiver last season. That's a big drop off. Matt Campbell has already made it clear that they are going to line Lazard up all over the field in order to try and create mismatches and let him make plays. Desmond King or not, Lazard is a match-up nightmare at 6'5'' 223 lbs. Plus Iowa typically likes to keep King on one side of the field and Mabin on the other. I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of King vs Lazard in this game because the tape proves it isn't wise to test Desmond. Mabin will likely be the guy who needs to step up, and he has the experience and ability to do so. I'm sure Lazard will get his, but if Mabin can limit him to average or below average numbers it will be a huge help for Iowa in this game.
Keys to winning for both teams:
Iowa's offense - Get the ground game going. As always, it's that simple. Iowa's offensive line should be more than capable of handling the ISU defensive front. Demond Tucker is a pretty good player, but Sean Welsh is better and James Daniels is a year older. They should be able to limit his impact on the inside, and ISU's outside pass rushers are weak. Hopefully CJ will be 100% healthy. His play making ability with his legs was huge in last year's game, and it could play a huge role in this one as well because you know Campbell and Company will be selling out to stop Iowa's traditional rushing attack. This is like clock work saying this, but if Iowa can establish the run CJ will make them pay with the play action pass. He's deadly accurate when he needs to be as he showed in last years game, and he has the targets to in the WR corp to make them pay. Vandeberg is a proven commodity. McCarron is capable. Jay Scheel and Jerminic Smith will be looking to establish themselves. Since Scheel is an Iowa boy it would be awesome to see him connect for a deep TD over the top and set Kinnick on fire early on in this game.
Iowa's defense: Beat up Joel Lanning. Eat up that weak and inexperienced offensive line. Jaleel Johnson should be a man among boys on the interior. I think Nelson and Hesse are capable of providing a spark from the outside, but I won't be expecting a whole lot of play making from whomever is matched up with Campos. I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa is able to get to Lanning at will. Their offensive line is that weak. If they happen to be hanging on by a thread then mix in some blitz packages and confuse them. I don't believe Warren will have an impact at all in this game because they won't be able to get a push up front. Iowa's defense is too strong against the run. ISU's best hope is getting some big plays out of their receivers so, like I said before, whomever is on Lazard is going to need to bring their A game.
ISU offense: Try to establish the run with both Warren and Lanning. Get the read option game going. Do whatever you can to open things up a bit for the receivers down the field and then try to get the ball to them to make plays. It's likely that ISU will have a game plan in place that they'll shift to if the run game isn't working. They'll get Lazard and Ryen in motion and move them around the field to try and get them into space. It will most likely be short routes and maybe a few trick plays because their offensive line won't be giving Lanning a lot of time to survey the field. Whatever they do they need to keep the game plan simple because Lanning is not a bright dude and if things get complicated he'll start to make mistakes.
ISU defense: Sell out to stop the run and get to CJ. Make Iowa's receivers beat you. I don't think ISU's defensive backfield is near as good as it seems like most ISU fans do, but that doesn't matter. You still have to sell out to stop the run and hope your dbacks can contain the receivers and even make one or two game changing plays. Tackling, tackling, and more tackling will be key for these guys. They've flat out sucked at tackling for awhile now. If I'm Matt Campbell that's the first thing I would have focused on in camp. Good, solid, fundamental tackling drills. The Cyclones give up so many big plays because they can't tackle. CJ had a highlight reel day against them last year because they couldn't tackle him.
Prediction: I don't think Iowa's offense will light the world on fire in this game, but I think they'll do more than enough to win by double digits. I predict the score will be something like 24-10 or 27-10. Iowa's defense will slam the door shut on the ISU offense. They'll create a couple big plays that will put Iowa in a position to score. Lazard might get in the endzone once, but it won't be enough to matter. I think Warren will held under 100 yards. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Lanning is their leading rusher. Like usual, I think the game will be much more one sided than it appears on the scoreboard. Iowa will end up with 200+ more yards than ISU does on offense, but because they eat away at the clock and settle for a FG or punt at times the scoreboard won't reflect the dominance.
