I think you're missing my point, Iowa has had their hands full with this team that can't even win enough games to go to a bowl. Do the math if we're a 7 win team and their a 2 -5 win team we should beat them every time. We've been favored by double digit numbers many times and either got beat or was lucky in winning.
I was clearly addressing the point you made about "Big 10 title contending" Iowa teams losing to ISU, which wasn't accurate.
So now it's about citing Vegas point spreads as the best indicator or how a team will or can perform? Look at KF's record in games the last 10 years where Iowa is a double digit favorite. It's really bad compared to OSU, Wisconsin, MSU, etc. Apparently Vegas hasn't been paying attention to KF's style, and they are bad at their job??? OR they know how to get even money on both sides with spreads that aren't indicative of how the game may actually go. I'm going to lean towards the latter when it comes to vegas spreads.
Going back to 2000 with McCarney as coach, ISU has gone to 8 bowl games, and holds a 8-7 edge in the series.
ISU is 6-2 vs Iowa in years they go to a bowl game.
The record of the 8 Iowa teams that ISU beat?
3-7, 7-5, 11-2, 7-5,
6-6, 7-6, 4-8,
7-6
ISU bowl teams typically beat AT BEST 6 or 7 win Iowa teams.
Bolded/underlined Iowa records when ISU didn't go to a bowl yet still won.
Even when ISU wins, they typically have to gut out a close victory in a game between teams of somewhat evenly matched records by seasons end.
In the 7 years that ISU did not go to a bowl, the Clones are 2-5 vs Iowa.
One win came vs Iowa when they did not go to a bowl either(by 2 points). The other was last year(by 3 points).
The margins of victory for Iowa in their 7 wins?
19, 7, 10, 12, 32, 28, 6.
The 7 and 32 point wins came vs ISU bowl teams in Ames.
That leaves only 1 Iowa win by single digits over a bad ISU team. The rest of Iowa's wins were moderate to decisive victories, and the 6 point win was a whole lot of domination for 3 qtrs, before the game nearly slipped away late.
Back to the point at hand. If Iowa is really good/nationally relevant, they'll likely handle ISU pretty easily on the scoreboard. If Iowa and ISU are both medicore, ISU likely wins a close one. If ISU sucks, and Iowa is mediocre-ish at worst, Iowa likely wins by about 7-14 points.