This is a very legit reason to be leery of change, especially with Barta running the department.
But just because we were burned once before, doesn't mean it's 100% going to happen again. Or 50/50, or 75/25. It's just a risk you take.
My mind thinks this way. With the program Iowa has right now, facilities, revenue, stadium, and conference, I think just about any coach could come in here and average 7 wins a year. Our OOC schedule is a cake walk, except KF manages to lose at least one of those games 16/18 seasons. While I don't know if we'd ever average 10 win years, I think someone like Brett B could walk in day one and we'd win 9 game due to attitude and change of schemes.
This is Iowa, and we would be prone to having off years, like MSU is having right now. You have a miss in recruiting, you have great assistants leave, etc and those things are tough to overcome.
but to believe in the idea that things could always be worse seems to be defeatist. Again, it doesn't help with Barta.