Bubble watch

[PCHawk]

Northwestern losing keeps the dream of a 3 seed alive. Only need 4 games to go just right now. I think the loser of that game regardless of who it was will end up behind us if they lose their last game.

 

[PCHawk]

If Minnesota loses tonight I'm almost positive the worst we can do is the 7 seed. That's huge because if we are the 8 seed we would almost for sure have to beat Purdue to get in the tournament.

 

[NorthKCHawk]

Curious what you think here. You have two choices for a coach. One went to their first sweet 16 at a mid major last year. The other is consistently getting 7 or better seeds but has never made the sweet 16. Which coach do you think gives us the better chance to make a sweet 16? I think it's easily the 2nd choice. I think a lot of people on here think it's the first choice.

Its not that simple. As this thread has demonstrated, there is a shit ton of luck that goes into the NCAA tourney. I am not basing my hiring decision on two games. Any midmajor can beat any high major on any given night. That fact alone is not enough for me to make a decision.

I will remind everyone that Tood Lichlighter made two sweet 16s. Want him back?

As Fry is famous for saying, every coaching hire is a huge gamble. There is just no way to know whether that coach who had some success at a lower level will be great, good, or terrible. Odds favor the latter. Fran has been a very good coach his entire career, including at Iowa. Given the team he has coming back and recruits coming in, I would play this string out a couple more years and see if he can break through.

 

[BigD]

Fran sucked at coaching the big 10 tournament until he won it. The only way we won it tho is because he constantly fields a team capable of winning it. He didn't luck into a good run when we won it. He just finally dodged bad luck and caught a couple breaks (which you always need).

You say we are only the spoiler? That's way too extreme. We had one year where we were top 10 and it fell apart once Patrick hot cancer. We had another where we got to top 3 and still had a chance at the big 10 title with a few games left in the season. We had another year where we were top 5 most of the year and was good enough to win the big 10 in any year over the last decade exact that year where there ended up being two 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Could we always do better? Of course. But Iowa is far from the spoiler.

Iowa fans have to give Fran credit for winning that BTT championship. That was a great win and I had hoped it was the beginning of a Fran legacy. Time will tell and I hope it will be soon.

I actually recently said I am ok with Fran staying around as he has done a good job. Finding anyone who would do better to replace him would be challenging.

Since the 80’s we have only had one team that made a descent run in March. That was under Mr. Davis’s first season at Iowa and he did it with George’s recruits.

Two long runs in March over the last 45 years. That’s not good by anyone’s standards. This isn’t just a Fran thing in Iowa basketball. It wouldn’t be fair to lay it at his feet.

The fair question I think is do we just accept our station in life and hang in there with Fran and hope for the best? Fran has a brand of basketball that is entertaining and is one large step up from Lickliter. Or do we want to roll the dice and move on? I am ok with hanging in there with Fran but is there a time limit he should be given to show he can be successful during March Madness? Does anyone want to jettison Fran and possibly go back to another Lickliter? I don’t think anyone wants to go through that again. I know I don’t. Still it would be nice to get another deep run in March madness. It’s exciting and fun to experience.

I am not calling for Fran’s head at this point but at what point do we as a fan base start thinking MAYBE it’s time to start considering it? I mean at year thirty at Iowa if we don’t have at least one deep run by Fran do we pull the plug. I know , I know thirty years is ridiculous and I just through that out there for thought. Is there a reasonable time table? What would it be?

 

[ChosenChildren]

I criticized Fran several weeks ago and dismissed the prospects of this team.

I was wrong.

There is plenty of talent on this year's team. Let's see what happens during the rest of the year. This is a good time of the year to be playing your best basketball.

A win Sunday against a good Illinois team would be a great step.

 

[InGoodCo]

Iowa fans have to give Fran credit for winning that BTT championship. That was a great win and I had hoped it was the beginning of a Fran legacy. Time will tell and I hope it will be soon.

I actually recently said I am ok with Fran staying around as he has done a good job. Finding anyone who would do better to replace him would be challenging.

Since the 80’s we have only had one team that made a descent run in March. That was under Mr. Davis’s first season at Iowa and he did it with George’s recruits.

Two long runs in March over the last 45 years. That’s not good by anyone’s standards. This isn’t just a Fran thing in Iowa basketball. It wouldn’t be fair to lay it at his feet.

The fair question I think is do we just accept our station in life and hang in there with Fran and hope for the best? Fran has a brand of basketball that is entertaining and is one large step up from Lickliter. Or do we want to roll the dice and move on? I am ok with hanging in there with Fran but is there a time limit he should be given to show he can be successful during March Madness? Does anyone want to jettison Fran and possibly go back to another Lickliter? I don’t think anyone wants to go through that again. I know I don’t. Still it would be nice to get another deep run in March madness. It’s exciting and fun to experience.

I am not calling for Fran’s head at this point but at what point do we as a fan base start thinking MAYBE it’s time to start considering it? I mean at year thirty at Iowa if we don’t have at least one deep run by Fran do we pull the plug. I know , I know thirty years is ridiculous and I just through that out there for thought. Is there a reasonable time table? What would it be?

There's no time table for a coach that routinely get's Iowa to the NCAA tournament. You keep those guys around as long as they want to remain coaching in our 1/3rd full arena

 

[PCHawk]

Iowa fans have to give Fran credit for winning that BTT championship. That was a great win and I had hoped it was the beginning of a Fran legacy. Time will tell and I hope it will be soon.

I actually recently said I am ok with Fran staying around as he has done a good job. Finding anyone who would do better to replace him would be challenging.

Since the 80’s we have only had one team that made a descent run in March. That was under Mr. Davis’s first season at Iowa and he did it with George’s recruits.

Two long runs in March over the last 45 years. That’s not good by anyone’s standards. This isn’t just a Fran thing in Iowa basketball. It wouldn’t be fair to lay it at his feet.

The fair question I think is do we just accept our station in life and hang in there with Fran and hope for the best? Fran has a brand of basketball that is entertaining and is one large step up from Lickliter. Or do we want to roll the dice and move on? I am ok with hanging in there with Fran but is there a time limit he should be given to show he can be successful during March Madness? Does anyone want to jettison Fran and possibly go back to another Lickliter? I don’t think anyone wants to go through that again. I know I don’t. Still it would be nice to get another deep run in March madness. It’s exciting and fun to experience.

I am not calling for Fran’s head at this point but at what point do we as a fan base start thinking MAYBE it’s time to start considering it? I mean at year thirty at Iowa if we don’t have at least one deep run by Fran do we pull the plug. I know , I know thirty years is ridiculous and I just through that out there for thought. Is there a reasonable time table? What would it be?

The good thing about the "How long do we wait" question is Fran's age. I can't see any way he's here for even 10 more years. Even if he never makes the sweet 16 during that time, as long as he keeps putting Iowa into the tournament with good seeds, we are going to be on solid footing for hiring a new coach. I personally think if Fran keeps getting 2 seeds and 5 seeds, sweet 16s won't be an issue. He just needs that first one so the team can play more freely.

 

[Teddy]

Fran has probably 4 more years at Iowa. Outstanding recruiting classes for 3 consecutive years. I think he either goes when the Freeman/Harding/Pr and Ladji or maybe the next year

 

[99topdawg]

Updated Lunardi bracketology with weekend schedules. Another thing we have to take into consideration is teams that wouldn't get to the NCAA tournament that win their conference tournament from a multi-bid conferences. Each time that happens, a bubble team will get bumped, which means we're not necessarily the 3rd team out. Gotta win and hope the favorites win their conference tournaments.

 

[InGoodCo]

Updated Lunardi bracketology with weekend schedules. Another thing we have to take into consideration is teams that wouldn't get to the NCAA tournament that win their conference tournament from a multi-bid conferences. Each time that happens, a bubble team will get bumped, which means we're not necessarily the 3rd team out. Gotta win and hope the favorites win their conference tournaments.

View attachment 10733

Win and it won't matter - there are also going to be some spots that open up when previously thought AQ's DON'T win their conference tournament. Those previously thought AQ's will be bounced in the one bid leagues, which opens a spot for the next 4 in. I think as it stands today, if there were no more games, Iowa is in. Put their resume up against almost any of those teams and Iowa is likely in....but, today isn't the end of the season, there is another game to play and conference tourneys. Win is all Iowa needs to do. They could still get a double bye here and if that's the case, the team they play in the BTT will likely be pretty highly NET rated and they could lose that game and still get in. No lie, I feel like conference tournaments have very little to do with getting in and being left out, the committee pretty much has that all wrapped up heading into the weekend.

 

[99topdawg]

Those previously thought AQ's will be bounced in the one bid leagues, which opens a spot for the next 4 in.

Not sure I understand this sentence. If a previously thought AQ gets bounced from a one bid league, there will be a different team from that league replacing that AQ which won't open up a spot for a different team.

My apologies if I'm misreading your statement.

 

[Gander Hawk]

Win and it won't matter - there are also going to be some spots that open up when previously thought AQ's DON'T win their conference tournament. Those previously thought AQ's will be bounced in the one bid leagues, which opens a spot for the next 4 in. I think as it stands today, if there were no more games, Iowa is in. Put their resume up against almost any of those teams and Iowa is likely in....but, today isn't the end of the season, there is another game to play and conference tourneys. Win is all Iowa needs to do. They could still get a double bye here and if that's the case, the team they play in the BTT will likely be pretty highly NET rated and they could lose that game and still get in. No lie, I feel like conference tournaments have very little to do with getting in and being left out, the committee pretty much has that all wrapped up heading into the weekend.

They definitely don't seem to affect seeding.

 

[pythagoras]

The Missouri Valley Conference tourney champ will be the only bid that conference gets. I will let you do the homework on why that is.

You're one of those mongoloids who thinks sub 20 win teams hovering around .500 or below conference records should still make the NCAA tournament aren't you? Maybe if Iowa and ISU weren't afraid to play Drake and UNI yearly still today they could have an additional Quad 1 win...oh wait they would just be another Q1 loss which currently stands at 3-8 for our Hawks. Definitely NCAA tournament deserving.

 

[trj]

You're one of those mongoloids who thinks sub 20 win teams hovering around .500 or below conference records should still make the NCAA tournament aren't you? Maybe if Iowa and ISU weren't afraid to play Drake and UNI yearly still today they could have an additional Quad 1 win...oh wait they would just be another Q1 loss which currently stands at 3-8 for our Hawks. Definitely NCAA tournament deserving.

GTFOH. Where did I say Drake didn’t deserve a bid? A mid-major deserving a bid and them not getting one happens quite a bit. This shit isn’t mutually exclusive. Indiana St. would have to lose in the championship game and there would be a slight chance the MVC gets two teams in…that’s it. Back away from the sauce for a minute and just look at it.

 

[PCHawk]

GTFOH. Where did I say Drake didn’t deserve a bid? A mid-major deserving a bid and them not getting one happens quite a bit. This shit isn’t mutually exclusive. Indiana St. would have to lose in the championship game and there would be a slight chance the MVC gets two teams in…that’s it. Back away from the sauce for a minute and just look at it.

Wait I thought Drake had a better chance of getting an at large bid than Indiana State? If that's right, wouldn't their best chance if getting 2 bids be if Drake lost to Indiana State?

 

[Northside Hawk]

I'm still leery even if we beat Illinois. The B1G is probably a six bid league this year. We kicked golden opportunities away in November and December. And losing three of four to the bottom two teams in the league is a NET killer.

On the positive side beating Sparty was massive. We need to be the biggest Hoosier fans in the world tomorrow. MSU is one of the teams were jockeying for both BTT seed and potential NCAA seed.

 

[PCHawk]

I'm still leery even if we beat Illinois. The B1G is probably a six bid league this year. We kicked golden opportunities away in November and December. And losing three of four to the bottom two teams in the league is a NET killer.

On the positive side beating Sparty was massive. We need to be the biggest Hoosier fans in the world tomorrow. MSU is one of the teams were jockeying for both BTT seed and potential NCAA seed.

Northwestern probably needs one more win to get in too. If they lose tonight they're in big trouble. Them losing also keeps the hope of a 3 seed alive for us.