And if both of those play out, Wisconsin plays Purdue and if they lose we finished tied with them and hold the tiebreaker. That puts us as the 3 seed in the conference tournament.
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- Thread starter PCHawk
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I agree with everything you're saying, but I still think his main point was the ncaa tournament is a crap shoot and anyone can lose. You prove your coaching ability over the course of a full season. Fran has proved to be good at minimum and considering how hard it is to get Iowa to this spot you could make an argument he's closer to great.Understood. Bill Self and Tom Izzo have had some very early bounces with some good teams as well. It can happen to the best of them. Its why they call it March madness.
That said, Fran has been coaching longer than Painter and has never made it out of the first round, despite having 12 appearances. Painter has also underachieved, but he has made an Elite 8. I think it is a false dichotomy to suggest that Fran's lack of tournament success is justified by Painter stubbing his toe here and there. Painter still has an overall winning record in the NCAA tourney and has come a game from the Final Four.
Fran's unimpressive tournament record speaks for itself. There are certainly more apt comparisons out there than Painter. In any event, I remain optimistic than Fran has built a foundation of success at Iowa, and Fran is due for a tourney run in the next few years. All slot machines pay off eventually, right?
As far as an entire career with no sweet 16s goes. Most of that career was at small schools that over achieved just to get into the tournament. If Fran was a blue blood or had any luck go his way at Iowa, he'd already have some sweet 16s.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
Um, sorry to nitpick, but he has been at Iowa longer than his three other small school stints combined. He also got into the tourney with those schools.
I would agree with your take that you cannot judge a coach's success in a season by looking at just how they fare in the tourney. Painter and Purdue had an amazing season last year and just stubbed the toe against a team that played out of their minds. It is a crapshoot for sure. OK teams get hot and go further than they should and good teams just have a bad game. Its why the NBA crowns a true champion and not just who got hot for a few games at the right time. I get all that.
That all said, it is fair to criticize a coach for lack of success when you have two decades of coaching and the majority of those years at a major conference program. At some point, its not just bad luck, its just who they are. You don't judge a coach by one season, but 14? You can judge. Fran is an above-average coach in most respects. I like him and hope he retires at Iowa several years down the road. But, until he breaks through to the Sweet 16 or beyond, he will be viewed fairly as a coach who does not coach well during the pinnacle of college basketball--the NCAA tournament.
I'm not going to judge him at all for not making sweet 16s at his past schools. If he came from a bigger school than he would deserve criticism for those years too. I think he deserves to be critiqued for only the last 10 years or so as far as a true judge on how he does with a tournament team that actually has the ability to compete.
Clearly still not good. But it's a smaller, more fair body of work. I just don't buy that a coach can be good during the regular season, pretty good in pre season tournaments, decent in the big 10 tournament, but doesn't know how to coach in the NCAA tournament. That just doesn't make sense to me.
BigD
Well-Known Member
Very well said. I am not going to beat a dead horse here as I have been very clear on this subject. It’s easy to see certain mindsets from fan bases. Sometimes fans get trapped into the idea of “Wow next year or the year after that we are really going to be the best we have ever been and have the best recruits we have ever had Our coach and those recruits will finally break through and make a huge run in March.
Now having said that I have followed Iowa basketball for over 53 years and have only seen Iowa get to one final four. Obviously I have had to learn to enjoy following the team and just enjoying the wins that do happen. What else can you do? Would I enjoy a big run in March at least once every ten years? Of course and I know most Iowa fans would also. Let’s face it, it’s extremely unlimely to happen. Also we all know things could be a lot worse under another head coach. Right now Iowa is fun to watch as they have been competitive against some really good teams. Iowa’s main M.O is as a spoiler. That’s it. PERIOD. Might as well accept that and try to enjoy it as much as possible. The little train that couldn’t but is fun to watch them try anyways.
I am more of a risk taker myself. I am ok with a program going through some deep valleys if just once in a great, great, while you see a peak or two. No one knows this better than us Cub’s and Bear’s fans. Having said that it was worth the wait to see both FRANchises finally reach the peak. They didn’t get there however by keeping the same coaches around for an eternity though. Trial and error and a lot of patience from a die hard fan base.
You get caught or trapped. Man we have good players and those next recruits coming in next year and the year after we are going to be LOADED. The funny thing is that could be true. So you just sit and wait it out and hope it happens.
Twenty-five years in football is really really pushing it. It ain’t going to happen unless the coach changes and adapts his OVER ALL philosophy which he hasn’t done. Maybe next year as us cubs and bears fans are all too familiar with.
Nahhh, I’d rather roll the dice like you want to KC. I get it. The odds are stacked against us though. I think Iowa’s last national title in football was the year I was born sixty-three years ago. So I am also understanding to those who get enjoyments out of the little train that tries and plays spoiler along the way. Better than being the little train that can never play spoiler. Both visions aren’t all wrong. Like I said I am a bit of a gambler. It is so damn great to finally reach the pinnacle. The bears and cubs did it and if they never do it again I will always treasure the time the did.
Fran sucked at coaching the big 10 tournament until he won it. The only way we won it tho is because he constantly fields a team capable of winning it. He didn't luck into a good run when we won it. He just finally dodged bad luck and caught a couple breaks (which you always need).
You say we are only the spoiler? That's way too extreme. We had one year where we were top 10 and it fell apart once Patrick hot cancer. We had another where we got to top 3 and still had a chance at the big 10 title with a few games left in the season. We had another year where we were top 5 most of the year and was good enough to win the big 10 in any year over the last decade exact that year where there ended up being two 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. Could we always do better? Of course. But Iowa is far from the spoiler.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
And yet here we are.......
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
because it's an absolute crap shoot, lose and go home tournament. Iowa beats teams that get to the sweet 16 almost every season, sometimes convincingly, sometimes on their home courts. If Iowa is good enough to beat those teams in January or February, they are good enough to beat those teams in March. It just hasn't happened. So, instead of realizing that it's just the way the ball bounces sometimes, we get the "FRAN DOESN'T HAVE THIS and CAN'T DO THAT, AND HE CAN"T RECRUIT A GUARD, OR CAN'T RECRUIT a POST or whatever" - when he had good enough players all season to beat a lot of teams that made long runs.
It doesn't make sense that he can coach great in the ooc, he can coach great in conference, he can win a conference tournament and then suddenly, he gets to March and suddenly isn't good enough. He's been good enough to make it to the sweet 16 - they've just met teams better then them. You don't finish above .500 in the B1G in 11 of 12 years and not have a good enough team to make it to the Sweet 16.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
And yet here we are....
Look, I am trying to be funny and as stated, I am a Fran supporter, want him to stay, and still have faith he can break through. He is due. He is overdue.
That said, crapshoot is not the right analogy. Poker is a better analogy. It requires skill and luck. If we played heads up in poker one time, luck would have a lot to do with the outcome. But, if we played 14 hands and I beat you every time, you are either a terrible poker player or you are a good poker player who has the worst luck imaginable. My guess is the former.
Fran has been dealt some pocket queens and lost. Usually, he has jack ten off suit. Either way, he has not moved from the outer tables, and its not just all bad luck. Hard truth.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Oh definitely not all bad luck and your anaolgy is better, but also not really an indictment on Fran's team's skill or his coaching ability right? You watch, he'll sneak a team like this years in to the tournament and make a sweet 16 when no one is looking. Would that make this years team better than Luka's Sr. season? No, it would just mean they had a better draw, the ball bounced a different way and the team showed up and balled when they needed to. I think it's way more impressive to go .500 or better in a conference like the B1G for 11 of 12 years then it is to make a sweet 16. It's way harder in fact. I am someone who enjoys the journey of a team more than the last couple weeks they get to play. I get much more satisfaction as a fan out of regular season then having Iowa play 1 extra game in March.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
Ok, I think we have found common ground with our last two posts.
I agree that most fans put too much emphasis on the tournament and not enough on the regular season. Sort of like the opposite of football. I think the reason that is the case is that a lot of fans aren't following all of the MBB games during the regular season given the volume, but in football, with only 12 games played once a week, we follow more closely each contest. And, March Madness is a cultural event for the country, and we have mostly sucked at it.
You gotta have some luck along talent. Ralph Miller had an Iowa team in 1970 that was capable of winning it all. Got nicked by a team from Jacksonville with two 7 footers ( Artis Gilmore & Pembrook Burrows). Miller has a great team with John Johnson and "Downtown" Freddie Brown. Lute Olson had a team capable of winning it all, but bad luck prevailed when Ronnie Lester got hurt. Tom Davis had a team that I believe got to the elite 8 but could not get passed Jerry Tarkanian and the UNLV rebels.
Don't sell Freeman, Harding, Dix, & Sandfort short in a year or two especially if some additional talent is added.
Don't sell Freeman, Harding, Dix, & Sandfort short in a year or two especially if some additional talent is added.
I like the poker analogy so I'll add to that. If you play a heads out match with equal stacks 14 times against the same person and lose all 14, at that point you're probably outgunned. But the NCAA tournament is one heads up match one time and you don't start with an equal amount of chips.
Sometimes Fran blows chips before he gets to heads up like Marble and Uhoff's senior year. That's not luck (other than Patrick getting sick). That part was bad play by Fran to get us short stacked (a worse seed) before he even started playing.
Other times Fran plays out of his mind and gets a huge stack (Garza's senior year) or a big stack (Keegan's senior year). Those times were a combination of bad play (substitution patterns) and bad luck (bad draw against Oregon and Keegan hurting his ankle).
One last thing. Fran is 0-14 for reaching the sweet 16 at Iowa but you can't say he's 0-14 in his heads up matches. You can't just throw out the ones he wins in the first round. Before Keegan hurt his ankle, Fran and Davis had one thing in common at Iowa. They'd both never lost in the round of 64.
Sometimes Fran blows chips before he gets to heads up like Marble and Uhoff's senior year. That's not luck (other than Patrick getting sick). That part was bad play by Fran to get us short stacked (a worse seed) before he even started playing.
Other times Fran plays out of his mind and gets a huge stack (Garza's senior year) or a big stack (Keegan's senior year). Those times were a combination of bad play (substitution patterns) and bad luck (bad draw against Oregon and Keegan hurting his ankle).
One last thing. Fran is 0-14 for reaching the sweet 16 at Iowa but you can't say he's 0-14 in his heads up matches. You can't just throw out the ones he wins in the first round. Before Keegan hurt his ankle, Fran and Davis had one thing in common at Iowa. They'd both never lost in the round of 64.
Freeman and Harding clearly have a winner's mindset too.
We were looking at a 5 seed when covid happened. 5 seeds give you a really good chance to get to the sweet 16. They also give you a good chance on losing first round too. All I know is Fran's highest seeds were his last 3 years. People say he's reached his ceiling but his seed average keeps improving. Win Sunday and win one in the tourney and get an 11 seed. That's also a great place to make a run from. Especially if you avoid the two 11 seed play in games.
But on the flip side, if we get an 11 seed, win the first game, then beat a 14 seed to get to the sweet 16, it's not because Fran learned how to coach in the tournament. It's because he finally caught a break.
But on the flip side, if we get an 11 seed, win the first game, then beat a 14 seed to get to the sweet 16, it's not because Fran learned how to coach in the tournament. It's because he finally caught a break.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
I meant to post this here.
Since the tournament became seeded, Iowa has played 17 second-round games. The Hawkeyes have played chalk seeds all 17 times, including the top seed twice and the No. 2 seed six times. In the seeded era, Iowa has five Sweet 16 appearances and all were against the highest possible seed with three No. 1s and two No. 3s.
Since the tournament became seeded, Iowa has played 17 second-round games. The Hawkeyes have played chalk seeds all 17 times, including the top seed twice and the No. 2 seed six times. In the seeded era, Iowa has five Sweet 16 appearances and all were against the highest possible seed with three No. 1s and two No. 3s.
Ridiculous stat. So many shitty teams get a sweet 16 because they play a double digit seed in the 2nd round. Never happens to us. If we hold on to beat Tennessee in 2013 we would have benefited from an upset. Tennessee barely lost to Michigan to get to the elite 8. We rolled Michigan at home that year in the Woody shhhhhhhh game.
Mr. Davis let that Rebels team off the hook. He went into stall mode around midway thru 2nd half when IA was blowing them out. UNLV had almost everyone back the next yr to win it all, but they weren't as good the year IA played them
Curious what you think here. You have two choices for a coach. One went to their first sweet 16 at a mid major last year. The other is consistently getting 7 or better seeds but has never made the sweet 16. Which coach do you think gives us the better chance to make a sweet 16? I think it's easily the 2nd choice. I think a lot of people on here think it's the first choice.
