Bubble watch

A month or so ago I didn't think Iowa had a snowballs chance of getting in. Now it's pretty much down to 1 game and they are squarely on the should be in part of the bubble. Along with a BIG Tourny win or 2 to cement it.
 
Part of me wants Illinois to beat Purdue tomorrow so they're on a high coming into our game. That only works if Purdue wins their last game tho. Otherwise Illinois would be playing us for a share of the big 10 title. We don't want that.
 
I am happy we are going to be playing in the post season. I had big doubts a month ago. Gotta beat illinois to have any chance at Big Dance. Need a BIG crowd at last game - the team has earned it! Go Hawks!!
 
PCHawk said:
Lunardi has Iowa 4th team out in updated bracket.
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While that is just one dude's opinion, more and more most experts on bracketology have Iowa now in those teams just outside looking in. Would one win against a Top 15 team be enough to jump 3-5 teams? Maybe. Certainly a game or two in the tourney would cement it.

Of course, much depends on the rest of the bubble. Teams will rise and fall.

If Iowa gets to 20 wins, I think they are in. That would be one more quad 2 win and one more quad 1 win. That should get them in.
 
I know some people don't care about the NIT, but an NIT bid or an NCAA bid would be a tremendous achievement by this team. This team is capable of a deep run in the NIT, a tournament Iowa has never won (finished runner-up once).

I really believe that a win over Illinois and one win in the BTT would secure an NCAA bid.
 
ChosenChildren said:
I know some people don't care about the NIT, but an NIT bid or an NCAA bid would be a tremendous achievement by this team. This team is capable of a deep run in the NIT, a tournament Iowa has never won (finished runner-up once).

I really believe that a win over Illinois and one win in the BTT would secure an NCAA bid.
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Yes, agree. If they get stuck with NIT and they don't have a hangover from it - yes, could be a fun run.
 
ChosenChildren said:
I know some people don't care about the NIT, but an NIT bid or an NCAA bid would be a tremendous achievement by this team. This team is capable of a deep run in the NIT, a tournament Iowa has never won (finished runner-up once).

I really believe that a win over Illinois and one win in the BTT would secure an NCAA bid.
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This team is playing like a top 25 team right now so I'm really hoping they sneak in. They seriously play like a top 10 team for 30 minutes a game but always seem to have a 10 minute stretch where they fall apart and keep the other team in it. If they can figure that out, they could win a couple games and finally reach the sweet 16. I've always thought it would be a team like this that feels no pressure to make a run that could finally end the drought.
 
PCHawk said:
This team is playing like a top 25 team right now so I'm really hoping they sneak in. They seriously play like a top 10 team for 30 minutes a game but always seem to have a 10 minute stretch where they fall apart and keep the other team in it. If they can figure that out, they could win a couple games and finally reach the sweet 16. I've always thought it would be a team like this that feels no pressure to make a run that could finally end the drought.
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Fran has this infuriating habit of inserting 4 backups in the middle of the first half and basically giving the second team a 5 minute stretch. We saw it against NW. We had an 8 point lead. Backups come in and there was like a 12 point swing. You just can't have Patrick, Pryce, Dembele and Harding all in at once. There is just not enough offense there, and a couple sizeable defensive liabilities as well.

That said, Fran usually is pretty good on lineups and rotations other than this blindspot.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
I think beating Illinois alone should put us in, but it would not help the cause to lose to a low seed in the first round. That said, everyone except Michigan is not terrible. The conference does not have a whole lot of stank at the bottom. So, a win or a loss probably doesn't matter that much. The Illinois game would be about as big a resume boost as a bubble team can get right now.

If we don't beat Illinois, I think we have to get to Saturday. That would mean we would have beat a crap team on Thursday and then beat a Top 4 team on Friday. That should do it.
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Would be best to get two more wins but the way we are playing I think one of the next two gets us in. At least recent hot streaks meant a lot in the past.
 
BigD said:
Would be best to get two more wins but the way we are playing I think one of the next two gets us in. At least recent hot streaks meant a lot in the past.
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I think it'll take another quad 1 win. If they lose to Illinois, I think they'll need to beat a tourney team (at the minimum) during the BTT to get in.
 
SwirlinLingerie said:
I think it'll take another quad 1 win. If they lose to Illinois, I think they'll need to beat a tourney team (at the minimum) during the BTT to get in.
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Agreed. They either need to beat Illinois at home or win 2 in the tourney.

So, Iowa has to go at least 2-2 moving forward IMHO. 3 of those 4 should be Quad 1 games.

If single bye, they will have: Illinois, Quad 2 (Thursday), Quad 1 (Friday), (likely) Quad 1 (semis)

If double bye: Illinois, Quad 2 (Friday), Quad 1 (semis), (likely) Quad 1 (finals).

So, 2-2 either way. Beating Illinois at home makes their path a shitload easier.
 
There's a really bad scenario that could play out for big 10 seeding if we lose. I thought we would get the 6 or 7 seed with a loss which I was ok with. But I decided to check other options to see if we could fall further and we can. If Minnesota and Michigan State both win out we would fall to the 8 seed. That will be really bad news for us because the 9 seed is Ohio State. Even if we got them we would play Purdue next. I think if we're unlucky enough to end up the 8 seed we are NIT bound for sure.
 
Purdue at IL tonight - do we want IL to win and come in with over confidence and still possibly playing for a piece of the B1G or do we want IL beaten down and have them lack confidence heading into March?

Either way, I don't think that Sundays game is a given, Iowa has not always performed well in these spots under Fran.
 
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