Bubble watch
- Thread starter PCHawk
- Start date
The good news is Purdue plays this weekend before Illinois so if they win, Illinois will be eliminated before they play us. Mentally that might be the best time to play them. It would also give us a better win on the resume.
eyekwah
Well-Known Member
I would say Purdue winning would be the preferred outcome because Illinois would be eliminated from being co-champions. Illinois' motivation would be nothing to gain except NCAA seeding. It will be a tall order for Iowa to beat Illinois. Iowa's bench needs to play more minutes and keep it close so the starters can finish the last 5 minutes. Illinois' bench gives their starters a lot of rest.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
This isn't accurate. It suggests Iowa has to win the conference tourney to get to the Dance, and that is not true. They likely will lose again, it just depends on which game they lose. Iowa could lose to Illinois and then go 3-1 and lose to Purdue in the final and still have a good shot. If Iowa beats Illinois it can probably lose the first round and still sneak in, but it most likely gets in going 1-1 in the tourney.
Point is, we can survive a loss, and likely there will be another loss as Iowa aint beating Purdue. Just depends where the loss is.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
exactly, if Iowa loses on Sunday, they aren't cooked. It becomes much harder, but they aren't done. Just like they weren't done when everyone was saying they were 2 weeks ago and I tried to explain that it was way too early to be saying something like that. Even "Siri" knew they weren't eliminated lol.
They could lose Sunday, win one in the BTT and still be in Dayton. We just don't know how they will stack up to the rest of the field and where the committee decides to put focus on this season.
In the NET era, no top 45 team in Strength of Record with two true road wins over tournament teams has missed the field.The Hawkeyes are 43rd in SOR and have road wins vs Northwestern & Michigan St. They have wins over other bubble teams like Nebraska and Seton Hall, I don't think we'll honestly know whether Iowa sneaks in or doesn't until selection Sunday.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
If Iowa beats Illinois and 1 game in the tourney, I am pretty confident we are in, and it will just cement the stats you quoted. It might be Dayton, but in my view, that is still the tourney.
SwirlinLingerie
Well-Known Member
I like the vibe we got going. I'm struggling to come up with a time since the late 80s where Iowa had three backcourt players together who could all penetrate, shoot and defend.
This year, give me a play-in game in Dayton on Tuesday, the 5th seed on Thursday, and the 4th seed on Saturday.
Let's try that path to the Sweet 16. I like it. The Hawks will essentially have been going through play-in games for a month at that point anyway.
We're on a heater.
This year, give me a play-in game in Dayton on Tuesday, the 5th seed on Thursday, and the 4th seed on Saturday.
Let's try that path to the Sweet 16. I like it. The Hawks will essentially have been going through play-in games for a month at that point anyway.
We're on a heater.
trj
Well-Known Member
Matt Painter is arguably the best coach in the B1G and he has the the same problem Fran does…lack of success in the tournament .
Most of you are full of shit…you cry about Fran, but when you fill out your brackets, you all are going to pick Purdue not making it out of the first round.
Most of you are full of shit…you cry about Fran, but when you fill out your brackets, you all are going to pick Purdue not making it out of the first round.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
Painter certainly has an infamous record in the NCAA tourney, but comparing him to Fran does him a disservice. Big time. He has won the regular season Big10 4 times, the conference tourney twice, been to the sweet 16 four times and the elite 8 once. I am hard pressed to call that resume "lack of success." Put another way, if you told me Fran's replacement would do that over the next decade, I will join the #FireFran crowd right now!
Painter is the best coach in the Big10 outside of Izzo, who is winding down a great career. Painter's perceived deficiencies stem from being a creature of his own success. His teams are really great during the regular season, get high seeds, and then underperform. Secondarily, he has always built his teams around an 8 foot frankenstein center, but generally speaking, the tourney is won and lost by perimeter play.
That said, I think Purdue makes a deep run this year. I don't have any reason, just a feeling.
To be fair, he wasn't comparing their overall success. He was comparing their lack of success in the NCAA tournament. His point was if tournament losses can happen to the best coach in the conference, they can happen to anyone.
InGoodCo
Well-Known Member
Hear me out here.
Nebraska is 11-8 right now with their last game on Sunday at Michigan. NU has been terrible on the road this season. Winning on Sr. day, Howard's likely last game isn't going to be a certain. If Iowa takes care of their business against IL - that puts both Nebraska and Iowa at 11-9 in the B1G and Iowa has the tie break with the W over NU. Iowa would also have 2 true Q1 road wins vs NU's 0 - I think if that were to play out, NO WAY is Nebraska in before Iowa.
Northwestern - who is beat up, down starters - is 11-7 and play AT Michigan State tonight. Assuming they lose that one, they are 11-8 going into their weekend game against a surging MN team on Saturday night. Short turn around, tired legs and all. If Iowa takes care of their business, NW and Iowa would both be 11-9 in the B1G and Iowa will hold the tie breaker since they beat them on their own home court. No way they put in NW before Iowa in that scenario.
Nebraska is 11-8 right now with their last game on Sunday at Michigan. NU has been terrible on the road this season. Winning on Sr. day, Howard's likely last game isn't going to be a certain. If Iowa takes care of their business against IL - that puts both Nebraska and Iowa at 11-9 in the B1G and Iowa has the tie break with the W over NU. Iowa would also have 2 true Q1 road wins vs NU's 0 - I think if that were to play out, NO WAY is Nebraska in before Iowa.
Northwestern - who is beat up, down starters - is 11-7 and play AT Michigan State tonight. Assuming they lose that one, they are 11-8 going into their weekend game against a surging MN team on Saturday night. Short turn around, tired legs and all. If Iowa takes care of their business, NW and Iowa would both be 11-9 in the B1G and Iowa will hold the tie breaker since they beat them on their own home court. No way they put in NW before Iowa in that scenario.
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
Understood. Bill Self and Tom Izzo have had some very early bounces with some good teams as well. It can happen to the best of them. Its why they call it March madness.
That said, Fran has been coaching longer than Painter and has never made it out of the first round, despite having 12 appearances. Painter has also underachieved, but he has made an Elite 8. I think it is a false dichotomy to suggest that Fran's lack of tournament success is justified by Painter stubbing his toe here and there. Painter still has an overall winning record in the NCAA tourney and has come a game from the Final Four.
Fran's unimpressive tournament record speaks for itself. There are certainly more apt comparisons out there than Painter. In any event, I remain optimistic than Fran has built a foundation of success at Iowa, and Fran is due for a tourney run in the next few years. All slot machines pay off eventually, right?
NorthKCHawk
Well-Known Member
All fair points, but you are leaving out the metrics that the committee looks at like NET and RPI. And, you are leaving out what happens in the conference tourney. There are opportunities there to get bounced by a shitty team or pick up more resume building victories.
Most experts have Nebbie and NW safely in. IMHO, if Iowa defeats IIlinois and is 11-9 in a real conference with some salty wins at the end of the season, the committee will put Iowa in. Also, careful with your thinking. Since we beat Nebbie and NW, having them finish strong makes those wins all the more impressive.
