Bubble watch

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PCHawk

Well-Known Member
Probably need to get one of these going for the last week.

Right now we are on the 7th team out spot before our win last night. 5 teams lost yesterday ahead of us (from the last 4 byes back). That gives us the potential to be as high as 2nd team out when a new brackotology comes out. A quad 1 road win might even be enough to jump us over teams that didn't lose.

3 teams play today that are ahead of us. Drake, Seton Hall, and Colorado. Hopefully they all lose.
 
The Missouri Valley will only get one team in so it doesn’t matter what Drake does. Iowa beat Seton Hall head-to-head and is six spots ahead of them in the NET. Currently, Colorado only has one Quad 1 win.

Beat Illinois and win the first game of the BTT and they are in.
 
trj said:
The Missouri Valley will only get one team in so it doesn’t matter what Drake does. Iowa beat Seton Hall head-to-head and is six spots ahead of them in the NET. Currently, Colorado only has one Quad 1 win.

Beat Illinois and win the first game of the BTT and they are in.
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You don't think if Drake loses in their championship game they can still get in?
 
It’s going to be a great week for Iowa. Hawks just got a Q1 road W and Iowa can’t lose a game for 7 days, while the rest of CBB can.
 
PCHawk said:
I'm not sure what Indiana state has to do with Drake not being able to get an at large bid.
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The Missouri Valley Conference tourney champ will be the only bid that conference gets. I will let you do the homework on why that is.
 
The officiating will be awful but the boys can beat Illini. Really nice to see Py catch fire and drop about 30 on the Illini. Love the idea of seeing the boys in the BTT finals. That opens the door for a big Hawkeye invitation.
 
InGoodCo said:
It’s going to be a great week for Iowa. Hawks just got a Q1 road W and Iowa can’t lose a game for 7 days, while the rest of CBB can.
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Perkins could probably use those seven days. He appeared to be favoring his lower back or hip late in the game. I wonder if it occurred on the missed dunk.
 
trj said:
The Missouri Valley Conference tourney champ will be the only bid that conference gets. I will let you do the homework on why that is.
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I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I just see Drake on the bubble. They don't put teams on the bubble who can only get in if they win their conference tournament. That would be like Michigan being listed as a bubble team. Then you say Drake can't get an at large bid because Indiana State melted down. I didn't understand why. To me that's like saying Iowa can't get an at large bid because a random Big 10 team melted down.
 
PCHawk said:
I wasn't trying to be a jerk. I just see Drake on the bubble. They don't put teams on the bubble who can only get in if they win their conference tournament. That would be like Michigan being listed as a bubble team. Then you say Drake can't get an at large bid because Indiana State melted down. I didn't understand why. To me that's like saying Iowa can't get an at large bid because a random Big 10 team melted down.
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In your opinion, what would it take for two teams from the Missouri Valley to make the tournament?
 
trj said:
In your opinion, what would it take for two teams from the Missouri Valley to make the tournament?
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One to deserve an at large bid and a different team to win the tournament. Supposedly Drake is on the verge of deserving an at large bid.
 
We(Iowa fans) need to be concerned about Ohio St.? Anyway they leapfrog us(Iowa)?
 
trj said:
We(Iowa fans) need to be concerned about Ohio St.? Anyway they leapfrog us(Iowa)?
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I think since we have to win anyway we don't need to worry about them. They play Michigan and Rutgers while we play northwestern and Illinois. I don't see how their end of season can be considered worth of passing us if we win. If we lose it might help them get in. But we aren't in if we lose anyway.
 
Teams to watch this week - we want all of them to lose

Florida Atlantic
Nevada - rooting against them should be easy
Wake Forest
Virginia
New Mexico
Gonzaga
Seton Hall
Providence
Villanova
Utah
Colorado
St Johns
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Kansas St.
 
trj said:
The Missouri Valley will only get one team in so it doesn’t matter what Drake does. Iowa beat Seton Hall head-to-head and is six spots ahead of them in the NET. Currently, Colorado only has one Quad 1 win.

Beat Illinois and win the first game of the BTT and they are in.
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I think beating Illinois alone should put us in, but it would not help the cause to lose to a low seed in the first round. That said, everyone except Michigan is not terrible. The conference does not have a whole lot of stank at the bottom. So, a win or a loss probably doesn't matter that much. The Illinois game would be about as big a resume boost as a bubble team can get right now.

If we don't beat Illinois, I think we have to get to Saturday. That would mean we would have beat a crap team on Thursday and then beat a Top 4 team on Friday. That should do it.
 
I think we are projected in after the Illinois game if we win. But we very well might get bounced right back out with a loss in the first round.

On a northern note. We have a realistic shot at the 3 seed in the Big 10 tourney if we win. All we would need to happen is Wisconsin lose to Purdue (likely) nebraska to lose at Michigan (not likely but it's hard to win on the road and Michigan probably wants to finish strong on senior night) northwestern lose at MSU (likely) and northwestern to lose at home to Minnesota (with their injuries and the way they are falling apart I think that very well might happen).

If we are the 3 seed it not only gives us the best path to make a run, it also potentially puts us ahead of nebraska and northwestern as a bubble team. Especially if they both lose first round of the tourney too. I'd hate to be either of their fan bases on selection Sunday under that scenario. Especially northwestern who would almost certainly be out.
 
PCHawk said:
I think we are projected in after the Illinois game if we win. But we very well might get bounced right back out with a loss in the first round.

On a northern note. We have a realistic shot at the 3 seed in the Big 10 tourney if we win. All we would need to happen is Wisconsin lose to Purdue (likely) nebraska to lose at Michigan (not likely but it's hard to win on the road and Michigan probably wants to finish strong on senior night) northwestern lose at MSU (likely) and northwestern to lose at home to Minnesota (with their injuries and the way they are falling apart I think that very well might happen).

If we are the 3 seed it not only gives us the best path to make a run, it also potentially puts us ahead of nebraska and northwestern as a bubble team. Especially if they both lose first round of the tourney too. I'd hate to be either of their fan bases on selection Sunday under that scenario. Especially northwestern who would almost certainly be out.
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The path to the 3 seed is a bit of a needle thread, but the 4 seed is more atainanable.

I have mixed feelings on the double-bye. We are young and playing with confidence now, and our overall W/L record is not awesome. A part of me thinks that a Thursday game against a lesser team could be a good thing. When you are hot, you want to keep playing.

IMHO, the only team we can't beat is Purdue, so I think if we can't get to the double bye, I would almost rather drop to the 6 or 7 seed. Get on the other side of the bracket.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
The path to the 3 seed is a bit of a needle thread, but the 4 seed is more atainanable.

I have mixed feelings on the double-bye. We are young and playing with confidence now, and our overall W/L record is not awesome. A part of me thinks that a Thursday game against a lesser team could be a good thing. When you are hot, you want to keep playing.

IMHO, the only team we can't beat is Purdue, so I think if we can't get to the double bye, I would almost rather drop to the 6 or 7 seed. Get on the other side of the bracket.
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I agree. I would much rather be the 6 than the 5. But the 4 seed would be close for me. I'd rather play Purdue as late as possible. But on the other hand, there's almost no difference between the 3rd beat team Nebraska and the 13th best team Ohio State. We can lose to anyone so the double bye would help a ton.

The best part is if we lose, the 6 seed is still a legit possibility. At that point we would need the easiest path possible to make a run because we would need a run bad to make the tournament.
 
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