Actually Homer, if you would go more in-depth with the stats, you would find that you are more wrong than you are right. If you take a look at DJK's stats throughout the season, he equated for %19.1 of the team's receptions, and %21.1 of the team's receiving yards. Through Brodell's three healthy games, he hauled in %25 of the team's catches, but just %17.4 of the yardage. Brodell's numbers equted out to a full 12 game season come out to be:
50 REC, 397 YDS
Now, admittedly, a lot of DJK's numbers had to do w/ the fact Brodell was in fact injured. But for you to assume Brodell's catches and yards would increase at such a high rate is a little egregious.
Not egregious at all. I was accounting for factors that you likely didn't consider.
Specifically ....
- Moeaki went out due to injury too. Had Moeaki remained injured, but Brodell remained healthy ... Brodell would have averaged ABOVE 25% of the receptions! This is a factor that you hadn't considered. Thus, my estimate of 60 receptions could potentially have been an UNDERESTIMATE.
- Douglas and Chandler combined for 95 receptions altogether in '06 ... and the '07 receiving group didn't feature one guy who AS reliable as Brodell, other than Moeaki ... but he injured. Even with a more stagnant O ... a healthy Brodell would have still had to account for a substantial percentage of those 95 receptions.
- Brodell was averaging a ridiculously low 7.4 yard per reception. That was NOT on Brodell ... rather, it was due to the fact that Brodell actually understood a thing or two about hot routes ... and thus he was one of the few WRs providing Christensen with a respectable outlet. However, considering that Brodell's prior season averages were 11.5 yards per reception and 18.6 yards per reception ... it's not too much of a stretch to assert that Brodell could finish a season averaging in the ball-park of 14 to 15 yards per reception.
- You combine the above numbers and then you get .... 60 receptions x 14 yards per reception = 840 yards. That's precisely in the neighborhood of the estimate that I had provided.
Your analysis wasn't too bad. Your approach was sound, you just didn't account for the fact that Brodell (and the others) would account for more receptions in light of Moeaki's injury. Furthermore, you didn't account for the fact that Brodell's 7.4 yard per reception average was grossly not representative of what was typical for his career.
Frankly, if you want to be critical of my analysis, it would probably be fair to say that having Christensen as a QB would have limited Brodell's yardage per reception even more than what I had estimated. Given that both Cleveland and DJK averaged in the ball-park of 12 yards per reception ... one might assert that it would be better to estimate Brodell's average to be more around 12 or 13 yards per reception. That would then land him much closer to just 750 yards on the season.
If you had a more precise criticism ... the last thing I just pointed out would probably be the ONLY one. However, even then, it would be picking nits. After all ... it would still prove the original point ... Brodell would still have been a good bit more productive than DJK!