Not sure but California Gov shut things down earlier than most and some cities shut down before the Gov. They are the 6th biggest economy in the world so they will do what they want. They also went out and bought and got PPE, masks and more ventilators early
Are you personally worried about getting the Coronavirus?
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Not sure but California Gov shut things down earlier than most and some cities shut down before the Gov. They are the 6th biggest economy in the world so they will do what they want. They also went out and bought and got PPE, masks and more ventilators early
HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
Yup well aware of RSV it very well could of been what I had, my thing is the wife got what I had but never had the respiratory issues that I had.
That's a good point. But also remember that if a huge percentage of people has already had it, then where were the sick people then and why are the total sick people still going up? Judging by how many people are sick, we have to be either right at the peak or not at the peak yet of how many people are infected right now. Sick people in hospitals and total infected people at the time have to align with each other. You can't have millions sick a month ago with virtually no sick people in hospitals, then less than millions sick now with way more people in hospitals. Right now we are at max hospital levels with less than 10% of people being tested coming back positive. That means one of two things. Either this virus plowed through almost the entire population in a month or two, or there's no way a huge percentage has it. I'm not sure I'm even putting my thoughts into words good enough to follow. If someone else understands what I'm saying and can word it better, that would be great.
HawkPrdatr40
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Read that article link 82. They had first known cases in January? They didn’t shutdown in January. Just makes one wonder is all.
HawkPrdatr40
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I understand exactly what your saying. That antibody test Can’t get here soon enough, it’s going to honestly tell us the true impact..
I'm also really interested in California. Those numbers are definitely telling us something. I'm just not sure what they're telling us. Maybe they are proof of how extraordinarily well social distancing works and how important it was to shut down at the right time. New York not only waited a little too long, but also have a lifestyle that makes distancing hard to do. If social distancing really works that well, that's both good and bad. Good for how many lives we are saving, bit very bad for what happens when we stop.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Swell response. I knew you'd do that. Your alt is showing thru. You are better than that.
tksirius
HN's Love Doctor
LoL, you overestimate me.
HawkGold
Well-Known Member
Fire away. Plenty of rabbit holes on this thread.
My dream thread would be merging MSU Red Cedar and HN for a conversation. They seem relatively OK, except for being homers. UM is just off the chart arrogant, but can be polite. OSU.... nothing more to say. Nebby, is like talking to space aliens.
500,000 people have tested positive and the last guess I heard was 20% show symptoms. If that's true, then 2.5 million people have had it. That's .7% of the population. They have to be WAY off with that 20% showing symptoms guess for it to mean a huge portion of people already had it. I'm with you tho, I really want that test to get distributed. I've already done the math on distributing that test. Did you know if they did 100,000 tests per day, it would take almost 10 years to test 330 million people? That's crazy.
HawkGold
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LoL, you overestimate me.
You are like that annoying cousin that just won't stop being a smart ass, is rude and almost intolerable, but somehow kind of likable, but borderline. Btw, Billy Crystal fits you better.
I honestly don't know how you manage to switch back and forth on alts that much. You are darn good, but not perfect at it. For this the alts don't seem to want to talk much.
Do you do parts therapy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yj5ha9nsxYY
yes but you know it takes awhile for the virus to spread enough before that exponential growth really shows. In the US you have seen the charts that show the curve really going to a large upward slope not til around Mar 1 but it had been slowly spread and there is that up to 14 day incubation period where the spike upward starting on March 1 really started with spread maybe on Feb 14 to 20th.
Trying to think of a good analogy and one that comes to mind is those people who build the big domino puzzles. They start off with one line of dominos falling and if you showed it in slow motion it would be slow like the beginning of the spread but then that one domino line comes to a junction of two more lines, then those two lines each come to junction of 4 more lines of dominoes and also speed up the video and let it exponentiate ( I may have just made up that word).
Of course nuclear fission reactors are a very good analogy where the fuel is always emitting neutrons (akin to virus) that can split more atoms (people) creating more nuclei. The equation model predicts how much and how fast this happens and how to change or dampen the effect with the carbon or other type control rods to absorb more or less neutrons. Put the control rods in 100% and shut down the reactor (social distancing and masks) or pull out all the rods and let the reactor go natural or normal and let it go and exponentially get a meltdown of high rate fission or an explosion.
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#1DieHardHawk
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A lot of the diagnostic dilemmas leading to the debate regarding number of cases work both ways.
No doubt that many of the cases presumed to be COVID were in fact something else (as evidenced by the dramatic decrease in flu diagnoses, amongst other metrics), but there's also no doubt that many people that have had minor symptoms did in fact have COVID but were never tested, or even seen by a healthcare provider for that matter. Short of comprehensive testing of the longer term antibodies in the future, we'll likely never have truly accurate incidence numbers. Like with many diseases, epidemiologists will have to make educated guesses based upon available data.
In terms of the "Cytokine Storm," the concept isn't new and can apply to numerous types of infections. It probably would surprise many people, but when a patient dies of an "infection" what they are predominantly dying of is their body's reaction to the organism, not the organism itself. By releasing a cascade of mediators resulting in fluid third-spacing, high fever and hypotension (septic shock), our immune system can be our own worst enemy. The end result of the cascading effect often unfortunately is multi-system organ failure and death.
No doubt that many of the cases presumed to be COVID were in fact something else (as evidenced by the dramatic decrease in flu diagnoses, amongst other metrics), but there's also no doubt that many people that have had minor symptoms did in fact have COVID but were never tested, or even seen by a healthcare provider for that matter. Short of comprehensive testing of the longer term antibodies in the future, we'll likely never have truly accurate incidence numbers. Like with many diseases, epidemiologists will have to make educated guesses based upon available data.
In terms of the "Cytokine Storm," the concept isn't new and can apply to numerous types of infections. It probably would surprise many people, but when a patient dies of an "infection" what they are predominantly dying of is their body's reaction to the organism, not the organism itself. By releasing a cascade of mediators resulting in fluid third-spacing, high fever and hypotension (septic shock), our immune system can be our own worst enemy. The end result of the cascading effect often unfortunately is multi-system organ failure and death.
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I pasted in the Johns Hopkins US Daily increase and US confirmed case #s by date charts from today's website view.
Both charts show the virus is still spreading at quite a pace. Top chart the US is adding about 100,000 cases every 3 days and we know about 15-20% will be seriously to critically ill. The bottom confirmed totals chart shows a 45 degree positive numbers climb. And even though first cases were registered about Jan 21 which is the leftmost part of this chart we see it does take some time for minimal spread and then the 10-14 day before cases start to mount in early March. Problem is even with major mitigation the numbers are increasing pretty fast. I don't even want to imagine what Mar. 10th to today would have been like if everyone was shaking hands, totally mixing with each other, not washing and sanitizing, no masks (I have been wearing a a two drywall mask with high rated hepa filter material between the masks for about 2-3 weeks when I go to stores). I especially think the larger cities would be terribly hit while again Wyoming, Montana, and N Dakota not that much but worse.
Both charts show the virus is still spreading at quite a pace. Top chart the US is adding about 100,000 cases every 3 days and we know about 15-20% will be seriously to critically ill. The bottom confirmed totals chart shows a 45 degree positive numbers climb. And even though first cases were registered about Jan 21 which is the leftmost part of this chart we see it does take some time for minimal spread and then the 10-14 day before cases start to mount in early March. Problem is even with major mitigation the numbers are increasing pretty fast. I don't even want to imagine what Mar. 10th to today would have been like if everyone was shaking hands, totally mixing with each other, not washing and sanitizing, no masks (I have been wearing a a two drywall mask with high rated hepa filter material between the masks for about 2-3 weeks when I go to stores). I especially think the larger cities would be terribly hit while again Wyoming, Montana, and N Dakota not that much but worse.
New York City, especially Manhattan is a vertical city. I have never been there but I think and have seen some pretty large and tall apartment buildings in the other burroughs. This increases the social density compared to Los Angeles with its suburban sprawl in Venice and so many suburbs (as I have been there). My impression is that San Francisco might be more vertical and dense that LA.
And will we as a nation have for at least some time period be carrying some type of proof that we have had the virus if that does show we are no longer infectious and are pretty well immune.
#1DieHardHawk
Well-Known Member
To piggyback on this, it will be interesting to see if any of the immune modulators that work to blunt cytokine release - CellCept is one commonly used in transplant patients - will be field-tested on the critically ill COVID patients.
If all it takes not to get overwhelmed is to not be ridiculously densely populated, then quit making places like Iowa follow the same rules. Restaurants need to find a way to be safer. Testing for employees. Make them wash their hands every 15 minutes. Hand sanitizer on every table. Just find ways to prevent mass spreading while running businesses. Shutting down was required to slow the sprea . Now it's time to start coming up with ways to keep the spread down while functioning normally.
To add to this, I can't remember hearing any testing on people who have been sick or tested positive with covid and then a month later if testing has found no virus in their breathing droplets/spittle, saliva etc to say they are 100% no longer infectious. That is still one big fact to find out.
The antibody/antigen test will ID people who have had it as we know the science. But are they still infectious, I hope not after 2-3 weeks or so.
Are those that test positive going to be totally or highly immune so that the worst they get is just a very mild recurrence. That immunity level is still a major fact to find out.
We can only hope for immunity and not being infectious after a certain short amount of time so people can get back to work, school, life, and then a vaccine to make it clear for all who want it.
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