Will We Have Football in the Fall?

[Motigerhawk]

I heard a rumor today that a state school in Missouri, Not Mizzou, was going to online courses for the 1st semester next year.
We either need to open up the country to build up herd immunity or shit it down and find a vaccine. This back and forth BS will not work.

 

[EstronHawkKing]

Here's your answer straight from the NCAA front office........


"The NCAA has made it clear that unless college campuses are open to the entire student body in the fall, there are no plans to risk the health of student-athletes for the sake of sports.

President Mark Emmert plainly said Friday night that the NCAA will not play fall sports if the coronavirus pandemic forces schools to close campuses in the coming months.

“College athletes are college students, and you can’t have college sports if you don’t have college [campuses] open and having students on them,” Emmert said, according to the NCAA’s Twitter. “You don’t want to ever put student-athletes at greater risk than the rest of the student body.”

 

[DBAHawkFan]

I heard a rumor today that a state school in Missouri, Not Mizzou, was going to online courses for the 1st semester next year.
We either need to open up the country to build up herd immunity or shit it down and find a vaccine. This back and forth BS will not work.

To achieve this, we need at least 50% of the population to be infected.

so let’s say that’s 160 million people infected.

now 20% of this will require hospitalization, thats 32 million people. The death rate for this at the moment is 1.3%. But let’s say it ends up lower with more infections, .8%

you’re still looking at a million to millions of deaths.

we still don’t know anything about immunity to this virus. If we’re lucky it’s many months to a year to by time for treatment and maybe a vaccine. If it’s only a handful of months then we have to go through this process again??

The older you are the higher risk for death from this virus. The next factor in the US is obesity. 40% of the population are considered obese...

But this comes down to a morality question. Are you OK with a herd immunity plan (which appears to be what we’re going for indirectly) if it means your grandparents and parents probably die from this (I’m 40 so that would include both) ? Are sports really worth it ?

again i don’t want to get too into politics but if the US had a freaking plan versus mix match of states doing their own thing, we could probably figure out a way to balance the health of our society and opening back up with limitations. Europe will be playing soccer (futbol ) again. South Korea is planning to play baseball.

there is a way out of this, tho it doesn’t bring us back to “normal”. There will never be that normal again. Instead at this moment we are blind to where the virus is. We cannot open, play sports, etc until we have better data

or we hope for a miracle drug

 

[Northside Hawk]

This is a little off topic but there talk of major league baseball extending into November.

Even if temperatures are tolerable, and in some cases they wouldn't be, day games would be impossible. The sun is too low and shadows would be everywhere. Some fields face southeast. The sun would be setting right over the right field foul pole. Ain't happening.

 

[Stanzi]

To achieve this, we need at least 50% of the population to be infected.

so let’s say that’s 160 million people infected.

now 20% of this will require hospitalization, thats 32 million people. The death rate for this at the moment is 1.3%. But let’s say it ends up lower with more infections, .8%

you’re still looking at a million to millions of deaths.

we still don’t know anything about immunity to this virus. If we’re lucky it’s many months to a year to by time for treatment and maybe a vaccine. If it’s only a handful of months then we have to go through this process again??

The older you are the higher risk for death from this virus. The next factor in the US is obesity. 40% of the population are considered obese...

But this comes down to a morality question. Are you OK with a herd immunity plan (which appears to be what we’re going for indirectly) if it means your grandparents and parents probably die from this (I’m 40 so that would include both) ? Are sports really worth it ?

again i don’t want to get too into politics but if the US had a freaking plan versus mix match of states doing their own thing, we could probably figure out a way to balance the health of our society and opening back up with limitations. Europe will be playing soccer (futbol ) again. South Korea is planning to play baseball.

there is a way out of this, tho it doesn’t bring us back to “normal”. There will never be that normal again. Instead at this moment we are blind to where the virus is. We cannot open, play sports, etc until we have better data

or we hope for a miracle drug

Obesity isn't the next highest at risk factor. That would be people with compromised immune systems. After that would be people with underlying health conditions like heart disease, diabetes, etc. Obesity isn't a big risk factor, maybe morbid obesity.

 

[DBAHawkFan]

I misspoke. Obesity leads to loads of health issues, most of which lead to a greater struggle with covid19.

Sweden is doing the Herd Immunity route and they have the highest death rate per capita of any euro country. And they’re much fitter, less diverse (and smaller) population than we are.

the economy doesn’t come back until People aren’t afraid of getting sick

 

[revkev73]

If we lock down the country for another 6 months the virus will be the least of our worries. We'll be looking at another great depression with people out of work, homeless in the streets and people struggling to feed themselves. Australia is already seeing a spike in suicides that surpasses their Covid-19 deaths. In short: we're all f***ed if we follow a perpetual "lock down" strategy. The fallout from that will dwarf the direct effects of the virus.

We still don't have a vaccine for H1N1 or a variety of other viruses...years later. Yet, somehow we survived. This disease is not killing young and/or healthy people in droves. It largely strikes the elderly, sick and compromised...like its predecessors. Intelligent steps to protect those groups is the logical (and time tested) way to proceed.

If the country opens back up, it won't be long and the Social Security System will be more solvent.

 

[revkev73]

Yep. And to produce enough vials, needles, and who knows how much of the actual medicine to get to the population......that’ll take at least six months on its own. Healthcare workers and others would get it first.

now if China gets the vaccine first we’ll be waiting for a long time to get it.....

and we need to stop comparing this to the flu. It’s a coronavirus. We have no immunity.

If you get this virus, 80% chance you come out the other side fine. That other 20% may not result in death (it could) but it can totally wreck your lungs, kidneys, etc for life.
We have to find a way to manage both the health of each other, and keep business running.

i won’t go much further than saying what we have seen so far isn’t going to work

There are many more unknowns than knowns, which leads me to believe that football in the near future will not be in the cards on the college level.

 

[4thngoal]

You know what my gal said today and she is absolutely right. She said you know what the difference in this virus and every other virus/disease is?
The government never went into lock down mode. That's a first. Swine flu, zeka, bird flu, Ebola, sars. They all killed plenty. But never before has there been such a panic and never before a lock down.
I said, well baby it is basically very hard on the elderly and the elderly we know don't seem to care. But the elderly running the companies and the government, they are scared. But we've always known that, sending people off to war is one thing, being there or sending your child is another. They are scared because they can't buy their way out of this and that's a first. People who never could buy their way out of things they are not so scared.

 

[haydensly]

I think we have football this fall. I believe it will be with a limited amount of fans to allow for social distancing. It could come down to fewer people getting tickets and paying more for them. If this happens I think you'll see a lot of security people making sure fans are following the rules of staying 6 feet apart. (No high-five'n your neighbor this year after Goodsen scores from 99 yards out).

While this would be a huge hit against the budgets of athletic departments all over, it would allow the games to be televised and that is huge lifeline. If this happens, they will have to issue refunds to people who have already paid for season tickets (like me).

I think this is a best case scenario and there are a lot of others that allow for football but become less and less attractive, i.e. no fans, spring football, fewer games, etc. etc. I don't see 70,000 fans packed into Kinnick this fall, unfortunately.

 

[revkev73]

You know what my gal said today and she is absolutely right. She said you know what the difference in this virus and every other virus/disease is?
The government never went into lock down mode. That's a first. Swine flu, zeka, bird flu, Ebola, sars. They all killed plenty. But never before has there been such a panic and never before a lock down.
I said, well baby it is basically very hard on the elderly and the elderly we know don't seem to care. But the elderly running the companies and the government, they are scared. But we've always known that, sending people off to war is one thing, being there or sending your child is another. They are scared because they can't buy their way out of this and that's a first. People who never could buy their way out of things they are not so scared.

The political division in this country is teeming with intense hatred. There is little middle ground. Using a virus to make political opponents appear weak and inept (on both sides) is a deadlier disease than Covid19. It is similar to the make up of our country prior to the Civil War in many ways. Yes, there is political payoff by creating fear.

Plus, so little is known of this virus, even the best and brightest do a lot of guessing, playing the cards the best they can.

 

[TJHawkeye]

The limited amount of fans thing is unworkable. Yes you can space them out in the stadium itself, but entry and exit will be uncontrollable. If you let 10% into Kinnick or about 7000 people and you have a line spaced 6 ft apart, you have about an 8 mile long line. People won't have the patience for that. If they are taking everyone's temperature, you'll be standing in that line a long time. Getting out after the game with spacing, can't even imagine that.

 

[DBAHawkFan]

You know what my gal said today and she is absolutely right. She said you know what the difference in this virus and every other virus/disease is?
The government never went into lock down mode. That's a first. Swine flu, zeka, bird flu, Ebola, sars. They all killed plenty. But never before has there been such a panic and never before a lock down.
I said, well baby it is basically very hard on the elderly and the elderly we know don't seem to care. But the elderly running the companies and the government, they are scared. But we've always known that, sending people off to war is one thing, being there or sending your child is another. They are scared because they can't buy their way out of this and that's a first. People who never could buy their way out of things they areThe

This isn’t hard to understand

Ebola, SARS, MERS are way deadly in comparison but harder to transmit. You must be symptomatic in order for the virus to spread to the next person. And in the case of Ebola it’s through bodily fluids.

SARS and MERS have a much closer range than Covid19 (versus the 6-12’ spread).

Once someone has the above disease they will absolutely know it, which means they’re less likely to be out and about in the general population.

H1N1 has similar traits to Covid19, but ended up being lower in the mortality rate. It was still a very transmissible disease based on the number of people infected world wide.

The challenging aspect of Covid19 is its R() 1-3.5, and the fact that asymptomatic people can spread it. Look at what recently happened in South Korea. A asymptomatic person hit the clubs and created a cluster of infections. Something like 52 people test positive from that evening and at the time of the test/trace 30% showed no symptoms.

had they not been tested those dozen or so people would have then gone on to spread to hundreds, or thousands more.

This is challenge

 

[MoseSchrute]

^ Yeah, the whole taking everyone's temperature thing can mitigate to some degree, but you still have a problem with the asymptomatic spreaders.

 

[4thngoal]

The political division in this country is teeming with intense hatred. There is little middle ground. Using a virus to make political opponents appear weak and inept (on both sides) is a deadlier disease than Covid19. It is similar to the make up of our country prior to the Civil War in many ways. Yes, there is political payoff by creating fear.

Plus, so little is known of this virus, even the best and brightest do a lot of guessing, playing the cards the best they can.

I totally agree. It's getting difficult to even find intelligent conversation about things. That's what is really scary.

 

[4thngoal]

This isn’t hard to understand

Ebola, SARS, MERS are way deadly in comparison but harder to transmit. You must be symptomatic in order for the virus to spread to the next person. And in the case of Ebola it’s through bodily fluids.

SARS and MERS have a much closer range than Covid19 (versus the 6-12’ spread).

Once someone has the above disease they will absolutely know it, which means they’re less likely to be out and about in the general population.

H1N1 has similar traits to Covid19, but ended up being lower in the mortality rate. It was still a very transmissible disease based on the number of people infected world wide.

The challenging aspect of Covid19 is its R() 1-3.5, and the fact that asymptomatic people can spread it. Look at what recently happened in South Korea. A asymptomatic person hit the clubs and created a cluster of infections. Something like 52 people test positive from that evening and at the time of the test/trace 30% showed no symptoms.

had they not been tested those dozen or so people would have then gone on to spread to hundreds, or thousands more.

This is challenge

Ok then what are our options?
Because to me again I say if the flu vaccine only has a 45% success rate. That won't work. We can't sustain extended lockdown.
The only other option is herd immunity. Which in the end is exactly how mankind has survived almost everything.
I mean look, I have things I want to do, things I want to see and I am 50 years old, kids are raised and I should be able to do some of them. But I am not scared. If I die, I die. I remember Mom always saying omg don't step on a rusty nail, so the way I see it is things have been trying to kill me since I arrived on the scene. I guess it's no different than playing football, there is a risk. Life is that way. But the risk of dying from this isn't all that great anyway, so I like my odds.
Short version. We can't stop it. So what are you going to do?

 

[SmokeTownHawk]

Without mass testing of fans and players I don't see how we do a full season of football as we know it. If you can test players everyday prior to practice and on gameday it's possible you could do a shortened season without fans.

 

[Ree4]

We could have football, basketball and baseball all going at the same time.

 

[westender]

I'm hoping we have a full blown season, with sellouts and everything. I think all of us would be happen if that were to happen. What do all of you think? Please no politics or social issues!

If some one had some air filtration helmets for fans they'd be doing some fast business.

 

[westender]

Maybe spring football? That could be fun if fall doesnt work out.

It'd make January a tiny bit more tolerable knowing what was to come.