What's Fran's ceiling at Iowa?

[ibahawkeye]

I think he's capable of winning a Big Ten Championship and getting to the Elite 8.

By no means do I feel like he's hit his ceiling. These next few years should be fun with the current roster and recruits we have coming in. I hope we can build momentum and show progression with results with these guys and have it continue to help Fran recruit better talent (not saying talent is bad but it could always be better).

 

[spliff45]

2nd round with maybe a Sweet 16 sprinkled in is his limit unfortunately.I just don't think Iowa's guard play allows it to go much further.

 

[greenvillehawk]

I think Fran has come a long way, especially considering what he had to work with when he arrived. The recruiting has gotten better, and the recruiting looks much brighter the next few years. Iowa has a talented team and they play a fun brand of basketball, it is only going to take a year or two more of good finishes in the Tourney, second round at least I hope, and the recruiting will get even better in mho.

 

[Joshbrown]

I also see Fran as a decent recruiter, particularly for a program in the middle of the country with no national titles in its resume and located in a relatively smaller city that for much of the basketball season is bitterly cold and snowy. But he will always have to deal with this those drawbacks as he seeks to recruit blue-chip, game-changing players, and I just don't see him being able to lure many of those players to Iowa City.

Some "fake news" IMO. When Tom Davis left I read an article in Sports Illustrated that only 16 other programs had visited the big dance more times than Iowa. So obviously we were top 20 all time in post-season appearances. We were (and are) in the best basketball conference and we were known as an upper-division school within that conference.

As far as geography is concerned, it feels like everyone on HN says being in the exact center of North America is nothing but bad. They fail to see that we are equidistant from every point, which means no recruit has to travel 3000 miles to get here. They also fail to recognize that some kids who grow up in large population areas have lost their luv for these crime tsunamis. Nebraska in football. Illinois in Basketball. Michigan/Ohio in all sports. Those places aren't tropical paradises. And the one place that is a Tropical Paradise - Hawaii - doesn't produce elite results in D-1 sports, so the theory that sun and surf is what makes an athletic program can be thrown out the window.

Iowa may not be Duke, but our school history in basketball was superior to our history in football back in 1999. Now that has flipped. I only bring that up as a reminder that if things can change for the worse, they can also change for the better. Demanding better is the first step. Sadly you read these boards and all you find is excuses for why Iowa can't be anything other than irrelevant.

 

[PCHawk]

Some "fake news" IMO. When Tom Davis left I read an article in Sports Illustrated that only 16 other programs had visited the big dance more times than Iowa. So obviously we were top 20 all time in post-season appearances. We were (and are) in the best basketball conference and we were known as an upper-division school within that conference.

As far as geography is concerned, it feels like everyone on HN says being in the exact center of North America is nothing but bad. They fail to see that we are equidistant from every point, which means no recruit has to travel 3000 miles to get here. They also fail to recognize that some kids who grow up in large population areas have lost their luv for these crime tsunamis. Nebraska in football. Illinois in Basketball. Michigan/Ohio in all sports. Those places aren't tropical paradises. And the one place that is a Tropical Paradise - Hawaii - doesn't produce elite results in D-1 sports, so the theory that sun and surf is what makes an athletic program can be thrown out the window.

Iowa may not be Duke, but our school history in basketball was superior to our history in football back in 1999. Now that has flipped. I only bring that up as a reminder that if things can change for the worse, they can also change for the better. Demanding better is the first step. Sadly you read these boards and all you find is excuses for why Iowa can't be anything other than irrelevant.

All you find is excuses? Look harder, the board is filled with people who think Fran sucks.

 

[PCHawk]

I think he's capable of winning a Big Ten Championship and getting to the Elite 8.

By no means do I feel like he's hit his ceiling. These next few years should be fun with the current roster and recruits we have coming in. I hope we can build momentum and show progression with results with these guys and have it continue to help Fran recruit better talent (not saying talent is bad but it could always be better).

But what if they meet an 11 seed in the elite 8 like south Carolina did? That's why you can never put a ceiling on how far a coach can take a team in the dance. Maybe there are upsets that clear the path. Maybe we play a team that goes ice cold. Maybe we catch fire from 3. There are no ceilings in a one and done tournament.

 

[lightning1]

I gotta look at his body of work and say NCAA 2nd round. Several chapters of his book have been written and that's what those chapters say. The final chapters can be different, however but I'm not counting on it.

 

[ibahawkeye]

But what if they meet an 11 seed in the elite 8 like south Carolina did? That's why you can never put a ceiling on how far a coach can take a team in the dance. Maybe there are upsets that clear the path. Maybe we play a team that goes ice cold. Maybe we catch fire from 3. There are no ceilings in a one and done tournament.

I see your point but by the time you get down to the Final 4 and certainly the national championship, there's enough games that you've been tested and you'll have to face competition at some point. So perhaps the ceiling is a Final 4 if the perfect path opened up.

 

[hawkeyemark]

I gotta look at his body of work and say NCAA 2nd round. Several chapters of his book have been written and that's what those chapters say. The final chapters can be different, however but I'm not counting on it.

This kind of sums up my feelings on this topic. At age 60 I would like to win another conference title in my lifetime but don't see it on the horizon. I look around the Big Ten and while we have become relatively weaker the future looks bright IMO. We have very good young coaches in Chris Collins and now Archie Miller who with that talent base could put the Hoosiers back on the map in short order. Thad Motta seems on his last leg at Ohio State and that represents another program that could easily rise back to prominence with a good hire. I've always considered Illinois a sleeping giant in basketball and they look like they may have hired the right coach this time which could impact the dynamics a bit. We have a talented young core moving forward but so do other teams namely Michigan State and Maryland.

Fran might have an Elite 8 in him with this group and the coming additions but I don't think his style of play lends itself to getting that far in the post season. We play entertaining and competitive basketball but this tournament bears out that at the end of the day defense wins. In my neck of the woods I don't see teams like Florida and South Carolina going away- both well coached and play stifling defense.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

I think a final 4 isn't out of the question in the next year or two. Look at this group just this year. IF they'd have gotten off to a better start this year and not lost a couple of closer ones they'd have been in the dance. Iowa was a team nobody was really wanted to play late in the year. With the right matchups they could have done some damage this year even. They should only get better. Our front court will be as deep and good as any ones. So to say an elite 8 or final 4 is out of the question would be silly to me. I think the sky is the limit for them. South Carolina was a 7 seed that wasn't exactly a world beater all year but just about shocked the whole damn world. Why can't we?

 

[NikeHawk21]

Fran has graduated four senior classes at Iowa. I threw in KenPom for reference:

2014 (Marble) - NCAA 1st Four (KenPom 22)
2015 (White) - NCAA round of 32 (KenPom 23)
2016 (Uthoff & Co) - NCAA round of 32 (KenPom 22)
2017 (Jok) - NIT (KenPom 71)

We could debate all day a good starting point, but we all know Fran inherited an absolute dumpster fire that was going to take a least a couple of season to rebound from. I chose to start from his first recruiting classes senior year.

So over the last four Fran has gone to three NCAA tournaments and the round of 32 twice.

I'm not sure of anyone who would argue that our freshman from last year and our incoming recruits appear to be less talented than our previous recruits. Therefore I question how anyone could say he's already hit his ceiling.

On top of that I think Uthoff's team could have easily gone to the sweet 16 with the right matchup.

Oh well. It's kind of the same argument we always have. Some people think Fran sucks and that we've reached our peak, others think he could be building something special going forward.

 

[thedukeofearl]

I see your point but by the time you get down to the Final 4 and certainly the national championship, there's enough games that you've been tested and you'll have to face competition at some point. So perhaps the ceiling is a Final 4 if the perfect path opened up.

Usually in the Sweet Sixteen the pretenders are weeded out.....

Some might make the Elite Eight but then the dream is over in the majority of cases.....

Realistically I can see the Hawks making the Sweet Sixteen in two years and perhaps the Elite Eight the following year.....

Nothing wrong with an optimistic viewpoint especially after viewing the attitude and improvement of the Lads the past season. The seeds of excellence have been planted and the results will be forthcoming.....

 

[thedukeofearl]

This kind of sums up my feelings on this topic. At age 60 I would like to win another conference title in my lifetime but don't see it on the horizon. I look around the Big Ten and while we have become relatively weaker the future looks bright IMO. We have very good young coaches in Chris Collins and now Archie Miller who with that talent base could put the Hoosiers back on the map in short order. Thad Motta seems on his last leg at Ohio State and that represents another program that could easily rise back to prominence with a good hire. I've always considered Illinois a sleeping giant in basketball and they look like they may have hired the right coach this time which could impact the dynamics a bit. We have a talented young core moving forward but so do other teams namely Michigan State and Maryland.

Fran might have an Elite 8 in him with this group and the coming additions but I don't think his style of play lends itself to getting that far in the post season. We play entertaining and competitive basketball but this tournament bears out that at the end of the day defense wins. In my neck of the woods I don't see teams like Florida and South Carolina going away- both well coached and play stifling defense.

Any progress in the Dance will be determined by our Defense.....

It is essential that we develop a style of D similar to that we employed when behind in the second half this season a number of times. A 10 point deficit would disappear in a flash on occasion. We will have the capable bodies to implement this with solid substitutions. 35 minutes of Hawkeye Hell.....

Stop right there, Pal.....

 

[tksirius]

Over 60% don't believe Fran can get us to a final four. Interesting.

 

[EstronHawkKing]

Being that he can't even get Iowa out of the first round of the Big 10 Tournament, I laughed when I saw this poll.

 

[PCHawk]

Being that he can't even get Iowa out of the first round of the Big 10 Tournament, I laughed when I saw this poll.

Yes he can. I've seen him do it twice.

 

[EstronHawkKing]

Over 60% don't believe Fran can get us to a final four. Interesting.

I'm starting to doubt that I will ever see Iowa in the Final 4 again.

 

[mrolympia]

we shall see in a couple of years.

 

[Xerxes]

But what if they meet an 11 seed in the elite 8 like south Carolina did? That's why you can never put a ceiling on how far a coach can take a team in the dance. Maybe there are upsets that clear the path. Maybe we play a team that goes ice cold. Maybe we catch fire from 3. There are no ceilings in a one and done tournament.

To prove your point, look no further than the B1G's last champion MSU. In 2000 they basically won the national title in the regional final against ISU. Once they got past that game the other final 4 teams were 8 seeds Wisconsin & North Carolina and 5 seed Florida. They cruised to the title mainly because of upsets. It's crazy to think how close ISU was to a national title. They lead MSU by 8 in the 2nd half of that regional final and would have benefited from those same upsets.

The following year, they were once again a 1 seed and far more talented and made it to the final 4 again. This time 1 seed Duke, 2 seed Arizona, & 3 seeded Maryland awaited, each with future NBA players. Arizona blasted them by 20 in the national semifinals.

Today's college basketball is all about timing. Right players at the right time. Getting hot at the right time and getting upsets to help you along the way

 

[BigD]

This kind of sums up my feelings on this topic. At age 60 I would like to win another conference title in my lifetime but don't see it on the horizon. I look around the Big Ten and while we have become relatively weaker the future looks bright IMO. We have very good young coaches in Chris Collins and now Archie Miller who with that talent base could put the Hoosiers back on the map in short order. Thad Motta seems on his last leg at Ohio State and that represents another program that could easily rise back to prominence with a good hire. I've always considered Illinois a sleeping giant in basketball and they look like they may have hired the right coach this time which could impact the dynamics a bit. We have a talented young core moving forward but so do other teams namely Michigan State and Maryland.

Fran might have an Elite 8 in him with this group and the coming additions but I don't think his style of play lends itself to getting that far in the post season. We play entertaining and competitive basketball but this tournament bears out that at the end of the day defense wins. In my neck of the woods I don't see teams like Florida and South Carolina going away- both well coached and play stifling defense.

Amen Brother,
Finally someone who is intelligent enough to realize it's not just about Iowa getting better recruits compared to Iowa past recruits. It's about competing against your conference foes in recruiting and coaching and when it comes to defense you just can't put a price on how valuable that aspect is too the game.

Eight years in college basketball is an eternity and long enough to get a good feel for what a coach can do. Alford was done at this point as was Raveling and Lickliter. This could be a good next few years but a lot of the is conjecture based on antisipated expectations from high school kids who have never played one game at the collegient level. Even though this may be Fran's best series of recruiting still the experts have his best class at what sixth or seventh in the conference since he has been here?

I want to see what happens in the next three years. It's time for Fran to put up or shut up as they say. The last thing I want to see is the KF mindset settle in over the basketball program. Three years and that's it. No more lame excuses. What are we becoming little cyclones fans who make up excuses for their impotence in their athletic programs (see ISU football)? Fran it's time to man up and make this program arise within the next three years. If not it's time to get out the chopping block.