What's Fran's ceiling at Iowa?

What's the farthest Fran McCaffery can take Iowa basketball?

  • NCAA Championship Game

    Votes: 11 20.4%

  • NCAA Final Four

    Votes: 15 27.8%

  • NCAA Elite Eight

    Votes: 4 7.4%

  • NCAA Sweet 16

    Votes: 11 20.4%

  • NCAA Second Round

    Votes: 11 20.4%

  • B1G Regular Season Championship

    Votes: 1 1.9%

  • B1G Tournament Championship

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • NIT Championship

    Votes: 1 1.9%
  • Total voters
    54
  • Poll closed .
Number of final 4 appearances by team over the past 20 years:

North Carolina 7
Michigan State 7
Kentucky 5
Duke 5
Connecticut 5
Kansas 4
Florida 4
Louisville 3
Syracuse 3
Wisconsin 3
Ohio State 3
UCLA 3
Villanova 2
Oklahoma 2
Butler 2
Maryland 2
Gonzaga 1
Illinois 1
Oregon 1
South Carolina 1
Wichita State 1
VCU 1
George Mason 1
Michigan 1
West Virginia 1
Memphis* 1
Georgetown 1
LSU 1
Oklahoma State 1
Georgia Tech 1
Marquette 1
Texas 1
Indiana 1
Arizona 1
Utah 1
Stanford 1
 
The problem with the poll is you can't select 3 answers which could all be true.

I believe Fran is capable of winning a regular season conference championship, conference tournament championship and go to the Elite 8 (maybe, final 4).
 
BigD said:
Amen Brother,
Finally someone who is intelligent enough to realize it's not just about Iowa getting better recruits compared to Iowa past recruits. It's about competing against your conference foes in recruiting and coaching and when it comes to defense you just can't put a price on how valuable that aspect is too the game.

Eight years in college basketball is an eternity and long enough to get a good feel for what a coach can do. Alford was done at this point as was Raveling and Lickliter. This could be a good next few years but a lot of the is conjecture based on antisipated expectations from high school kids who have never played one game at the collegient level. Even though this may be Fran's best series of recruiting still the experts have his best class at what sixth or seventh in the conference since he has been here?

I want to see what happens in the next three years. It's time for Fran to put up or shut up as they say. The last thing I want to see is the KF mindset settle in over the basketball program. Three years and that's it. No more lame excuses. What are we becoming little cyclones fans who make up excuses for their impotence in their athletic programs (see ISU football)? Fran it's time to man up and make this program arise within the next three years. If not it's time to get out the chopping block.
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I disagree that you compare recruiting rankings to other schools to gage hoe a coach stacks up in conference. Fran almost won a conference championship with bottom of the conference recruiting classes. Now he's recruiting middle of the conference classes. It makes more sense to do that comparison.

Also say he's ranked 30th in the nation and 8th in the Big 10. 8th can sound bad but it's not if the 4th team is 20th because there is virtually no difference between the 20th ranked class and the 30th. That means there is only a few schools with noticeably better recruiting, and those are the schools who have players leaving early for the NBA. That really levels the playing field.

You say it's time for Fran to put up or shut up. What does he have to do for you to consider him putting up?
 
PCHawk said:
I disagree that you compare recruiting rankings to other schools to gage hoe a coach stacks up in conference. Fran almost won a conference championship with bottom of the conference recruiting classes. Now he's recruiting middle of the conference classes. It makes more sense to do that comparison.

Also say he's ranked 30th in the nation and 8th in the Big 10. 8th can sound bad but it's not if the 4th team is 20th because there is virtually no difference between the 20th ranked class and the 30th. That means there is only a few schools with noticeably better recruiting, and those are the schools who have players leaving early for the NBA. That really levels the playing field.

You say it's time for Fran to put up or shut up. What does he have to do for you to consider him putting up?
Click to expand...

For me? Getting a point guard that will on par with top 20 programs. That would be a start. Let's say Cook is as good as the guy from Purdue. Their guard play got horribly exposed. That was the Big Best team. I'm not talking race. The Oregon Pt Guard was exceptionally quick and played extreme D.

As a side note, could you imagine what NC could have done if he was healthy? NC had a stable load of big good players as well. If Woody had gone there and red shirted, think he would have played much? Gonzaga had 3 bigs that would have started over Woody.

Purdue is what I call a Sweet 16 team 2017, but not consistently lately. Yes Iowa beat them at home, but still Iowa has a long way to go before getting to that point.

Putting up would be getting to the point of being a Sweet 16 program on a consistent basis. Not saying getting to the 16 but being one that realistically can. In Fran's years, we've had 1 team that maybe was that caliber....maybe.

FM is likely still missing some of those parts to get us there. Maybe a Sweet Team or 2 in the next 5 years. But not a consistent one. The Big has proven to be really weak. Being a middle to upper middle team in the Big isn't such a Big deal.
 
PCHawk said:
I disagree that you compare recruiting rankings to other schools to gage hoe a coach stacks up in conference. Fran almost won a conference championship with bottom of the conference recruiting classes. Now he's recruiting middle of the conference classes. It makes more sense to do that comparison.

Also say he's ranked 30th in the nation and 8th in the Big 10. 8th can sound bad but it's not if the 4th team is 20th because there is virtually no difference between the 20th ranked class and the 30th. That means there is only a few schools with noticeably better recruiting, and those are the schools who have players leaving early for the NBA. That really levels the playing field.

You say it's time for Fran to put up or shut up. What does he have to do for you to consider him putting up?
Click to expand...

Win the regular season conference title, the B1G tournament, and get to the sweet sixteen.
 
I voted Final Four based solely on South Carolina making it to the Final Four this year. It takes lightning in a bottle and a stud player like Thornwell carrying a team on his back for 2 weeks...thats about it. Iowa beat Maryland and Wisconsin back to back this year on the road, so its clearly possible for Iowa to do it.

For non blue blood schools, it also takes a ton of luck. Plain and simple. The NCAA tournament is a complete crap shoot for the most part. You have to get hot at the right time, you have to hope your opponent misses some shots, and you have to have some breaks go your way. All 4 of the final four teams this year had lucky breaks go their way in the NCAA tournament. See Gonzaga vs Northwestern...

UNC beat Oregon by 1 and Kentucky by 2 to reach the championship game. A few bounces go the other way and we have a different champion.
 
Is nobody going to call Gold on this crap? The B1G is likely the second or third best basketball conference. So what we had a down year this year and still had three teams in the sweet 16.

Look at the list of final four teams provided in this thread. The B1G has had 16 final four teams in the last 20 years, not including Maryland. I didn't dive into the numbers that closely with conference realignments and all that but I think I can safely say that's good for 2nd on the list, behind the ACC.

Okay so the national championship argument. Here is the last ten champs by conference:

ACC: 4
Big East: 3 (includes Louisville 2013 & UConn 2011)
Big 12: 1
SEC: 1
American: 1

The old Big East no longer exists and two of those championships belong to teams now in different conferences. So realistically, championships have been dominated by the ACC, and a few other blue bloods (Kansas, UConn, Kentucky).

MSU, UW, Pur, OSU, Mich, Indiana, Maryland, that's a pretty good place to start in terms of basketball success not to mention other teams Iowa, ILL, and Minny have had some as well. There are ups and downs for sure but to me the B1G is the second best basketball league.
 
Without having that PG that can break down the defense in crunch time (Maybe JoBo gets there), and with Fran's coaching breakdowns in the final minutes of games, seems unlikely we go far in the tourney. Unlikely doesn't mean can't happen, but unless we just blow teams out I never feel good about Iowa in close games. Those last second shots against Iowa always seem to fall.

Or maybe the bigger reason is that Iowa always seems to play a team that can't miss. Whether it's poor defense or just hot shooting.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Is nobody going to call Gold on this crap? The B1G is likely the second or third best basketball conference. So what we had a down year this year and still had three teams in the sweet 16.

Look at the list of final four teams provided in this thread. The B1G has had 16 final four teams in the last 20 years, not including Maryland. I didn't dive into the numbers that closely with conference realignments and all that but I think I can safely say that's good for 2nd on the list, behind the ACC.

Okay so the national championship argument. Here is the last ten champs by conference:

ACC: 4
Big East: 3 (includes Louisville 2013 & UConn 2011)
Big 12: 1
SEC: 1
American: 1

The old Big East no longer exists and two of those championships belong to teams now in different conferences. So realistically, championships have been dominated by the ACC, and a few other blue bloods (Kansas, UConn, Kentucky).

MSU, UW, Pur, OSU, Mich, Indiana, Maryland, that's a pretty good place to start in terms of basketball success not to mention other teams Iowa, ILL, and Minny have had some as well. There are ups and downs for sure but to me the B1G is the second best basketball league.
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Call me on what? You just called yourself. Let me help. 11 Elite Appearances in 10 years. 80 positions, 11 appearances. 2nd or 3rd? A weak 3rd maybe. The trend? How many NC's? I want it to be 2nd or best, but it isn't. It isn't 2nd or 3rd. Going 10 years is a stretch. 20 years a real stretch.

Being a fan is great. Being ridiculous is another issue. No one can really watch things last 2 years and think the Big is competitive. We had a good run for a few years.

2017 Elite - 0
2016 Elite - 0
2015 Elite - 2
2014 Elite - 3
2013 Elite - 2
2012 Elite - 1
2011 Elite - 1
2010 Elite - 1
2009 Elite - 1
2008 Elite - 0
 
HawkGold said:
Call me on what? You just called yourself. Let me help. 11 Elite Appearances in 10 years. 80 positions, 11 appearances. 2nd or 3rd? A weak 3rd maybe. The trend? How many NC's? I want it to be 2nd or best, but it isn't. It isn't 2nd or 3rd. Going 10 years is a stretch. 20 years a real stretch.

Being a fan is great. Being ridiculous is another issue. No one can really watch things last 2 years and think the Big is competitive. We had a good run for a few years.

2017 Elite - 0
2016 Elite - 0
2015 Elite - 2
2014 Elite - 3
2013 Elite - 2
2012 Elite - 1
2011 Elite - 1
2010 Elite - 1
2009 Elite - 1
2008 Elite - 0
Click to expand...

Okay so a quick Wiki search and I found the following. Over the last 5 years here's how the conferences stack up in elite 8 appearances:

ACC: 9
B1G: 7
SEC: 7
BE: 5
PAC 12: 4
B12: 3

As I said earlier you can change your time frame to make any point I suppose. College basketball is fairly cyclical.

Anything can happen in the tournament as well. Look at the ACC this year, they only got one team to the elite 8. Does that mean they are a worse conference than the SEC?

We all know the B1G has been down the last two years, but in the big picture they are still a premier basketball conference.

The only conference that I think you could make an argument over the B1G (outside of the ACC) is probably the SEC, due to Florida's championships and of course Kentucky's success. Top to bottom I'll take the B1G over the SEC any day.

So can you make a case for another conference over the B1G outside of the two I've named? I'd love to hear it. Maybe old Bill Walton could help you pimp the Pac12...
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Okay so a quick Wiki search and I found the following. Over the last 5 years here's how the conferences stack up in elite 8 appearances:

ACC: 9
B1G: 7
SEC: 7
BE: 5
PAC 12: 4
B12: 3

As I said earlier you can change your time frame to make any point I suppose. College basketball is fairly cyclical.

Anything can happen in the tournament as well. Look at the ACC this year, they only got one team to the elite 8. Does that mean they are a worse conference than the SEC?

We all know the B1G has been down the last two years, but in the big picture they are still a premier basketball conference.

The only conference that I think you could make an argument over the B1G (outside of the ACC) is probably the SEC, due to Florida's championships and of course Kentucky's success. Top to bottom I'll take the B1G over the SEC any day.

So can you make a case for another conference over the B1G outside of the two I've named? I'd love to hear it. Maybe old Bill Walton could help you pimp the Pac12...
Click to expand...

Thats funny. The Big 12 has only had 3 elite 8 teams over the past 5 years? BUT THEYRE THE BEST CONFERENCE IN COLLEGE BASKETBALL!!!!
 
NikeHawk21 said:
Okay so a quick Wiki search and I found the following. Over the last 5 years here's how the conferences stack up in elite 8 appearances:

ACC: 9
B1G: 7
SEC: 7
BE: 5
PAC 12: 4
B12: 3

As I said earlier you can change your time frame to make any point I suppose. College basketball is fairly cyclical.

Anything can happen in the tournament as well. Look at the ACC this year, they only got one team to the elite 8. Does that mean they are a worse conference than the SEC?

We all know the B1G has been down the last two years, but in the big picture they are still a premier basketball conference.

The only conference that I think you could make an argument over the B1G (outside of the ACC) is probably the SEC, due to Florida's championships and of course Kentucky's success. Top to bottom I'll take the B1G over the SEC any day.

So can you make a case for another conference over the B1G outside of the two I've named? I'd love to hear it. Maybe old Bill Walton could help you pimp the Pac12...
Click to expand...

I havent pimped anyone. You are silly. Great we are with the mighty SEC.
 
tksirius said:
Over 60% don't believe Fran can get us to a final four. Interesting.
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Iowa hasn't been there since 1980 and it took a HOF coach to do it.. This shouldn't be a surprise IMO. It's not like making the Final Four is a snap. Fran hasn't gotten us past the 2nd round in 7 years.. I'd be a homer to vote "Final Four" with a straight face.

OK - Butler, VCU, George Mason have done it.. Then so can Iowa, potentially. Most anything can happen.

It's hard to predict a coach's ceiling based solely on NCAA Tournament results.. It's such a flukey thing with a single elimination situation. Just ask Villanova and Duke this year.. And match ups dictate so much.. If you get to the Sweet 16, are you playing a double-digit seed that made it through, or a 1-2 seed?

What do I think Fran's ceiling is? I think it's possible he could win a Big 10 regular season title. Certainly contend for one. If you win the Big 10, or at least if you're right there, that will usually get you a top 2-3 seed in the dance, and then who knows - you're set up pretty nicely for a tournament run.
 
Last edited:
I wonder how many coaches there are in college that could guarantee conference championships at iowa. My guess is somewhere between 5 and 10.
 
HawkGold said:
I havent pimped anyone. You are silly. Great we are with the mighty SEC.
Click to expand...

I'm asking you if you can, which you can't. That's why I called you on it. You can run around saying things like the B1G sucks but you can't say why these other conferences are better.

Also, while we're at it I'll have to clean up another one of your errors. As much as it pains me to admit it, Wisconsin is a premier basketball school. 19 strait NCAA tournaments. 4 sweet 16s and 2 final fours since 2010. Can't really be argued.
 
NikeHawk21 said:
I'm asking you if you can, which you can't. That's why I called you on it. You can run around saying things like the B1G sucks but you can't say why these other conferences are better.

Also, while we're at it I'll have to clean up another one of your errors. As much as it pains me to admit it, Wisconsin is a premier basketball school. 19 strait NCAA tournaments. 4 sweet 16s and 2 final fours since 2010. Can't really be argued.
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I'll argue that one. Wisconsin had a premier basketball coach. They still don't recruit great so the only way they will continue their success is if Gard happens to be a premier coach too. He might me but the virdect isn't in yet.
 
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