What are your expectations for Adam Woodbury next year?

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
We'll do the same with some of the other frosh in different threads, but let's start with Woodbury as there has been some recent chatter on this pursuant to him being in the state tourney in DSM and some getting their first look at him. I'll check back in on this thread and offer my thoughts, as well as a few opinions from folks in the biz, but want you all to chime in first.

Minutes? Points? Rebounds? Overall impact to next year's team?
 
I'm not expecting too much out of the kid, he will be a dominant force that will alter many shots, but I dont know if he will be an offensive monster right away. I think as long as he doesn't get fatigued too quickly will be in most the game.
 
I'm expecting the same type of player that Chris Street was as a skinny freshman. about 12-15 min per game. 6 pt. 5 Feb avg. But look out as I think he could fill out and be a force like Chris was too years 2-4.
 
Tough to tell as 7 footers are notorious slow starters. But this team desperately needs a true center and no one knows how much Olaseni will develop and strengthen before next season. As of right now I think the Center position is AW's to lose and as long as he stays out of foul trouble I see him getting as many minutes as he can handle. For me the big question is not how much production we will get from AW but how much more production we will get from everyone else with his presence.

My guestimates at the numbers:
25 mpg
10 ppg
7 rpg
1.5 bpg

I cannot WAIT for next year. Can we just fast forward through football next fall? :D
 
I don't EXPECT much of anything. Predictions ate much harder, at least when it comes to stats...

I predict hell never be a big shot blocker.
 
I think we will get a better look at Woodbury when he plays Friedman on Ankeny Friday.
 
ssckelley said:
Tough to tell as 7 footers are notorious slow starters. But this team desperately needs a true center and no one knows how much Olaseni will develop and strengthen before next season. As of right now I think the Center position is AW's to lose and as long as he stays out of foul trouble I see him getting as many minutes as he can handle. For me the big question is not how much production we will get from AW but how much more production we will get from everyone else with his presence. My guestimates at the numbers:25 mpg10 ppg7 rpg1.5 bpgI cannot WAIT for next year. Can we just fast forward through football next fall? :D
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I like this
 
15-20 min
8 pts
5 reb
solid contributer who doesn't get the cheap fouls that McCabe does
 
I expect with to draw attention away from Basabe (and he will get back on track).

8 pts
8 rbs
2 blocks


Having someone of his size down low is going to help way more then his stat line will.
 
I predict that after a bad game there will be "I told you so" posts.

I predict that after a good game there will be "I told you so" posts.

I predict that herby will compare him to Leonard somewhere later in this thread.
 
By way of comparison, here are some center rankings from the class of 2011, and their stats this year:

RIVALS.COM CENTER RANKINGS FOR 2011

#2 Rakeem Christmas, Syracuse: 31 starts, 10.6mpg, 2.6/2.6/21 blocks
#3 Adjehi Baru, Charleston: 26.7mpg, 7.8/6.3/19 blocks
#4 Johnny O'Bryant, LSU: 21.2mpg, 8.3/6.7/20 blocks
#5 Michael Chandler, UCF Prep School
#6 Tyler Adams, Georgetown: heart issues, out indefinitely
#7 Willy Kouassi, Auburn: 10mpg, 1.6/2.6/16 blocks
#8 Zach Price, Louisville 5.4mpg, .7/1.1
#9 Angelo Choi, Arizona: 11.8mpg, 2.7/2.2/24 blocks
#10 Marshall Plumlee, Duke: redshirt
#14 Nnanna Egwu, Illinois: 9.7mpg, 1.9/1.5/20 blocks
#15 Malcom Gilbert, Pitt: 5.6mpg, 0.4/1.0/6 blocks
#18 Adrian Diaz, KSU: 10.4mpg, 3.4/2.5/10 blocks


SCOUT.COM
#1 Andre Drummond, UCONN: 28.6mpg, 10.1/7.6/85 blocks
#3 Kyle Wiltjer, Kentucky: 13mpg, 5.6/2.1/12 blocks

Obviously this doesn't take available minutes or personnel situations into account, as it will be different at different schools...but for the most part, and historically, true centers coming out of high school do not have big freshman years, statistically...it's far more rare when that happens and more likely when it doesn't.

I think Woodbury gets 15 minutes or less per game, around 5 points and 4 boards per game. When I look at the forward minutes, I'd like to think White, Basabe and McCabe can each be 30mpg players next year. I think Olaseni will get some more minutes, Meyer will get some minutes...Woodbury, Olaseni and Meyer will divvy up the 30 minutes that White, Woodbury and Basabe are not on the floor. Even if that winds up being 40 minutes, it's going to be tough for any one of those players to get up to 20mpg IMO.
 
Cydkar said:
I predict that after a bad game there will be "I told you so" posts.

I predict that after a good game there will be "I told you so" posts.

I predict that herby will compare him to Leonard somewhere later in this thread.
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For anyone to say either of those things during a freshman year, we'll be talking about folks who have no clue.
 
Jon, Iowa will only have 2 true centers next season in Olaseni and AW. I think you need to look at it that way in how the minutes are going to be split up. I know my predicted numbers are a little homerish but any predictions is a crap shoot at this point. We may get a better feel after PTL and practices start.
 
rjhindm said:
I expect with to draw attention away from Basabe (and he will get back on track).8 pts8 rbs2 blocksHaving someone of his size down low is going to help way more then his stat line will.
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FOR THE LAS TIME, Woody will NOT be a shot blocker at Iowa. He's averaging less than .4 blocks per game as a senior in HS. That will NOT translate into 2 blocks per game at the D1 level.

In all honesty I'm not too concerned about stats, I only really care about min. He can help the team without putting up huge numbers, and Fran won't give him pt unless he is helping.

Anything above ten min per game would be a bonus next year.
 
Duff, take his high school numbers (outside of FT) and shuck them out the window. They are skewed and do not give you much of an indication on what to expect at the college level.
 
ssckelley said:
Jon, Iowa will only have 2 true centers next season in Olaseni and AW. I think you need to look at it that way in how the minutes are going to be split up. I know my predicted numbers are a little homerish but any predictions is a crap shoot at this point. We may get a better feel after PTL and practices start.
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I don't look at it that way at all, because teams are not required to play a 'true center'.

Iowa's best lineup to start the year will be to have White, McCabe and Basabe in the front court. Are you going to tell me that you think Woodbury is going to produce at a higher rate than any one of those three? I just don't see that at all. Marble is also going to be on the floor and he has some size to him. I think Gessel can start from day one. That is as running team, something Fran likes to do.

Then as the game and opponent dictates, you work Woodbury, Meyer and Olaseni into the front court rotation.
 
Bottom line is that having a presence at the 5 makes Mel at the 4 an All Conference level talent instead of a head scratcher. In this way, Duff was 100% right. All Woody has to do is be good enough that the other teams big has to guard him.
 
I think he's a 20/12 guy :) ha, but seriously...I actually think Kyle Meyer may end up having the better career at Iowa...people are kind of forgetting about him...the dude is a beast.
 
ssckelley said:
Duff, take his high school numbers (outside of FT) and shuck them out the window. They are skewed and do not give you much of an indication on what to expect at the college level.
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I tend to side with Duff here...although, high school opponents are not going to go inside and attack Woodbury when most of their bigs are probably 6-5 to 6-7. Makes no sense to try and win that way unless you want to send in a goon to try and get Woodbury in foul trouble.

That said, I am not sure on how many good college shot blocks came from a background of less than a block a game in high school.
 
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