Vegas Says....

[AreWeThereYet]

You can almost pencil in a line for Iowa at 7.5 without looking at the team, just based on history.

Regular season wins, out of 19 seasons.
eight seasons with 7 or 8 wins.
five seasons with 6 or 9 wins.
three seasons over 9 wins.
three seasons under 6 wins.

The three season that Iowa tanked were KF's first two and GD's first year.
The six win seasons were 2001, 2006. 2007.

KF's regular season wins fit a Gaussian distribution remarkably well.

 

[tksirius]

I was on GoIowaAwesome and they had a post regarding some of the early season lines in games of interest to Iowa (-7 ISU, +5 Wis, -7 NW, -8 Neb). I didn't see the rest of the schedule, but if those are the early season lines for those games, then Iowa will be favored against everyone except Wisconsin and Penn State as things stand right now. Expectations should be that this team gets to at least 8 wins, possibly 11 (very optimistic), but probably end up with 9.

There really shouldn't be an excuse to lose any games other than Wisky & Pedo St. If the Iowa fan base has a spine, they should expect no less than 10 wins, IMO. Other than Wisky & the Pedos, the schedule is absolutely just cake with real frosting on top; not that whip cream crap.

 

[4thngoal]

That's why we have to beat those two as well. #1 to win the west and hopefully the big.
#2 beating those two with a win in Indy is how we get our rankings up there.
So pretty much we have to win it all to get any respect.

 

[hawkeyes87]

The annual @Fryowa makes up a cute lil fabrication to describe Iowa football and predicts 6-6. We remind him that Iowa has only went 6-6 or worse 3 times in the last 17 years, he's bound to get it right one of these times.

Since we're only talking regular-season wins, they've actually done this 4 times.
'01, '06, '07, '12

otoh,

I personally expect Iowa to win 9+ this year

they've done this a whopping 5 times in that span. Waaaaaaay more common!

Oh, and if you cut the sample down to, say, the last 12 years, 6 or under leads 3-2.

 

[tksirius]

Since we're only talking regular-season wins, they've actually done this 4 times.
'01, '06, '07, '12

otoh,

they've done this a whopping 5 times in that span. Waaaaaaay more common!

Oh, and if you cut the sample down to, say, the last 12 years, 6 or under leads 3-2.

 

[thefizz]

There really shouldn't be an excuse to lose any games other than Wisky & Pedo St. If the Iowa fan base has a spine, they should expect no less than 10 wins, IMO. Other than Wisky & the Pedos, the schedule is absolutely just cake with real frosting on top; not that whip cream crap.

I think Penn State won't be the same caliber team they were the past two seasons because of the severity of what they lose. If it wasn't in Happy Valley, I'd actually expect Iowa to win the game. The Purdue game could be fairly tricky because I think Jeff Brohm is a rising star as a head coach. Iowa should win that game, but it's football and things can go off script sometimes. Northwestern had one of the top run defenses in the Big 10 last year (only Ohio State gave up less yards per carry) and their front 7 next year will be just as good so that doesn't bode well for Iowa. Maryland could be the best team in the Big 10 that nobody is thinking about (what I mean is they could win 7 games when most people think they should win something like 4) and I think they'll run the ball as well as anybody in the conference with the exception of Wis, OSU, and Mich. That game is in Kinnick so I'd imagine Iowa should come away with that one. Iowa State could actually be a real challenge as well. Among returning RB's, nobody forced more missed tackles than David Montgomery and Kyle Kempt might be the best returning QB in the Big 12 not named Will Grier (take that for what it's worth). Bottom line is that while I do believe the schedule is friendly, I think there are some potential landmines out there and games that shouldn't be taken for granted.

 

[uihawk82]

I'm an optimist with a bit of a different take on what I get out of Iowa Football. I actually look at if the team is competitive and how close they are to a 2015 type season. It's really all I care about leading into the season. Ok, so we were 8-5 last year. If you look closer, of the 5 losses, 4 of the games could have gone either way without turnovers or maybe someone making a play on defense. So...in my opinion, 8-5 left you optimistic heading into this year.
.

At the same time we won one game, maybe two that we could have lost. What bothers me is KF stubbing his toe most every year except 2015 by losing 1 to 2 games the hawks should win.

I have no problem with formations and set up of the hawk offense but I do think we do not generally get enough out of it. The pro style if that is what you want to call it is also set up to strike with deep bombs, quick slants that split defenders and go for big gain, and to attack with great TEnds. KF has had some offenses like this and I am expecting more decisive passing game this year.

 

[uihawk82]

Uh, betting lines are MOVED by how people bet. Opening lines are the "bait".

Correct, dont bet early.

 

[uihawk82]

There really shouldn't be an excuse to lose any games other than Wisky & Pedo St. If the Iowa fan base has a spine, they should expect no less than 10 wins, IMO. Other than Wisky & the Pedos, the schedule is absolutely just cake with real frosting on top; not that whip cream crap.

But we are also talking KF as head coach who has a high likelihood of playing a few games to close to the vest, letting the unfavored opponent hang around and then beat the hawks in an upset.

I do think I see a little more killer instinct in Brian F and I hope he can get the hawk offense off to fast starts and keep the pedal down to get first downs, use up the clock but more importantly keep scoring.

The game at Purdue will be tough unless they lost a lot of their defensive players and have just an avg defense. jNW and Fitz usually gives KF fits, haha Fitz and fits. So the hawks could again be a 10 win team that only wins 7 or 8.

 

[AreWeThereYet]

Barry Alvarez was a .500 coach in the Big Ten. He wasn’t Vince Lombardi. Wisconsin’s success after Alvarez is more about Paul Chryst than Alvarez.

Alvarez's winning percentage was 0.604 by the way.
Fry's winning percentage was 0.613 at Iowa
Ferentz winning percentage 0.596 at Iowa (so far)

None are .500 coaches.

 

[revkev73]

Kirk is kind of drifting into that special category of...team getting doors blown off by talented opponents...

Yes, there are exceptions...but it is trending towards...lots more...gosh we don't seem to belong on the same field as this talented team.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Kirk is kind of drifting into that special category of...team getting doors blown off by talented opponents...

Yes, there are exceptions...but it is trending towards...lots more...gosh we don't seem to belong on the same field as this talented team.

Uh, I'd say it's trending toward "not measurable". 2016 Michigan and 2017 O$U negate the 2016 Rose Bowl, in one sense. The 2017 Outback Bowl was actually close into the 3rd quarter.

Frankly, those four games have one thing in common: nobody had ANY idea which Iowa team would show up!

 

[hawkdrummer1]

I think Penn State won't be the same caliber team they were the past two seasons because of the severity of what they lose. d.

Without Barkley to drive the offense...I'm hoping McSorley gets punked.

 

[tksirius]

The schedule really does setup nicely for Iowa. Anything less than 10 wins will be disappointing, IMO.

 

[revkev73]

What was the measurable vs Wisconsin last year? 62 yards? Inept comes to mind...Wisconsin has trumped Iowa...no pun intended....

 

[thefizz]

Without Barkley to drive the offense...I'm hoping McSorley gets punked.

Barkley is the highest profile player they lose, but they also lose Gesicki at TE, Jason Cabinda at LB, and Marcus Allen at S without any obvious replacements. The loss of Joe Moorhead as the OC could also be difficult to overcome. Penn State does have good talent, but I'm not sure they are able to "reload" the way that Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson have been able to.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

There really shouldn't be an excuse to lose any games other than Wisky & Pedo St. If the Iowa fan base has a spine, they should expect no less than 10 wins, IMO. Other than Wisky & the Pedos, the schedule is absolutely just cake with real frosting on top; not that whip cream crap.

Based on what? Remember, KF isn't a good coach and can't recruit, and BF doesn't belong as OC. So how do you figure 10 wins? Talent? Remember, recruiting sucks, and the schemes suck. Please, oh, please, on what do you base the 10-win "demand"?

(Psst, I know YOUR scheme...I'm just calling you out on it...)

 

[hawkeyebob62]

What was the measurable vs Wisconsin last year? 62 yards? Inept comes to mind...Wisconsin has trumped Iowa...no pun intended....

Last year's game has been played, can't be replayed, and has no bearing on any of THIS year's games.

OTOH, if KF and staff didn't learn from LAST year's game against Wisconsin it really doesn't matter what happens in the rest of the games. 11-1 with a loss to Wisconsin means Wisconsin has to lose two conference games. While they do have to go to Ann Arbor and State College, I don't see either of those teams being "better" than Wisconsin based on what each of those teams returns to their respective sides of the field.

Personally, I could see 9-3 or 10-2 regular season. Again, though, in the West, that could mean no better than second or third place.

 

[hawkeyes87]

Barkley is the highest profile player they lose, but they also lose Gesicki at TE, Jason Cabinda at LB, and Marcus Allen at S without any obvious replacements. The loss of Joe Moorhead as the OC could also be difficult to overcome. Penn State does have good talent, but I'm not sure they are able to "reload" the way that Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson have been able to.

Yep, this is the year- I can feel it!

They WILL hold the Nits under 600 yards!

 

[tksirius]

Based on what? Remember, KF isn't a good coach and can't recruit, and BF doesn't belong as OC. So how do you figure 10 wins? Talent? Remember, recruiting sucks, and the schemes suck. Please, oh, please, on what do you base the 10-win "demand"?

(Psst, I know YOUR scheme...I'm just calling you out on it...)