Vegas Says....

[InGoodCo]

Iowa hasn’t won 6 or fewer games since 2012, and that is the only 6 or fewer win season over the last 10 years. If you are willing to put your money where you mouth is, i’d Bet whatever you want that Iowa wins more than 6 games this year.

A tradition unlike any other.

The annual @Fryowa makes up a cute lil fabrication to describe Iowa football and predicts 6-6. We remind him that Iowa has only went 6-6 or worse 3 times in the last 17 years, he's bound to get it right one of these times.

 

[InGoodCo]

Hate to say it but Vegas is right way more than anyone else. Reporters and analysts can spin all the bullshit they want about this team or that team, but the folks with millions on the table are the best at this.

their number last season was 5.5 for Iowa. Iowa won 7 - the year before it was 7 and Iowa won 8 - The year before it was 6 and Iowa won 12. They haven't been very good with Iowa lately. But really - 6 isn't what they are predicting, they are setting a betting line. You know ALL of this, it doesn't stop you tho.

 

[InGoodCo]

The expectations are so high lmfao.

I have really high expectations for Iowa football in 18, but 6 is a betting line that I bet you see come up over the next few months. That said, he was replying to 6 win guy when Iowa regularly wins like 7 sometimes even 8 usually. (hopefully you can read my sarcasm there).

 

[InGoodCo]

I retweeted that.

 

[4thngoal]

I get the losses on defense...but no one thought Jackson was an all-American CB heading into last year. The cupboard is not bare (Rugumba, Hankins, Ojemudia to name a few). You also have a few highly rated recruits. There are three or four safeties also...the back four are a not a concern in my opinion...neither are the front starting four in the d-line. Is the depth good enough on the DL? We have guys like Reiff and others that have to make a step forward...but I'm thinking the DL is going to be very good. LB is the issue and rightly so...but we have athletes there...several of them. I trust Phil Parker to have them ready to play.

Wadley was special...but guys graduate and you have to replace them. We aren't replacing him with Sam Brownlee...no offense Sam. IKM and Toren Young proved last year they belong...they just need reps. I think this could be a much different running team...they are going to wear teams out. Our offensive line is going to be bigger than I can honestly ever remember. If you start Jackson, Reynolds, Render, Paulson, and Wirfs...thats 325, 308, 310, 310, and 320 up front. You put a back like Toren Young behind that size...with a fullback at 245 or so...you better have some beef upfront because a power running game is coming. I also think Ivory Kelly Martin is special. He is my pick to surprise some people. Good size, great burst, and he can make people miss.

That's about my read on it as well.
If we have a passing game it's also going to keep the wear down on the Ol and rb's. It will allow them to open holes when they can't stack the box.

 

[InGoodCo]

I personally expect Iowa to win 9+ this year and finish 1st or 2nd in the West. Is that a high enough expectation or do I need to go higher to not be talked down to?

 

[Fryowa]

their number last season was 5.5 for Iowa. Iowa won 7 - the year before it was 7 and Iowa won 8 - The year before it was 6 and Iowa won 12. They haven't been very good with Iowa lately. But really - 6 isn't what they are predicting, they are setting a betting line. You know ALL of this, it doesn't stop you tho.

Over the long haul, which you know is how probability works, Vegas is right. You can cherry pick individual seasons or even a tiny sample of seasons if you want, but betting lines are as accurate as it gets because they aren’t trying to get clicks, viewership, and social media views. There’s no “Mitch King fallacy,” and the lines aren’t set by how much the maker likes Team A or B.

It’s the reason betting exists. Because they do the best job of hitting dead center and making it difficult for people to win money by choosing over or under.

We’ve beat this to death in the past, just put your number up on the board in @AreWeThereYet ’s post and we can both eat crow.

 

[InGoodCo]

Over the long haul, which you know is how probability works, Vegas is right. You can cherry pick individual seasons or even a tiny sample of seasons if you want, but betting lines are as accurate as it gets because they aren’t trying to get clicks, viewership, and social media views. There’s no “Mitch King fallacy,” and the lines aren’t set by how much the maker likes Team A or B.

It’s the reason betting exists. Because they do the best job of hitting dead center and making it difficult for people to win money by choosing over or under.

We’ve beat this to death in the past, just put your number up on the board in @AreWeThereYet ’s post and we can both eat crow.

Oh yeah, we've beat it to death, every off season. I know how it works dude. I just said, they haven't been real good with Iowa lately. Also, cherry picking is not when you rattle off the last 3 seasons. It was just what I could remember.

 

[Fryowa]

Oh yeah, we've beat it to death, every off season. I know how it works dude. I just said, they haven't been real good with Iowa lately. Also, cherry picking is not when you rattle off the last 3 seasons. It was just what I could remember.

Did you go try La Juanita’s yet?

 

[eveningnewsteam]

My ordering would be.

Barry Alvarez = consistency + aggressiveness + continuity

Superior defense + Power running ball control offense that will plow inferior teams under.

One of the better teams in college football in the trenches and at linebacker.

Player development program on par with Iowa's

Recruits well locally local market. Milwaukee, Chicago, and Minneapolis are the local recruiting market.

Well chosen coaching

QB's and WR's have been adequate.

The one thing that truly amazes me about Wisconsin's program is how Alvarez has managed all of the coaching transitions over 25 years without any real drop-off at any point.

Barry Alvarez was a .500 coach in the Big Ten. He wasn’t Vince Lombardi. Wisconsin’s success after Alvarez is more about Paul Chryst than Alvarez.

 

[AreWeThereYet]

Barry Alvarez was a .500 coach in the Big Ten. He wasn’t Vince Lombardi. Wisconsin’s success after Alvarez is more about Paul Chryst than Alvarez.

Oh yeah, that guy. I had a feeling I was leaving something out. Don't sell Alvarez short. A .500 Big Ten record is spectacular considering where they started out. Camp Randall was a place to party and watch a team with a W taped to the front of it's helmet get hammered.

 

[AreWeThereYet]

OK, It's been a while since Wisconsin had a W taped on the front of their helmet.

 

[tksirius]

I personally expect Iowa to win 9+ this year and finish 1st or 2nd in the West. Is that a high enough expectation or do I need to go higher to not be talked down to?

 

[revkev73]

I am not sure about how Iowa will do this fall...I hope well...and that we are all surprised.

I just wonder, for FB and BB, where the "Iowa Toughness" went to...teams knowing, win or lose, Iowa was going to be one of their biggest battles, fight for every inch of ground, fight for every ball up for grabs...and know after you played Iowa, even if you win, a toll was taken on your team that will carry over for the next couple of weeks.

Such toughness made Iowa feared and hard to bet against...

 

[4thngoal]

O/u are like side action as close to 50/50 as they can get. That's why you bet 100 to win 90 after the juice.

Over the long haul, which you know is how probability works, Vegas is right. You can cherry pick individual seasons or even a tiny sample of seasons if you want, but betting lines are as accurate as it gets because they aren’t trying to get clicks, viewership, and social media views. There’s no “Mitch King fallacy,” and the lines aren’t set by how much the maker likes Team A or B.

It’s the reason betting exists. Because they do the best job of hitting dead center and making it difficult for people to win money by choosing over or under.

We’ve beat this to death in the past dead, just put your number up on the board in @AreWeThereYet ’s post and we can both eat crow.

They try to hit dead center on pretty much any bet that is close to a 50/50 bet. That's why the payout is only 100% minus the juice.
It's also why you can't take an underdog, and say never mind the points, they will straight up win and get 150 or 200% return.
They are playing the numbers. If lot's of money comes in on one side, they adjust those numbers to minimize potential losses. That's also why they add the .5 because 7 would be a push 6 is to low and 8 is to high. If it were just 7, to many would take the over. Yet they are not going to win 7.5 games. They will win a whole number of games. So it doesn't matter if it's 7.1 or 7.9.

 

[hawkeyes87]

If lot's of money comes in on one side, they adjust those numbers to minimize potential losses. That's also why they add the .5 because 7 would be a push 6 is to low and 8 is to high. If it were just 7, to many would take the over. Yet they are not going to win 7.5 games. They will win a whole number of games. So it doesn't matter if it's 7.1 or 7.9.

I'm betting you got that from "Gambling for Dummies".

 

[4thngoal]

I'm betting you got that from "Gambling for Dummies".

Lol hardly.
It's all about numbers. Money, lines, payouts, all of it. It's all tied together. Sometimes the odds are way in their favor and other times barely in their favor.
It like betting $100 on #21 on roulette, or betting on black. It's a mathematical equation and nothing else.

 

[Fryowa]

I'm betting you got that from "Gambling for Dummies".

I have more than a good grasp of gambling and more experience than I should, but I know full well that all gambling is for dummies.

 

[thefizz]

We're just lil ole Iowa.

"The schedule features several toss-up games such as visits to Indiana and Purdue, along with a rivalry contest against Iowa State. I'm pegging Iowa for seven regular-season wins again."

https://www.sportsline.com/insiders...eam-in-the-big-10/?ttag=SL18_nl_247_iowa_0523

I was on GoIowaAwesome and they had a post regarding some of the early season lines in games of interest to Iowa (-7 ISU, +5 Wis, -7 NW, -8 Neb). I didn't see the rest of the schedule, but if those are the early season lines for those games, then Iowa will be favored against everyone except Wisconsin and Penn State as things stand right now. Expectations should be that this team gets to at least 8 wins, possibly 11 (very optimistic), but probably end up with 9.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

Over the long haul, which you know is how probability works, Vegas is right. You can cherry pick individual seasons or even a tiny sample of seasons if you want, but betting lines are as accurate as it gets because they aren’t trying to get clicks, viewership, and social media views. There’s no “Mitch King fallacy,” and the lines aren’t set by how much the maker likes Team A or B.

It’s the reason betting exists. Because they do the best job of hitting dead center and making it difficult for people to win money by choosing over or under.

We’ve beat this to death in the past, just put your number up on the board in @AreWeThereYet ’s post and we can both eat crow.

Uh, betting lines are MOVED by how people bet. Opening lines are the "bait".