Vaccine rollout

HuckFinn said:
Thanks for telling me I used the wrong word. I know what a stimulant is, as well as a stimulus. Look up my word. Also, irregardless is incorrect. “Regardless” is the word you are grasping for. And yes, I ended my sentence with a preposition on purpose to confuse you. More importantly, you seem to have no idea of the value of the feds stepping in to provide a stimulus. But hey. Typical repub economy theory. How has that worked out
For you? Just keep ignoring those in need and congratulate yourself on your reading of the fossil fuel market.
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Let me make sure I understand your position here. Are you suggesting that printing a trillion dollars or more and pushing bond rates to zero does not push up asset prices? Have you looked at housing prices in the past year? Oh, never mind you live in Shitsville Midwestia where no one wants to live. My neighborhood is up over 20% in under a year. Have you seen the stock market chart for the past 12 months?

The level of propaganda someone like you must consume to mindlessly bleat "MOAR STIMULUS, SIR" while berating the "wealth gap" must be remarkable. Just turn around and blame the GOP!
 
okeefe4prez said:
Let me make sure I understand your position here. Are you suggesting that printing a trillion dollars or more and pushing bond rates to zero does not push up asset prices? Have you looked at housing prices in the past year? Oh, never mind you live in Shitsville Midwestia where no one wants to live. My neighborhood is up over 20% in under a year. Have you seen the stock market chart for the past 12 months?

The level of propaganda someone like you must consume to mindlessly bleat "MOAR STIMULUS, SIR" while berating the "wealth gap" must be remarkable. Just turn around and blame the GOP!
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OK. I give up. You know everything about everything. And because I have differing views I just soak up propaganda. Here is one of the pieces for you to choke on: How has the economy done with comparisons between Repub andDem president’s going back several elections? On both policy and morality, I would not vote for a repub almost without exception. In the meantime, “Trickle down, money! Trickle down”!
 
okeefe4prez said:
Let me make sure I understand your position here. Are you suggesting that printing a trillion dollars or more and pushing bond rates to zero does not push up asset prices? Have you looked at housing prices in the past year? Oh, never mind you live in Shitsville Midwestia where no one wants to live. My neighborhood is up over 20% in under a year. Have you seen the stock market chart for the past 12 months?
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Nope. Prices are ridiculous and there’s almost zero supply here it Shitsville too

We’re setting up the next huge house of cards because folks are building and buying houses that will be worth maybe two thirds of what they’re paying for them in a couple years. Materials and demand will crash at some point and you'll be able to build a house new for less than what the identical house built today sold for. People are underestimating this real estate thing and what it's going to do.

The people really winning right now are folks who are retiring. Colleague of mine and his wife built a house three years ago for $375k (in my area that's a hell of a nice house) with the intent of staying there till they croaked, and both would be retiring in 2022. He told me he paid half in cash and the rest was at damn near zero.

They had an early thirties couple from Sioux Falls (60 miles away) give them an unsolicited offer of $475k out of nowhere. Colleague declined, they immediately came back with $500k and settled at $510k. Now being about $150k ahead they bought half a small duplex until the market chills and then they'll still be able to get into the same type of house and be money ahead.

This thing is fucking crazy.
 
Fryowa said:
Nope. Prices are ridiculous and there’s almost zero supply here it Shitsville too

We’re setting up the next huge house of cards because folks are building and buying houses that will be worth maybe two thirds of what they’re paying for them in a couple years. Materials and demand will crash at some point and you'll be able to build a house new for less than what the identical house built today sold for. People are underestimating this real estate thing and what it's going to do.

The people really winning right now are folks who are retiring. Colleague of mine and his wife built a house three years ago for $375k (in my area that's a hell of a nice house) with the intent of staying there till they croaked, and both would be retiring in 2022. He told me he paid half in cash and the rest was at damn near zero.

They had an early thirties couple from Sioux Falls (60 miles away) give them an unsolicited offer of $475k out of nowhere. Colleague declined, they immediately came back with $500k and settled at $510k. Now being about $150k ahead they bought half a small duplex until the market chills and then they'll still be able to get into the same type of house and be money ahead.

This thing is fucking crazy.
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Damn, that's insane. It's all gonna depend on the Fed. If they really leave Quantitative Easing and near 0% rates in effect until 2023 as they claim and can use that QE to scare off rate hikes, I could honestly see them pulling another 18 months of 2-3% month over month housing gains where even a big drop would only reset to today's crazy prices (which will seem great in 18 months if that run happens). I really don't see how they can let it get that far out of control, though.

I do think the credit quality of the banks is dramatically higher than it was in 2007-08 and I don't have any clue how much foreign capital is sloshing through that has zero sensitivity to rates and just wants to park cash in the US because it is the nicest house on the block. When I sold my condo in Evanston I listed it for $325k knowing it would close around $300k. Within an hour of listing it my realtor got a call from a foreign investor who would buy it sight unseen for $280k with closing any time from 3 business days to 90 business days, whenever I wanted. She said she had worked with the investor's agent before and that the investor had a business model of just offering 20% under ask on every reasonably priced property in certain locations and using a property manager to rent them out. All cash deals. That is a big part of what has driven California and Vancouver to insane levels and if we have a massive housing shortage I have to think it's going to take off all over the place. A lot of what starts in California spreads out to the rest of the country in due course.
 
If you are voting on morality how do you chose between Lucifer and the Anti Christ?

I don't think Prez suggested that Repub or Dem had anything to do with monetary policy. It is what is done regardless of the oval office. Clinton in a lot of ways was one of the most conservative presidents we've had and Trump/Bush had strong socialist tendencies. If you think Presidents have much sway on economic policy, you are sorely mistaken.

So much is just perception. Carter for example had much to do with the military revamping that Reagan got credit for.

Bottom line is that timing has everything to do with everything, not much about Presidential policies.
HuckFinn said:
OK. I give up. You know everything about everything. And because I have differing views I just soak up propaganda. Here is one of the pieces for you to choke on: How has the economy done with comparisons between Repub and Dem president’s going back several elections? On both policy and morality, I would not vote for a repub almost without exception. In the meantime, “Trickle down, money! Trickle down”!
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okeefe4prez said:
Damn, that's insane. It's all gonna depend on the Fed. If they really leave Quantitative Easing and near 0% rates in effect until 2023 as they claim and can use that QE to scare off rate hikes, I could honestly see them pulling another 18 months of 2-3% month over month housing gains where even a big drop would only reset to today's crazy prices (which will seem great in 18 months if that run happens). I really don't see how they can let it get that far out of control, though.

I do think the credit quality of the banks is dramatically higher than it was in 2007-08 and I don't have any clue how much foreign capital is sloshing through that has zero sensitivity to rates and just wants to park cash in the US because it is the nicest house on the block. When I sold my condo in Evanston I listed it for $325k knowing it would close around $300k. Within an hour of listing it my realtor got a call from a foreign investor who would buy it sight unseen for $280k with closing any time from 3 business days to 90 business days, whenever I wanted. She said she had worked with the investor's agent before and that the investor had a business model of just offering 20% under ask on every reasonably priced property in certain locations and using a property manager to rent them out. All cash deals. That is a big part of what has driven California and Vancouver to insane levels and if we have a massive housing shortage I have to think it's going to take off all over the place. A lot of what starts in California spreads out to the rest of the country in due course.
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The hidden snake in the grass about Banks is that deposits are created by lending. Lending has fallen off a cliff. Lending is where banks make money. Money supply is way up. Velocity is way down. Records for both. Something isn't smelling good.
 
okeefe4prez said:
I went heavily long on oil stocks back in October and November when the pundits called oil uninvestable and another group of pundits claimed a Biden win would kill the oil industry. Why did I go long oil? Because I fully expect the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to engage in completely reckless monetary printing that will cause an oil spike similar to what we saw in 2007 on the heels of 5 years of massive "stimulus" implemented after 9/11 that saw oil hit $140 a barrel and housing prices to go through the roof. I'm not going to blame the President for it, but when gas hits $4 a gallon this summer and the Left Wing Party of Big Government pisses and moans about "gas company price gouging" I'm going to laugh my ass. "WE'RE HERE TO HELP THE LITTLE GUY." Yeah right. My Valero stock just crossed a 100% gain and my Exxon position is close to 100% gain so I hope they keep that money printer going until 2023 like the Fed has promised.
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Ahh, the Commissar's Press Secretary said yesterday no one could have predicted oil going to the moon a year ago. Well, on May 17, 2021, I called it. Actually I called it before then and got positioned in oil when it was dirt cheap.

Psaki Says No One Could've Predicted Inflation Crisis, But Even Liberal Economists Predicted It - YouTube
 
okeefe4prez said:
Ahh, the Commissar's Press Secretary said yesterday no one could have predicted oil going to the moon a year ago. Well, on May 17, 2021, I called it. Actually I called it before then and got positioned in oil when it was dirt cheap.

Psaki Says No One Could've Predicted Inflation Crisis, But Even Liberal Economists Predicted It - YouTube
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Nice call.

Found this funny from HuckFinn "OK. I give up. You know everything about everything."

Apparently, you have a pretty good track record. Guess who I would take advice from if I had to choose?
 
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okeefe4prez said:
Damn, that's insane. It's all gonna depend on the Fed. If they really leave Quantitative Easing and near 0% rates in effect until 2023 as they claim and can use that QE to scare off rate hikes, I could honestly see them pulling another 18 months of 2-3% month over month housing gains where even a big drop would only reset to today's crazy prices (which will seem great in 18 months if that run happens). I really don't see how they can let it get that far out of control, though.

I do think the credit quality of the banks is dramatically higher than it was in 2007-08 and I don't have any clue how much foreign capital is sloshing through that has zero sensitivity to rates and just wants to park cash in the US because it is the nicest house on the block. When I sold my condo in Evanston I listed it for $325k knowing it would close around $300k. Within an hour of listing it my realtor got a call from a foreign investor who would buy it sight unseen for $280k with closing any time from 3 business days to 90 business days, whenever I wanted. She said she had worked with the investor's agent before and that the investor had a business model of just offering 20% under ask on every reasonably priced property in certain locations and using a property manager to rent them out. All cash deals. That is a big part of what has driven California and Vancouver to insane levels and if we have a massive housing shortage I have to think it's going to take off all over the place. A lot of what starts in California spreads out to the rest of the country in due course.
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Tons, tons of foreign investment in CA and places like Vancouver, to be sure. Have friends in Vancouver. Chinese investment there seems really high, as it is here in LA, I believe. There's also a significant number of Iranians here in West LA and based on the big black Mercedes they all seem to drive, they don't seem poor.

I'm renting here in LA right now. People tell me I need to bring over 50% down payment just to compete. Nope. LA, I think, is more "bubbly" than some areas of the country and I don't need to be underwater.!
 
racerhawk said:
Tons, tons of foreign investment in CA and places like Vancouver, to be sure. Have friends in Vancouver. Chinese investment there seems really high, as it is here in LA, I believe. There's also a significant number of Iranians here in West LA and based on the big black Mercedes they all seem to drive, they don't seem poor.

I'm renting here in LA right now. People tell me I need to bring over 50% down payment just to compete. Nope. LA, I think, is more "bubbly" than some areas of the country and I don't need to be underwater.!
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That post was a year old, I just bumped this thread because of my badass fomenting oil bubble call from last May.

Remember that time we went to Merkle's and watched that epic Iowa-MSU double OT game? I remember back then everyone was saying "BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER" and I refused to buy in Chicago for the very reason you cited and I bought my condo in 2010 from some jackass who lost $100k on it by buying in late 2006.

Man, I wish didn't have a flip phone back then and had some pics to share from that day. It was epic.
 
okeefe4prez said:
That post was a year old, I just bumped this thread because of my badass fomenting oil bubble call from last May.

Remember that time we went to Merkle's and watched that epic Iowa-MSU double OT game? I remember back then everyone was saying "BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER" and I refused to buy in Chicago for the very reason you cited and I bought my condo in 2010 from some jackass who lost $100k on it by buying in late 2006.

Man, I wish didn't have a flip phone back then and had some pics to share from that day. It was epic.
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Yes!! I remember that day. I also miss Chicago at times. Feel free to message me directly, but where in the glorious south do you live, exactly?
 
racerhawk said:
Yes!! I remember that day. I also miss Chicago at times. Feel free to message me directly, but where in the glorious south do you live, exactly?
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This will make you miss Chicago. 'Member that time we went to the Iowa-Northwestern hoops game and it was January or February, cold as balls, and that homeless dude was sprawled out on the el tracks at Howard and all train traffic was stopped and we stood there on the platform like assholes freezing our nuts off? Then we got to the game and fucking Alford lost it. Remember that? Do you miss that?

Anyway I moved to SC in the northwest corner of the state on the edge of the foothills of the Piedmont Mountains, which gently blend into the Great Smoky Mountains if you go north 10 miles. I live just outside of town limits and the property taxes are only $1500 a month on a big 5BR house and it is impossible to annex under existing state law. It's about 65-70% Republican, which is much better than the 90% Democrat area I lived in up in the People's Republik of Evanston. We get 6 weeks of winter where the temps usually break 40 during the day and the summer is similar to Iowa, but the hottest days never break 100 because of the altitude. It's a fantastic area, but if you hear of any California liberals looking to move here tell them it is awful and to stay in California.
 
okeefe4prez said:
This will make you miss Chicago. 'Member that time we went to the Iowa-Northwestern hoops game and it was January or February, cold as balls, and that homeless dude was sprawled out on the el tracks at Howard and all train traffic was stopped and we stood there on the platform like assholes freezing our nuts off? Then we got to the game and fucking Alford lost it. Remember that? Do you miss that?

Anyway I moved to SC in the northwest corner of the state on the edge of the foothills of the Piedmont Mountains, which gently blend into the Great Smoky Mountains if you go north 10 miles. I live just outside of town limits and the property taxes are only $1500 a month on a big 5BR house and it is impossible to annex under existing state law. It's about 65-70% Republican, which is much better than the 90% Democrat area I lived in up in the People's Republik of Evanston. We get 6 weeks of winter where the temps usually break 40 during the day and the summer is similar to Iowa, but the hottest days never break 100 because of the altitude. It's a fantastic area, but if you hear of any California liberals looking to move here tell them it is awful and to stay in California.
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I DO NOT MISS losing to Northwestern under Alford. I do miss your vermillion sweater, though. Remember that?

Sounds like you found a great spot. I'll have to look at where I want to ultimately live after my tour of duty (so to speak) ends in California. BTW I love the Smoky Mtns.

I'll be sure to tell all of the people that own tiny $2M homes here to sell them for $2.5M, take that money, and buy a McMansion in SC. They'll pay cash. It will be like a a reverse manifest destiny kinda deal.

Have you joined any backwoods militias yet? Oaf Keepers?
 
racerhawk said:
I DO NOT MISS losing to Northwestern under Alford. I do miss your vermillion sweater, though. Remember that?

Sounds like you found a great spot. I'll have to look at where I want to ultimately live after my tour of duty (so to speak) ends in California. BTW I love the Smoky Mtns.

I'll be sure to tell all of the people that own tiny $2M homes here to sell them for $2.5M, take that money, and buy a McMansion in SC. They'll pay cash. It will be like a a reverse manifest destiny kinda deal.

Have you joined any backwoods militias yet? Oaf Keepers?
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1652461956666.png
 
MelroseHawkins said:
Nice call.

Found this funny from HuckFinn "OK. I give up. You know everything about everything."

Apparently, you have a pretty good track record. Guess who I would take advice from if I had to choose?
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Hey bro, I'm out of Valero. Wrote a call option at $140 a while back and took in $15 per share of premium and got taken out at 140 on Friday. Still long Exxon because their Guyana deal is just an absolute goldmine, but I'm not as bullish on pureplay refining as I was. Exxon has plenty of refining exposure plus their whole upstream business. Just wanted to keep you up to date. Bought at $39, wrote several call options totaling close to $30 per share, sold at $140. Fantastic trade, but it was time to let her go. The price was getting too high and Valero is too small to be one of my core holdings, but it coupled with Exxon saved me from having a disastrous 2022 in the market.
 
okeefe4prez said:
Hey bro, I'm out of Valero. Wrote a call option at $140 a while back and took in $15 per share of premium and got taken out at 140 on Friday. Still long Exxon because their Guyana deal is just an absolute goldmine, but I'm not as bullish on pureplay refining as I was. Exxon has plenty of refining exposure plus their whole upstream business. Just wanted to keep you up to date. Bought at $39, wrote several call options totaling close to $30 per share, sold at $140. Fantastic trade, but it was time to let her go. The price was getting too high and Valero is too small to be one of my core holdings, but it coupled with Exxon saved me from having a disastrous 2022 in the market.
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ConocoPhillips has done me well. Did you offset the call?
 
HawkGold said:
ConocoPhillips has done me well. Did you offset the call?
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I bought COP for $42 a share and lost it all on $55 calls. Man. I was just writing calls on shares I owned.

COP is gonna kill it in the future. Shell and BP have a bunch of lunatics driving their operations. Shell sold COP all of their Permian Basin assets for a song back in 2020. COP is seriously going to absolutely print money for the next two decades. Them and XOM are so well positioned it ain't funny. I don't know what Chevron plans to do, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them drastically underperform. They don't have a gravy train of easy to extract oil like Exxon and Conoco.
 
racerhawk said:
Ok So I'm on a big zoom call now and I busted out laughing. I think someone thinks I'm laughing at them. Risks of zoom and two screens!!
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Always keep yourself muted on Zoom meetings until called upon, and never use a camera.

My single greatest achievement in this life is that I’ve made myself valuable enough to my employer that I haven’t gotten fired for repeatedly refusing to use a webcam on Zoom calls. I will die on that hill.
 
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